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Cruising in Quiet Waters

Wed, Aug 20 2008, 10:06 GMT
by Swiss e Trade Strategy Team

Swiss e Trade AG


Still consolidating its higher levels, the Greenback now is trade-ranging the majors in well-defined upper and lower limits - just about 150 basis points wide, with only a very slight downward tone. If this is the call to a downward correction phase, then it is hardly being heard and thus comes as a boon to the dollar bulls. What could destroy that picture? Commodity and oil prices, seemingly starting an upward correction phase after their steep fall from the highs. So far, however, the U.S. currency is little impressed and is just following its bandwidth, gaining a little strength again right now.

Our trade observations for today advocate the buy-on-weakness strategy for the dollar, as defined in the major pairs’ discussion below. This is still based on a low-volatility basis, allowing only small profits in today’s trading. There are no market-moving fundamental indicators scheduled for release today.

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
The EUR / USD, currently trading at 1.4736, tried to break the 1.4800 resistance level in early Asian hours, but failed. We see the downward move continuing to the 1.4700 or slightly below support level before recovering.

GBP / USD
Cable shows a clearly-defined trading range between roughly 1.8700 and 1.8550 on the downside, where it is heading. Currently trading at 1.8594, we see the 1.8550 support holding today from where recovery moves are likely.

USD / CHF
With some newly-gained vigor, the dollar is on the attack move to the long-tested 1.1000 resistance level again. It must break the 1.1033 level, though, to move into higher ground. We doubt that we will see that in today’s trading - we see rather another drop to 1.0950. Currently trading at 1.0995, such a move will soon be knocking on the door.

USD / JPY
The USD / JPY might have its interruptions in its tandem movements with the other pairs but, for now, in late Asian and early European trading hours, it picked up the rhythm again, trading up to the 110.40 resistance level, and is currently at 110.23. We see the 110.40 level holding today, where another downmove towards 110.00 is likely.

Published on  Wed, Aug 20 2008, 10:48 GMT


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Swiss e Trade AG shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Swiss e Trade that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.


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