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Daily Trading Forecast

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Profit−Taking Seen in Today's Trading

Fri, May 23 2008, 10:10 GMT
by Swiss e Trade Strategy Team

Swiss e Trade AG


The U.S. dollar's week-long decline may end today as traders take profits in their short-dollar positions. Already in early European trading, the dollar is gaining against the majors from yesterday's closing prices.

We expect this correction to continue today and maybe even increase later in U.S. trading due to the three-day weekend Memorial Day holiday.

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
The EUR / USD is currently trading at 1.5727, after having declined from its 1-month high yesterday at 1.5814. We feel that much of this decline is due to profit-taking before the weekend and we expect a minor resistance level at 1.5742 to hold in today’s trading. On the downside, prices could reach support at 1.5630 in today’s trading. We’re waiting for a clearer picture to develop before establishing a position.

GBP / USD
Like the EUR / USD, the GBP / USD has retraced some of its upward movement, which peaked yesterday at 1.9850, and is currently trading at 1.9700. From our review of analysts’ recommendations, the vast majority are predicting lower cable in today’s trading and see prices reaching for support at around 1.9700. Due to the conflicting technical picture, though, we will refrain from making a forecast for today’s trading.

USD / CHF
Prices in the USD / CHF, currently at 1.0285, are right below minor support at 1.0300. Despite prices having broken through support, we see prices trading sideways today in the USD / CHF.

USD / JPY
The USD / JPY is currently trading at 103.65 and, whereas the dollar has fallen against the other major currencies, against the yen the dollar was able to gain in value. This conflict is due mainly to the Bank of Japan’s independent economic policy. Prices may rise above 104.00 in today’s trading but we see rather quiet movements and low volatility, so we have no firm outlook.


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