Recently the market speculated about another early rate cut by the ECB (decision due tomorrow). Now this expectation has faded and, with the still unchanged interest rate differential perhaps for another month, the euro is on the upmove against the near zero interest rate currencies - the dollar and yen and, to a lesser degree, against the Swiss franc. The EUR / USD pair might be influenced today by the U.S. Senate discussion of the mammoth "stimulus package," which is expected to be voted on at the end of the week.
For today’s trading, we expect a sideways movement for the USD after its weak performance, leaving it on short-term oversold levels. Note the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index for January today at 16:00 CET, usually not specifically market-moving but, since the focus increasingly concentrates on U.S. economic data for any sign of stabilization, it could have influence. The index (last 40.1%) is expected to show another slight decrease.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair is in a downward correction in European morning trading and is currently trading at 1.2955. We see the market finding support around 1.2900 today and expect another upmove later, which will be limited to resistance at 1.3040, the upper end of the new sideways trend channel.
GBP / USD
Cable continues to trade within its sideways trend channel, currently priced near its upper end at 1.4380. We see the present slight upmove bumping into resistance at 1.4440 and the downside limited to 1.4320.
USD / CHF
The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc in early European trading and is currently priced at 1.1530 and moving against the 1.1560 resistance level. We expect this level to be tested today but not broken. The resulting down moves then are limited to support at 1.1460.
USD / JPY
Still characterized by very low volatility, the dollar / yen market lost some territory in late Asian trading and is currently priced at 89.05. We consider the 89.00 area as support for today’s trading but do not expect much of an upmove from there, with the maximum limited to 89.50.
For today’s trading, we expect a sideways movement for the USD after its weak performance, leaving it on short-term oversold levels. Note the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index for January today at 16:00 CET, usually not specifically market-moving but, since the focus increasingly concentrates on U.S. economic data for any sign of stabilization, it could have influence. The index (last 40.1%) is expected to show another slight decrease.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair is in a downward correction in European morning trading and is currently trading at 1.2955. We see the market finding support around 1.2900 today and expect another upmove later, which will be limited to resistance at 1.3040, the upper end of the new sideways trend channel.
GBP / USD
Cable continues to trade within its sideways trend channel, currently priced near its upper end at 1.4380. We see the present slight upmove bumping into resistance at 1.4440 and the downside limited to 1.4320.
USD / CHF
The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc in early European trading and is currently priced at 1.1530 and moving against the 1.1560 resistance level. We expect this level to be tested today but not broken. The resulting down moves then are limited to support at 1.1460.
USD / JPY
Still characterized by very low volatility, the dollar / yen market lost some territory in late Asian trading and is currently priced at 89.05. We consider the 89.00 area as support for today’s trading but do not expect much of an upmove from there, with the maximum limited to 89.50.
