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Daily Trading Forecast

As Wall Street Closes Up, Dollar Turns Down

Fri, Aug 28 2009, 09:59 GMT
by Swiss e Trade Strategy Team

Swiss e Trade AG  |  View company's profile

It’s like a trained reflex blindly repeated on a signal. As Wall Street closed up after starting lower yesterday, the dollar lost ground against the major pairs, except the yen. The Asian stock markets followed that stance more or less, closing up or slightly unchanged. With the week ending on a more positive stance for stock markets again, we do not see much chance for the Greenback to gain ground today.

On the other hand, the USD is still in a testing phase of its lower levels against other currencies and is still oversold. We therefore predict not much change in today’s trading - a sideways trend channel is the most likely scenario. Although most probably in low volatility, some pairs still offer some trading opportunities (GBP / USD), as described below. Note U.S. personal income and personal spending for July today, both at 14:30 CET.

by George Clement

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
The pair is defending its higher levels this European morning, currently trading near the highs at 1.4355. There is a stiff resistance overhead, at around 1.4420, and we doubt that this level will be broken today. But there is not much downside room as well - a sideways market between roughly 1.4400 and 1.4300 can be expected for today’s trading.

GBP / USD
Cable is trading a little higher in early European hours, currently at 1.6325, and trying to explore a large resistance zone between 1.6390 and 1.6450. We see the current upmove coming to an end in this zone today and a testing of current levels again.

USD / CHF
Testing old lows against the Swiss franc, the dollar currently is priced at 1.0580 against the Swiss franc in early European trading. We expect the selling tone in the USD to fade in today’s trading, leading to a sideways market between current prices and 1.0650.

USD / JPY
After a stronger Asian session, the dollar gained further ground against the yen and is currently trading at 93.90. We see that strength bumping into resistance around 94.20 in today’s later trading, leading to some downward corrections to around the 93.70 level.

Published on  Fri, Aug 28 2009, 10:00 GMT