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Daily Trading Forecast

USD to Gain More Strength Today

Mon, Jul 13 2009, 10:02 GMT
by Swiss e Trade Strategy Team

Swiss e Trade AG

The theme is almost a year old: when stock markets reflect uncertainty, the Greenback is favored, and vice versa. This week started with such a tone, with undecisive equity markets ahead of a full pack of U.S. economic data for June, which should be observed before making risk / chance decisions. We expect the data ahead this week to be favorable for the dollar, i.e. not showing much recovery of the U.S. economy (recovery would be considered instantly as and inflation trigger, therefore hurting the currency).

For today’s trading, we expect the USD to explore more upward territory against the majors, as explained in detail below. Note the speech of ECB president Trichet in Germany at 12:30 CET, and the publication of the U.S. Treasury Budget at 20:00 CET.

by George Clement

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
The pair is currently trading on a slight recovery path, priced right now at 1.3960. Stiff resistance zones are ahead, between current prices and 1.4000. These zones will not be broken today and we expect a further downmove to the 1.3850 support zone.

GBP / USD
Cable is on the downmove this European morning, currently trading around a support zone at 1.6040. We see that support zone with the critical 1.6025 mark being broken today, leading to lower prices around 1.5940.

USD / CHF
The dollar started the week lower against the Swiss franc, but in a low volatility market right now in early European trading hours. Currently priced at 1.0845, it seems to be preparing a recovery path, which we think will bring the market up today to around the 1.0920 mark.

USD / JPY
After a lengthy consolidation phase in Asian trading on lower levels, the dollar started losing territory again against the yen in early European trading. Right now trading above support levels around 91.00, currently at 91.85, we do not see much more downside risk in today’s market, rather a sideways movement between the 91.00 and 92.30 levels.

Published on  Mon, Jul 13 2009, 10:03 GMT