Not so long ago, the oil price dominated Forex movements, leaving the USD room to recover when oil prices retreated because of vanishing inflation fears. Now it is the stock markets having a bizarre affair with the Greenback, punching its nose when equities are up and the next moment lending it a gentle hand when equities are down. It starts in early European mornings, for instance, when good news from late Asian stock trading is filtering in. In that case, the euro, Swiss franc, even the British pound and the Canadian dollar see good buying against the dollar. How long will this latest flirtation last? Studies show the changing relationships are holding for approximately 4 to 6 months - about the time needed to show the facts, not expectations. Then a new affair will start. We reckon the next one will be the fundamental facts of the U.S. economy, as well as monetary policies, trade balances and so on - for good or for bad, from the U.S. point of view.
The dollar started with a sideways move in early European trading, along its support zones in the major pairs. The present swing market might well continue until we are joined by the U.S. market. Sellers in the dollar might catch favorable entries as described in the outlook below. Note that today the FOMC will release their monetary policy at 20:15 CET.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair halted its upmove in early European trading and is currently priced at 1.3252. We expect another attack on the resistance line at 1.3300 in today’s trading, this time successful in breaking it on the upside, leading to levels around 1.3370.
GBP / USD
In lower volatility but still in a bid tone, cable is currently trading quietly around the 1.4280 level in European morning trading. We do not expect much more of an upmove today – the level around the 1.4300 handle level might be tested again. The downside would be limited at 1.4230.
USD / CHF
Caught in a sideways movement, the dollar is currently trading at 1.1385, in the middle of the existing range between 1.1420 and 1.1330. We expect the upper end to be tested again but not broken and then another downmove, eventually testing the 1.1330 level again.
USD / JPY
The dollar is continuing its sideways trading with the yen in low volatility. There are almost no signs of change from that today and we see the pair, currently priced at 89.20, trading between 89.50 and 88.80 today.
The dollar started with a sideways move in early European trading, along its support zones in the major pairs. The present swing market might well continue until we are joined by the U.S. market. Sellers in the dollar might catch favorable entries as described in the outlook below. Note that today the FOMC will release their monetary policy at 20:15 CET.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair halted its upmove in early European trading and is currently priced at 1.3252. We expect another attack on the resistance line at 1.3300 in today’s trading, this time successful in breaking it on the upside, leading to levels around 1.3370.
GBP / USD
In lower volatility but still in a bid tone, cable is currently trading quietly around the 1.4280 level in European morning trading. We do not expect much more of an upmove today – the level around the 1.4300 handle level might be tested again. The downside would be limited at 1.4230.
USD / CHF
Caught in a sideways movement, the dollar is currently trading at 1.1385, in the middle of the existing range between 1.1420 and 1.1330. We expect the upper end to be tested again but not broken and then another downmove, eventually testing the 1.1330 level again.
USD / JPY
The dollar is continuing its sideways trading with the yen in low volatility. There are almost no signs of change from that today and we see the pair, currently priced at 89.20, trading between 89.50 and 88.80 today.
