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Daily Trading Forecast

Pummeled Euro Takes a Rest

Thu, Oct 23 2008, 10:10 GMT
by Swiss e Trade Strategy Team

Swiss e Trade AG

The euro, under heavy pressure recently and today hovering above a thin short-term support line against the dollar, began to consolidate its much lower levels, but still with an overall slight selling tone. The euro’s newly-gained weak stigma is likely to remain for quite a while, as was earlier this year the case with the British pound. Even against that, the euro has trended weaker since September.

For today’s trading, we do not expect much recovery potential for the euro against the dollar nor against other currencies. On the other hand, we see the further downside potential being filled only slowly now, considering the extreme oversold situation in the EUR / USD and, to a lesser extent, in the other EUR pairs.

by George Clement

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
The hard-hit pair is trying to consolidate its losses and is currently trading at 1.2825 after reaching a low of 1.2688 in late Asian trading. We see another drop today towards the 1.2700 level in today’s remaining trading hours.

GBP / USD
After sharp losses in the past two days, cable started a consolidation phase yesterday which continued in late Asian and early European trading hours. We expect the short-term established trading range to continue in today’s trading, currently at 1.6299. We see the upper limit of that range at 1.6340 and the lower at 1.6220.

USD / CHF
Against the Swiss franc, the dollar did not change its sideways channel trading between 1.1590 and 1.1690, valid now for two days. We expect that channel to remain intact today. Currently trading at 1.1659 in a bid tone this European morning, the upside of the channel near 1.1690 could soon be reached. There is a bid tone.

USD / JPY
The dollar seems to be pausing in its 3-day downmove against the yen and is currently trading at 97.70 in a narrow trading range between approximately 97.00 and 98.00. Heavily oversold now, we would expect a further recovery of the dollar against the yen in today’s trading, at least to the 98.50 level. The maverick yen, though, is always good for surprises in these times, so we refrain from a more specific forecast today.

Published on  Thu, Oct 23 2008, 10:12 GMT