The belief that stockmarkets have found a firmer footing after last week’s bad performance, which was ignited by more bad news from the financial sector, has sent bond markets down and with it the USD. It is too early to decide whether this could be a sustaining sentiment, which actually points to a coming recovery of the U.S. economy, perhaps after summer this year. Right now, the markets are shifting too rapidly between positive and negative assessment to get a clearer view in this aspect. This week will be packed with important economic data from both sides of the pond, as well as Asia, and tomorrow the FOMC decision on U.S. monetary policy will be made public, so the sentiment can change quickly.
Short term, and for today’s trading, we expect some recovery attempts for the USD in the major pairs, based on its oversold condition, deepened by a better than expected IFO German business climate index this European morning. Sellers in the Greenback should wait therefore to get more favorable entry points. See our major pairs’ outlook below. U.S. consumer confidence for January will be released today at 16:00 CET, low index data around last month’s 38 is expected.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The better than expected IFO German business climate index this European morning resulted in further up movements for the pair, currently trading at 1.3260. Based on the overbought situation and the near resistance 1.3300 line, we see a down correction, finding support at 1.3190. From there, further upward moves can set in.
GBP / USD
Yesterday’s recovery of cable continued in Asian and early European trading, currently priced at 1.4150 against the dollar, and in deep overbought territory. We see the resistance at 1.4210 holding in today’s trading and expect down correction moves.
USD / CHF
The dollar, while consolidating its down move against the Swiss franc this European morning, is currently trading at 1.1375 near support at 1.1330. We expect that support to more or less hold in today’s trading, and see recovery moves up to the 1.1420 level. From there, more weakness can set in.
USD / JPY
In low volatility, the dollar traded down slightly against the yen in early European trading and is currently priced at 89.35, which is near the solid support zone at 89.00. We see upmoves from this area, leading to a test of the 89.90 resistance line for today.
Short term, and for today’s trading, we expect some recovery attempts for the USD in the major pairs, based on its oversold condition, deepened by a better than expected IFO German business climate index this European morning. Sellers in the Greenback should wait therefore to get more favorable entry points. See our major pairs’ outlook below. U.S. consumer confidence for January will be released today at 16:00 CET, low index data around last month’s 38 is expected.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The better than expected IFO German business climate index this European morning resulted in further up movements for the pair, currently trading at 1.3260. Based on the overbought situation and the near resistance 1.3300 line, we see a down correction, finding support at 1.3190. From there, further upward moves can set in.
GBP / USD
Yesterday’s recovery of cable continued in Asian and early European trading, currently priced at 1.4150 against the dollar, and in deep overbought territory. We see the resistance at 1.4210 holding in today’s trading and expect down correction moves.
USD / CHF
The dollar, while consolidating its down move against the Swiss franc this European morning, is currently trading at 1.1375 near support at 1.1330. We expect that support to more or less hold in today’s trading, and see recovery moves up to the 1.1420 level. From there, more weakness can set in.
USD / JPY
In low volatility, the dollar traded down slightly against the yen in early European trading and is currently priced at 89.35, which is near the solid support zone at 89.00. We see upmoves from this area, leading to a test of the 89.90 resistance line for today.
