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Daily Trading Forecast

Greenback Suffers a Double Punch

Mon, Jun 30 2008, 10:27 GMT
by Swiss e Trade Strategy Team

Swiss e Trade AG

Bad U.S. inflation data last Friday weakened the USD again, and the weak start in Asian and early European trading, undermined by again higher oil prices, has led to cascade-style selling. Since all of the majors are now approaching important long-term support / resistance zones, we don't expect this exaggeration to last in today’s trading, as outlined below.

With the current bearish mood for the USD, however, underlined by the Fed`s current low profile in contrast to the ECB`s hawkish talk, a long-overdue, bigger correction move could set in only later this week. Perhaps this will happen on Thursday, the date of the ECB’s expected interest rate increase decision and the U.S. unemployment figures.

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
The EUR / USD appreciated again in Asian and early European trading and is testing its long-term resistance point at 1.5850. The pair is currently trading at 1.5820. Due to the significant overbought situation right now, we don’t think resistance will be broken today, if at all. No specific forecast.

GBP / USD
The GBP / USD, currently trading at 1.9946, is telling a different story. In contrast to the EUR / USD pair, cable is still characterized by huge overhead supply (many resistance points on the way upwards are overshadowing the market). One of these resistance points, the "handle" at 2.000, is being approached but we don’t think it will be broken today - we rather expect downward correction in today’s trading. The exponential curve of price increases since June 16 points to a bigger downward correction in the near future. Stay tuned.

USD / CHF
The U.S. dollar is about to test its old lows against the Swiss franc and the pair is currently trading at 1.0150. Here, as well, exaggeration is characterizing the picture. We feel a big correction is imminent and bold traders wanting to participate in this downtrend should wait at least until a substantial correction upwards materializes. No specific forecast.

USD / JPY
The USD / JPY, long reluctant to join the pack and now cascading into a free fall, is currently trading at 105.30. Now heavily oversold, it is set to test an important support zone at 105.00. This broad support zone is not likely to be broken in today’s trading

Published on  Mon, Jun 30 2008, 10:29 GMT