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Daily Trading Forecast

Dollar Still a Sell on Strength

Wed, Oct 15 2008, 10:30 GMT
by Swiss e Trade Strategy Team

Swiss e Trade AG

Presently we are monitoring a continued downward correction of the USD against the majors. With volatility now increasing a little, this phase behaved quite modestly so far, offering enough chances to trade both sides and with little disturbance coming from fundamental data, i.e. with no surprising excesses. Chart readers welcome that, although we always must reckon with external factors as well. In this context, it is surprising how little the Forex market was affected by the last 3 weeks’ financial turbulence, let alone the steep fall of commodity-related currencies. There, some recovery now seems to be in the cards.

For today’s trading, we expect the swings in the majors to keep that slight selling undertone for the dollar as described below in detail. Note the upcoming release of U.S. retail sales and the U.S. producer price index, both for September, at 14:30 CET.

by George Clement

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
The EUR / USD, currently trading at 1.3605, has a new upside resistance zone for today’s trading at 1.3760. There was only a little bid tone for the pair in early European trading but we expect that to increase today, resulting in another attack on the 1.3760 resistance.

GBP / USD
The 1.7655 resistance level was almost tested yesterday, but cable fell back again and is trading now at 1.7480. We see a repeated attack today on the 1.7655 resistance developing, while the 1.7420 level provides good support in weakness phases.

USD / CHF
The dollar recovered against the Swiss franc after yesterday’s low at 1.1293 and is now trading at 1.1370. We do not see this recovery moving beyond today’s resistance at 1.1420 and expect a renewed downmove to support at 1.1295 which we expect to eventually be broken on the downside.

USD / JPY
The dollar broke through the support zone at 101.20 in early European trading and is currently at 101.15 against the yen. There is more weakness in the cards for today’s trading, eventually testing the 100.50 support level. First, we see some recovery to the resistance point at 101.40.occur as anticipated.

Published on  Wed, Oct 15 2008, 10:31 GMT