Present talk has it that the USD’s recovery since summer 2008 was just a blip, and we would return now to reality, i.e. the U.S. currency will continue its long decline. In this view, a 4-month solid down movement in the euro becomes a short-term development, and a six-day up movement reflects long-term reality. If wisdom like that became the rule, we all could toss a coin and bother our brains no more. True, the euro’s rise of over 10% was impressive, but it happened in too short a time and in the season’s too low liquidity to serve as a true signal of a longer-term dollar weakness. The chartist just notes that the EUR / USD has bumped into solid resistance levels on the upside, surfing the waves in outright exhausted (overbought) condition, and is now called back to have a rest.
For today’s trading, we expect a sideways market in broader ranges as described in the discussion of the major pairs below. There are no scheduled data releases today known as market movers.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The EUR / USD continued its down correction move in early European trading, currently at 1.4125 and near intermediate support. We expect this support to more or less hold in today’s trading and rather see upmoves. These could well be limited to 1.4270, the new intraday resistance level.
GBP / USD
Cable traded more weakly this European morning and is currently priced at 1.5040. Further downmoves today have to be reckoned with, but we see the support level at 1.4950 holding and, with possible upmoves from there, we expect a sideways trading range to be established today. The upper side would be limited to 1.5150.
USD / CHF
After its swift recovery move yesterday, the dollar strengthened further against the Swiss franc and currently stands at 1.0980 in early European trading. Further upmoves are limited to resistance at 1.1050, while we see downswings in the making today but not below support at 1.0860.
USD / JPY
The dollar trended downwards in all of Asian and early European trading and is now priced at 88.80 against the yen. We expect this trend to continue in today’s market, not exceeding the 89.30 level and eventually finding support at 87.50.
For today’s trading, we expect a sideways market in broader ranges as described in the discussion of the major pairs below. There are no scheduled data releases today known as market movers.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The EUR / USD continued its down correction move in early European trading, currently at 1.4125 and near intermediate support. We expect this support to more or less hold in today’s trading and rather see upmoves. These could well be limited to 1.4270, the new intraday resistance level.
GBP / USD
Cable traded more weakly this European morning and is currently priced at 1.5040. Further downmoves today have to be reckoned with, but we see the support level at 1.4950 holding and, with possible upmoves from there, we expect a sideways trading range to be established today. The upper side would be limited to 1.5150.
USD / CHF
After its swift recovery move yesterday, the dollar strengthened further against the Swiss franc and currently stands at 1.0980 in early European trading. Further upmoves are limited to resistance at 1.1050, while we see downswings in the making today but not below support at 1.0860.
USD / JPY
The dollar trended downwards in all of Asian and early European trading and is now priced at 88.80 against the yen. We expect this trend to continue in today’s market, not exceeding the 89.30 level and eventually finding support at 87.50.
