Today’s report by the U.S. Fed’s Mr. Bernanke for the banking committee of the Senate will certainly be widely followed. A highlight of it would be the outlook for the economy, a major market theme now for the prospects of further action for the USD. A month ago, the Fed’s policy included a possible turnaround for the economy later this year. With the incoming economic data showing a slowdown of the contraction, there are indeed some signs that the 4th quarter 2008 was the nadir of recession. More proof of that is needed, of course, but we reckon Mr. Bernanke will put his views that way. If that is the case, the USD will tend to more weakness today.That is because the U.S. inflation theme will come up again, based on the recent mammoth money supply expansion causing it, once the economy gains firmer footing again. Granted, it is only an expectation, but what else is really moving the markets?
Accordingly, we revise our trading range prospectives in the major pairs for today’s trading as shown below, preferring to sell the dollar on strength. Mr. Bernanke will start his semi-annual presentation of the Federal bank monetary policy at 16:00 CET.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair is on a recovery path in European morning trading and is currently at 1.2790. We see some setback setting in soon today but not below the 1.2740 mark, from where another upmove, this time against resistance at 1.2860, is in the cards.
GBP / USD
Cable has lost its previous upward steam in early European trading and is now back from the 1.4650 resistance level at 1.4520. We expect a sideways market to develop from the 1.4480 support level to the 1.4620 upward resistance level to set in today.
USD / CHF
Again the dollar came under pressure in the morning European trading hours, losing about 100 pips to the current 1.1550 mark against the Swiss franc. We expect another testing of the 1.1480 lows today but first some recovery to the 1.1610 resistance level is likely.
USD / JPY
In late Asian and European morning trading, the dollar gained further ground against the yen and is currently priced at 95.40, having previously tested the 95.60 resistance level. We see a downward correction in the making, leading to prices around 94.70 today.
Accordingly, we revise our trading range prospectives in the major pairs for today’s trading as shown below, preferring to sell the dollar on strength. Mr. Bernanke will start his semi-annual presentation of the Federal bank monetary policy at 16:00 CET.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair is on a recovery path in European morning trading and is currently at 1.2790. We see some setback setting in soon today but not below the 1.2740 mark, from where another upmove, this time against resistance at 1.2860, is in the cards.
GBP / USD
Cable has lost its previous upward steam in early European trading and is now back from the 1.4650 resistance level at 1.4520. We expect a sideways market to develop from the 1.4480 support level to the 1.4620 upward resistance level to set in today.
USD / CHF
Again the dollar came under pressure in the morning European trading hours, losing about 100 pips to the current 1.1550 mark against the Swiss franc. We expect another testing of the 1.1480 lows today but first some recovery to the 1.1610 resistance level is likely.
USD / JPY
In late Asian and European morning trading, the dollar gained further ground against the yen and is currently priced at 95.40, having previously tested the 95.60 resistance level. We see a downward correction in the making, leading to prices around 94.70 today.
