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Daily Trading Forecast

Range Trading for Today's Market

Tue, Jul 1 2008, 10:29 GMT
by Swiss e Trade Strategy Team

Swiss e Trade AG

Pausing after its bout of weakness, the USD currently trades in a tight range with the exception of the GBP which showed continued strength in late Asian and early European trading, but bumping into stiff resistance right now. We do not expect further significant moves for today in the majors as explained below. Obviously, markets are awaiting this week’s big Thursday, with the interest rate decision of the ECB and U.S. employment figures coming up, just before the long U.S. weekend starts (4th of July).

Note that a higher EUR interest rate is well discounted in both forex and bond markets already, while the U.S. employment figures are not expected to show any spectacular change in the economy’s surly mood. For today, the important figures could be the ISM Manufacturing Index (16:00 CET), which is expected to remain below its 50% level, and U.S. construction spending at the same time, probably still depressed.

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
The EUR / USD is possibly forming a head and shoulder formation on the hourly charts and is currently trading at 1.5769. Although we expect range trading for today, we’ve seen a small upward bias in early European trading. We see the range for today of support at 1.5695 and resistance at the recent high of 1.5835.

GBP / USD
In the GBP / USD, currently trading at 1.9978, is right below a strong resistance line, which we see at 2.0050. Like the EUR / USD, trading in the early European market has shown a tendency towards support of the Sterling at the expense of the U.S. dollar, so we expect resistance to be tested today but do not see any significant break before Thursday’s ECB interest rate decision and the U.S. payroll figures.

USD / CHF
The USD / CHF is currently trading at 1.0177, right above important support at 1.0150. Resistance comes in at the double-top formation at 1.0228. We see perhaps support being tested today but no significant break of this support and expect prices to remain within this range.

USD / JPY
The USD / JPY is currently trading at 105.43, after selling off in Asian trading from its high at 106.38. The down movement should be halted at support we see at the 105.00 handle and we expect prices to remain within this tight range.

Published on  Tue, Jul 1 2008, 10:31 GMT

Archive

• Waiting for Greenback's Next Pull-Up
  Published On Wed, Aug 27 2008, 10:59 GMT
• Dollar Boasts More Strength
  Published On Tue, Aug 26 2008, 10:48 GMT
• Dollar Sticks to its Strength
  Published On Mon, Aug 25 2008, 11:16 GMT
• Dollar Starts Downward Correction Phase
  Published On Fri, Aug 22 2008, 10:35 GMT
• Major Pairs in Unbroken Sideways Trend
  Published On Thu, Aug 21 2008, 10:20 GMT

[ View All ]

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