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Daily Trading Forecast
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The Calm before the Storm
Thu, Jul 3 2008, 10:40 GMT
by Swiss e Trade Strategy Team
Traders are sidelined this morning waiting for today's ECB rate decision at 11:45 GMT followed by the U.S. non-farm payroll report at 12:30 GMT. There has been consistent talk in the market of a "buy on rumor, sell on fact" situation building that may halt the U.S. dollar's recent decline against the world's major currencies and even spark a dollar rally. Other factors supporting this scenario are the massive short-dollar positions in the market as well as the fact that tomorrow is the beginning of a long three-day weekend for the currency markets. If this situation does occur, we feel the U.S. dollar could continue its rally into next week as well.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The EUR / USD has maintained a very strong bid tone through Asian trading and is currently trading at 1.5885. The market is waiting for a planned increase of 0.25% from the ECB today and the U.S. non-farm payroll report. There is a chance that the EUR / USD may sell off after the ECB rate decision due to market talk we have heard about “buy on rumor, sell on fact.”
GBP / USD
Sterling has been defying gravity in trading this week but today may be its chance to fall under the influence of natural law again. Currently the GBP / USD is trading at 1.9854, just above support at 1.9845. On the GBP / USD hourly charts, a head and shoulder pattern has formed which, if the neckline is broken, could take prices down to next support at 1.9720 or even to 1.9600. An important factor will be the ECB rate decision and the U.S. payroll numbers which could change this scenario. We would advise traders to trade from the short side but to first wait for the ECB and U.S. figures coming later.
USD / CHF
The USD / CHF is hovering right above important support at 1.0130 and is currently trading at 1.0140. Of all the major currencies, the USD / CHF has traded in the most narrow range during this week’s trading. For this currency pair, we feel the U.S. non-farm payroll figures are the most important. We foresee a possible rally in the USD / CHF today if for no other reason than the closing of short positions before this week’s long weekend.
USD / JPY
The USD / JPY recovered some of the losses that it endured last night in Asian trading and is currently trading at 106.35. Like the USD / CHF, traders in the USD / JPY are awaiting eagerly the U.S. payroll numbers today for guidance. We feel any trend that forms after today’s figures will signal next week’s price movements.
Published on Thu, Jul 3 2008, 10:42 GMT
Archive
- Misinterpreting the Fed's Remarks
Published On Mon, Nov 23 2009, 11:25 GMT - USD Still Caught in Narrow Ranges
Published On Fri, Nov 20 2009, 11:19 GMT - EUR: A Confirmation Signal for the Uptrend
Published On Thu, Nov 19 2009, 10:38 GMT - No Longer the Right Words: "Risk Appetite"
Published On Wed, Nov 18 2009, 11:23 GMT - Euro Attacks on Resistance vs. Dollar More Reluctant Now
Published On Tue, Nov 17 2009, 10:51 GMT
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Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
©2009 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.