We already saw it towards the end of last year: The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee pronounced it will do everything to restart the economy. The word "everything" provoked short-term weakness in the USD, illustrating fears of overheating the money printing press. The FOMC announced that it will seriously reflate the economy to fend off the danger of deflation. Again, the USD, after having had a good start in the new year, is reacting weaker. We doubt that the market will concentrate on this theme for long, because so far we have had only the U.S. side with precise announcements. The other side of the Atlantic is expected to start today at 13:00 CET, with the BoE making public their monetary strategy - another interest rate cut is expected. And then the ECB is about to speak up as well, facing similar economic problems in the Eurozone.
So far, the current down reaction of the Greenback is not decisive, it just tested an important support level, especially in the EUR / USD pair, and is right now gaining some strength in early European trading. With no clear trend visible for today, we are concentrating on our trading ranges as described in detail below. Note the weekly U.S. initial claims to be released at 14:30 CET.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair is losing ground in early European trading, currently priced at 1.3560. We see the mild downtrend continuing today, with up movements limited to 1.3620, eventually breaking the 1.3500 level on the downside.
GBP / USD
Cable is trading in a very narrow range in European morning trading in expectation of the BoE’s rate decision at 13:00 CET. Should the expected interest rate cut of 50 basis points be exceeded, we see the market dropping lower, to the 1.4900 support level.
USD / CHF
The dollar is trading currently around a support level at 1.1000, right now priced at 1.1025 against the Swiss franc. We expect this support level to more or less hold in today’s trading, leaving upside room towards resistance at 1.1150.
USD / JPY
Another intermediate support level around 92.00 is being tested by the dollar against the yen, with the market currently at 91.90. Recovery moves are likely now, but limited to 92.50, and later on we see another drop to 91.50.
So far, the current down reaction of the Greenback is not decisive, it just tested an important support level, especially in the EUR / USD pair, and is right now gaining some strength in early European trading. With no clear trend visible for today, we are concentrating on our trading ranges as described in detail below. Note the weekly U.S. initial claims to be released at 14:30 CET.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair is losing ground in early European trading, currently priced at 1.3560. We see the mild downtrend continuing today, with up movements limited to 1.3620, eventually breaking the 1.3500 level on the downside.
GBP / USD
Cable is trading in a very narrow range in European morning trading in expectation of the BoE’s rate decision at 13:00 CET. Should the expected interest rate cut of 50 basis points be exceeded, we see the market dropping lower, to the 1.4900 support level.
USD / CHF
The dollar is trading currently around a support level at 1.1000, right now priced at 1.1025 against the Swiss franc. We expect this support level to more or less hold in today’s trading, leaving upside room towards resistance at 1.1150.
USD / JPY
Another intermediate support level around 92.00 is being tested by the dollar against the yen, with the market currently at 91.90. Recovery moves are likely now, but limited to 92.50, and later on we see another drop to 91.50.
