The stalled recovery of the dollar finds one reason in the current sorrows about the ongoing monumental U.S. fiscal and monetary expansion and the resulting inflation which could become a runaway train. From the U.S. point of view, these are worries for a later day, first the economic wagon has to be pulled out of the sand. It is much too early to worry about later inflation when deflation is looming on the horizon, let alone the fact that it is entirely impossible to estimate how severe a future inflation phase will be. We see the market concentrating more on the now shrinking interest rate differential between the euro and the dollar, and the present correlation between the dollar and the Dow Jones Index, i.e. the Dollar strengthening on weak performance of the U.S. stock market. Both factors speak for a more stable dollar for the time being.
In the short-term view, however, the ongoing moderate downward correction of the USD could well continue in today’s trading. We expect the move to keep its moderate stance, and would trade it as projected in the major pairs’ discussion below. There are no meaningful economic data releases scheduled for today.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair currently is in a downmove in early European trading, interrupting its moderate uptrend that started a few days ago. Currently priced at 1.3260, we do not see much downside risk anymore for today`s trading. There is rather another upmove in the cards; 1.3240 would be an opportunity to buy with a target of 1.3380.
GBP / USD
Cable traded considerably lower this European morning, and is back near to its support at 1.4650. Currently trading at 1.4690, we expect that support to hold in today’s trading and project a coming upmove, leading to resistance at 1.4820.
USD / CHF
The dollar tried hard to break the resistance point at 1.1230 against the Swiss franc in early European trading, but so far has been unsuccessful. Currently priced at 1.1215, we expect another attack on the 1.1230 resistance level, but expect it to hold. A downmove then is likely, to support at 1.1150.
USD / JPY
The USD’s upmove against the yen came to a halt in today’s early European trading. Currently priced at 90.60, there is a high chance for a continued sideways movement today, in the narrow range between 91.20 on the upside and 90.30 on the downside.
In the short-term view, however, the ongoing moderate downward correction of the USD could well continue in today’s trading. We expect the move to keep its moderate stance, and would trade it as projected in the major pairs’ discussion below. There are no meaningful economic data releases scheduled for today.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair currently is in a downmove in early European trading, interrupting its moderate uptrend that started a few days ago. Currently priced at 1.3260, we do not see much downside risk anymore for today`s trading. There is rather another upmove in the cards; 1.3240 would be an opportunity to buy with a target of 1.3380.
GBP / USD
Cable traded considerably lower this European morning, and is back near to its support at 1.4650. Currently trading at 1.4690, we expect that support to hold in today’s trading and project a coming upmove, leading to resistance at 1.4820.
USD / CHF
The dollar tried hard to break the resistance point at 1.1230 against the Swiss franc in early European trading, but so far has been unsuccessful. Currently priced at 1.1215, we expect another attack on the 1.1230 resistance level, but expect it to hold. A downmove then is likely, to support at 1.1150.
USD / JPY
The USD’s upmove against the yen came to a halt in today’s early European trading. Currently priced at 90.60, there is a high chance for a continued sideways movement today, in the narrow range between 91.20 on the upside and 90.30 on the downside.
