Daily Trading Forecast
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Dollar Stable in Lower Volatility
Wed, Nov 19 2008, 10:58 GMT
by Swiss e Trade Strategy Team
Viewed from a seasonal aspect, the stability of the Greenback is astonishing. This time of the year it usually tends to weakness as year-end approaches. But market and technical factors speak a quite different language now, leading to the opposite conclusion. Although the present consolidation phase might go on for a while, it looks like the USD is preparing itself for another leap soon. But it needs a trigger for that, which we expect to be found soon in the fundamental data either from the U.S. or Europe. There is a quite a lot of market moving data scheduled for today in the U.S. as noted below - the last for this week, which will be otherwise quiet.
For today, we advocate a buy-on-weakness approach for the USD in the major pairs, with the favorable points described in the outlook for day traders below. Avoid having positions when today’s important triple data is released at 14:30 CET: U.S. housing starts, building permits and consumer prices.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
We expect the slight selling tone for the pair to remain in today’s trading. With the EUR / USD currently priced at 1.2610, we prefer to sell above the present market, at 1.2650, while envisaging a low for today at 1.2550.
GBP / USD
With unusual stability, cable continues to trade in a very narrow trading range this European morning and is currently priced at 1.4955. We expect the higher end of the trading range at 1.4990 to be tested again today but not broken and the lower end at 1.4900 to eventually be broken on the downside later.
USD / CHF
Topping at 1.2084 in early European trading, the dollar is currently priced at 1.2074 against the Swiss franc. We expect the bid tone of yesterday and today to continue but prefer not to buy above 1.2050.
USD / JPY
The dollar stabilized further in Asian and early European trading and is currently in a slight upmove against the yen, now priced at 96.80. We see that upmove continuing today, eventually testing the 97.40 resistance zone.
Published on Wed, Nov 19 2008, 10:59 GMT
Archive
- Still No Change in Tight Forex Ranges after ECB's Rate Decision
Published On Fri, Jul 3 2009, 10:01 GMT - Do Not Expect Too Much of Today's ECB Rate Decision
Published On Thu, Jul 2 2009, 09:40 GMT - Forex Remains Sideways
Published On Wed, Jul 1 2009, 10:06 GMT - Major Pairs: Oversold / Overbought Does it for the Moment
Published On Tue, Jun 30 2009, 10:06 GMT - Death of the Dinosaurs
Published On Mon, Jun 29 2009, 10:05 GMT
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Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
Swiss e Trade AG shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Swiss e Trade that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.Related reports
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