With oil prices still surging upwards (NYMEX June crude currently at 126.45) and weak economic reports last week from the U.S., the dollar continues its slow decent against the other major currencies. The important reports this week come from Europe with the German ZEW survey due out on Tuesday and the IFO report on Wednesday. While these reports have supported the Euro in recent weeks, we feel expectations are too high and that this time, they may disappoint traders.
For today's trading we do not expect much movement and are waiting for a clearer picture to emerge.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The EUR / USD is trading a bit higher this morning from Friday’s level. Currently the pair is quoted at 1.5595. Important resistance is seen at 1.5645. If this level is broken, we see the EUR /USD climbing to at least 1.5850. On the downside, support is seen at 1.55560, which if broken could take prices down to the 1.5450 level. We have no forecast for today.
GBP / USD
The GBP / USD has also found support against the dollar after the positive housing report this morning. Currently the pair is trading at 1.9565 and is approaching resistance at 1.9595. If this level is broken, prices could reach the new resistance level of 1.9775 in today’s trading. Due to the inherent weakness of Sterling, we would refrain from going long in this currency pair unless a real breakout is visible.
USD / CHF
The currency pair is currently trading at 1.0454 with a slight downward trend. Support is seen at 1.0390 which we feel will be tested in today’s trading. Traders wanting to make a quick trade could sell the pair at a level over 1.0465 for a target of 1.0395 and a stop at 1.0490 (see chart below).
USD / JPY
The USD / JPY, currently trading at 104.00, has also a clear downward trend and might test support at 103.50 today. If that level is broken, the pair could fall to the 102.60 level. The technical indicators for this drop are not as strong as in the USD/CHF. Therefore we have no specific forecast for today.
USD/CHF Chart
