HIGHLIGHTS:

EURUSD: Failure Above The 1.5000 Level Keeps Risk Lower -With three attempts failing to keep EUR above its key resistance at 1.5000, it collapsed sharply lower through the 1.4917 level

GBPUSD: Halts Downside Pressure, Strengthens -GBP held off lower prices on Thursday after testing a low of 1.6514 before closing marginally higher at the end of the session


EURUSD

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EURUSD: Failure Above The 1.5000 Level Keeps Risk Lower

EURUSD-With three attempts failing to keep EUR above its key resistance at 1.5000, it collapsed sharply lower through the 1.4917 level to close at 1.4820 on Thursday. Immediate risk is seen towards the 1.4844 level where a cap is expected but if that fails we could see the pair facing further downside pressure towards its LT rising trendlinecurrently at 1.4688 where a halt is expected to turn it higher. Further down, the 1.4625 level comes in as the next support and then its Oct 02’09 low at 1.4479. We believe that the 1.4844 level or the 1.4688 level should contain its present downside if seen which is consistent with our longer term outlook. The first sign of deterioration will be a violation of its longer rising trendlineand the second will be a loss of its swing low at 1.4625. These are two significant levels which if broken will halt the pair’s medium term uptrend and trigger lower level prices. On the other hand, EUR must return back above the 1.5000 level to avert its current price weakness and bring further gains towards the 1.5082 level, its Aug 10’08 high and next its 1.5283 level, its May 04’08 low. On the whole, though facing immediate downside pressure, it still retains its overall MT uptrend bias.


GBPUSD

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GBPUSD: Halts Downside Pressure, Strengthens

GBPUSD-GBP held off lower prices on Thursday after testing a low of 1.6514 before closing marginally higher at the end of the session. Though immediate downside pressure has not been averted yet , its current recovery higher in early trading today may have temporarily halted its declines off the 1.6842 level keeping the pair above its ST rising trendlinenow seen at 1.6540 and the 1.6249/60 area, its Oct 26’09/Nov 03’09 lows. These key levels must hold if tested to prevent the pair from declining further and targeting its big support standing at its Oct 30’09 high at 1.6124 level and then the 1.5706 level. Its daily studies are both bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. To the topside, the pair must break back above the 1.6740 and the 1.6842 levels to reverse its downside threats and bring gains towards the 1.7041 level where its YTD high is standing with a penetration of there triggering the resumption of its medium term uptrend now on hold towards its .50 Ret (2.1160-1.3501)at 1.7314. On the whole, GBP remains pressured to the downside having collapsed off the 1.6842 level.