The USD proved to be of remarkable stability recently, just shaking off every whiff of weakness in the day-to-day market, even against the yen, the heavyweight Sumo wrestler. The further falling oil price certainly was of help, but also the money flow into the longer-term U.S. bond market, lured by prospective capital gains based on the Fed’s buying program here. That could happen to the euro as well later this year, but so far every increase in the EUR / USD to the resistance lines failed. In European morning trading, the USD continues its technical retreat from yesterday’s upmove.

We expect the USD to remain in its mild selling tone today, and adjust our upper / lower trading ranges in the major pairs somewhat downwards accordingly. The EUR / USD pair is preparing another attack on its resistance lines, but having failed yesterday to confirm its wedge formation we do not expect a bold move of that market today.

by George Clement

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
The pair is in a slow up movement in European morning trading, currently consolidating its higher levels around 1.2900 level. We see the 1.2900 support to holding in today’s trading, allowing the pair to move to the 1.2990 resistance.

GBP / USD
Cable moved further up in late Asian and early European trading to a high of now 1.4520. We see the 1.4550 resistance level being tested soon, where we expect first a setback at 1.4480, and then a sideways market between 1.4520 and 1.4480.

USD / CHF
The dollar gained some ground against the Swiss franc in early European trading and is currently priced at 1.1590. We don’t see much more upmove setting in today and see the downside limited at 1.1520.

USD / JPY
In a decisive upmove, the dollar gained strength against the yen in all of Asian and European morning trading. Currently priced at 91.75, we see the upmove ending soon, at resistance at 92.10. The downside is now well-supported at 91.40.