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Daily Trading Forecast

An Unexpected Whiff of Optimism During Election Day

Wed, Nov 5 2008, 10:28 GMT
by Swiss e Trade Strategy Team

Swiss e Trade AG

Why exactly during the day-long voting process on U.S. Election Day economic optimism should return as it did at this time yesterday remains a mystery. While the U.S. people had just begun voting, the U.S. bond market and Wall Street moved substantially up, oil jumped, and accordingly the dollar took a beating. We have never had the same vivid activity on Election Day, when markets usually remain on the sidelines. Above that, the election polls were already speaking clearly in the days before, when the markets seemed to go to sleep, quite in contrast to that volatility. Anyway, the oil and commodity prices and the Greenback long deserved a meaningful correction of their exaggerated (oversold / overbought) market positions.

Although the dollar has more down-correction room to fill, it is oversold again more quickly than expected in our intraday perspective. We therefore project countermoves in today’s trading as described in the major pairs’ details below.

by George Clement

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
Having reached a high of 1.3045 in Asian trading, the pair retreated to the current 1.2840 in early European hours, just testing a support line. We expect this support line to be broken in today’s further trading and next support at 1.2750 to be tested, which we see holding. Expect upmoves from that level.

GBP / USD
After being overbought at the high of 1.6106 yesterday, cable corrected downwards to presently 1.5815. This down tendency most probably will find support at 1.5760, where we see renewed up motion towards the 1.6000 level.

USD / CHF
The dollar most probably will start another attack on the 1.1750 resistance level in today’s trading. Currently trading at 1.1670 against the Swiss franc, a testing of support at 1.1630 before that upmove is likely.

USD / JPY
The dollar is just trading along a solid support zone and is currently priced at 98.30. We see that support holding more or less in today’s trading, giving room to another upmove towards resistance at 99.50.

Published on  Wed, Nov 5 2008, 10:29 GMT