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Daily Trading Forecast

Still No Change in Tight Forex Ranges after ECB's Rate Decision

Fri, Jul 3 2009, 10:01 GMT
by Swiss e Trade Strategy Team

Swiss e Trade AG

The ECB decided to leave interest rates unchanged yesterday, which was expected by the market. But then the central bank’s president announced more quantitative easing, but at the same time saying the ECB has done enough already. This confused the market, triggering a recovery of the dollar, which is still inversively linked to stock markets. We see a continued sideways market for currencies amidst economic uncertainty. Later in the day, the worse than expected U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report further pressured stock markets, bringing the dollar to new daily highs against the majors.

Accordingly, we put our dollar ranges against the majors a little lower - the Greenback still appears somewhat overbought. See the details below. There are no market-moving data scheduled for today.

by George Clement

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
The pair is on a recovery move this European morning, still in low volatility and currently trading at 1.3990. We expect more of this recovery to come today, leading to marks around 1.4050.

GBP / USD
Trading above solid support right now, cable is currently priced at 1.6350. We expect the support at 1.6320 to hold in today’s trading and project a rising market, up to levels around 1.6450.

USD / CHF
After losing ground in Asian trading, the dollar gained some territory back in early European trading and is currently priced at 1.0860. We see today’s resistance level at 1.0890 holding, giving way to downmoves towards the 1.8000 level.

USD / JPY
The dollar is continuing to consolidate at lower levels against the yen in early European trading, right now around the 95.90 mark. Lower prices are in the cards today, down to 95.35.

Published on  Fri, Jul 3 2009, 10:06 GMT