After the U.S. Senate approved the stimulus program, the dollar strengthened again, wiping out all day wins in the EUR / USD during yesterday’s trading. The once-again mixed mood in stock markets helped the dollar against other currencies, too, but there is some homemade weakness against the dollar in other currencies as well. Take Japan, with possible interventions against the strong yen, and Switzerland, where the largest bank, UBS, reported today a record loss of nearly CHF 20 billion ($17 billion) for 2008 - which amounts to 4% of the country’s GDP.

For today’s trading, we expect the dollar to show some weakness, especially in the EUR / USD pair, which is oversold now, and where the swing market is likely to continue - presently trading on support. There are no economic data known as market movers scheduled for today.

by George Clement

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
The pair tested the support level around 1.2800 in late Asian trading and is now in a recovery move this European morning, currently priced at 1.2910. We see this move continuing in today’s trading, again breaking the resistance point at 1.2950 and eventually testing the 1.3050 barrrier again.

GBP / USD
Still in an unbroken uptrend for 7 days now, cable has just tested the uptrend line in early European trading, with the market currently at 1.4790. We expect another upmove to set in today, which would lead to a test of the 1.4950 level.

USD / CHF
Having reached its highs around 1.1780 against the Swiss franc in late Asian trading, the dollar fell back in European morning trading to the current 1.1650 mark. With the usual small upward corrections, we see this downmove gaining more ground today, testing the 1.1550 support level.

USD / JPY
Late Asian trading saw almost no volatility in a slight selling tone for the dollar against the yen. Testing the support zone around 91.00 and currently trading at 91.15, we see a break of this level today, most probably running into stop selling around 90.80, which would send prices even lower, to the 90.00 level.