The NFP data paved the road for some risk-off trading, which pressures the commodity currencies like the Aussie, and buoy save haven currencies like the Greenback. The AUD/USD fell from through the previous daily range support at 1.0240 and is now attacking the 1.02 handle.
If this risk-off decline extends, the next support for AUD/USD is seen near 1.0125. Here we have a rising trendline as well as a previous resistance pivot to be tested as support. A hold above this level suggests a further upside risk toward 1.0350-1.0380 where the market will test a previous resistance pivot.
However if AUD/USD rallies from the trendline but holds below the 1.02-1.0220 area on the way up, it is likely respecting topping formation, and the bearish outlook would strengthen.
The bearish outlook strengthens further with a break below parity (1.0). That opens up a recent support area just above 0.98.
AUD/USD 4HChart 10;58AM EDT 7/6/2012