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Daily Technical Strategist

GBPUSD: Still Looking Susceptible−

Fri, Feb 13 2009, 14:36 GMT
by Mohammed Isah

FXTechstrategy  |  View company's profile

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HIGHLIGHTS:

GBPUSD: Still Looking Susceptible- Despite the pair’s intra day bounce off the 1.4137 level on Thursday and a higher upmove seen in early morning trading today,GBP’s declines off the 1.4986 high printed on Feb 09’09 has some more downside to go...

EURUSD: The 1.2706/22 Area Continues To Limit Downside - The 1.2766 level, its Jan 23’09 low and 1.2706 level, its Feb 02’09 low as well as Thursday low at 1.2722 are now seen as the price levels that are limiting EUR’s attempts at retesting and possibly breaking its 2008 swing low at 1.2330…

GBPUSD: Still Looking Susceptible

GBPUSD: Despite the pair’s intra day bounce off the 1.4137 level on Thursday and a higher upmove seen in early morning trading today,GBP’s declines off the 1.4986 high printed on Feb 09’09 has some more downside to go. In such a case, its Jan’2002 low at 1.4045 will be targeted at first ahead of the 1.3682 level, its Jun’2001 low and then its YTD low at 1.3504.Our view is for the latter level to be taken out triggering the resumption of its medium to longer term declines. The daily stochastics remains pointed to the downside supporting this view. On the other hand, having declined for three days in a row, its early morning gains today could activate further upside if sustained with the nearby resistance located at the 1.4352 level, its Dec 31’08 low being the next target and then the 1.4578 level, its Feb 04’09 high. Above these key levels are required to signal a move towards the 1.4981 level, its Jan 16’09 high where a break will resume GBP’s recovery started at the 1.3504 level towards the 1.5374 level, its Jan 08’09 high and later the 1.5484 level, representing its .382 Ret (1.8669 to 1.3504 decline).All in all, the pair remains entrenched in a corrective price activity with overall outlook still continuing to point to the downside in the medium to longer term.

EURUSD: The 1.2706/22 Area Continues To Limit Downside

EURUSD: The 1.2766 level, its Jan 23’09 low and 1.2706 level, its Feb 02’09 low as well as Thursday low at 1.2722 are now seen as the price levels that are limiting EUR’s attempts at retesting and possibly breaking its 2008 swing low at 1.2330.This is the third time the pair is failing at that area and if that continues to be seen especially now that it has broken out of declining ST channel, we could see upside momentum building up for a potential upmove. Despite this temporary base forming price activities, EUR still retains its medium term bearishness and should eventually retarget the 1.2330 level. Beyond the 1.2706/66 area, additional supports are located at the 1.2551 level, its Dec 04’08 low with a breach of there setting the stage for a recapture of its 2008 swing low standing at 1.2330 while resistance is initially situated at the 1.3000/1.2993 level, its psycho level/Feb 06’09 high followed by its Feb 04’09/Nov 25’08 high at 1.3071/81 and next its Jan 27/28’09 highs at 1.3327/30.This zone is expected to turn the pair back down but if it gives way, we could see higher gains towards the 1.3478 level, which represents its .382 Ret(1.4719-1.2706 decline) with a penetration of there bringing further upside gains towards its .50 Ret at 1.3716.On the whole, while our broader view remains to the downside, our concern is the inability of the pair to push below the 1.2706/66 support zone.

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Published on  Fri, Feb 13 2009, 14:41 GMT

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