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Special Risk Still Prevails

Fri, Aug 29 2008, 10:34 GMT
by Swiss e Trade Strategy Team

Swiss e Trade AG


We need an all-clear for Hurricane Gustav’s threat to U.S. oil installations in the Gulf to wave away this special risk for dollar bulls. With the Forex markets mainly concentrated on the oil price now, any other - fundamentally or technically obtained - intraday projection could be destroyed in minutes by jumpy prices for the fossil stuff.

Although we prefer to buy the dollar on downward corrections, we would wait for that all-clear. However, excluding that special risk, we outline our projections for today’s trading in the major pairs below. Note today’s 14:30 CET data release of U.S. Personal Income (expectations somewhat lower) and Personal Spending (expectations only slightly higher) for July.

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD

The EUR / USD, currently trading at 1.4733 in another upmove, may well test the 1.4780 level today before trading down again to the support level at 1.4680, which we expect to hold.

GBP / USD
After new lows, cable recovered in late Asian and early European trading and is now at 1.8306. 1.8350, the next resistance level, could be reached first before support at 1.8250, the low so far, is tested again.

USD / CHF
Currently trading at 1.0964 against the Swiss franc, the dollar improved slightly in this European morning. But today’s support at 1.0940 can be tested again before a real attack on the resistance line at 1.1010 opens up.

USD / JPY
The USD / JPY just attempted to test an important support zone at 108.40 and is on a recovery move now, currently trading at 108.90. We see this continuing in today’s trading but coming to a halt at or near resistance at 109.35.


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Swiss e Trade AG shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Swiss e Trade that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.


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