EURUSD: A swing low (lower low) may be shaping up as most of its intra day weakness on Wednesday was reversed to close marginally lower at 1.5580.A recovery higher was seen in early morning trading today suggesting that its July 24’08 low at 1.5627 could be targeted ahead of its .50 Ret/back of its invalidated LT trendline at 1.5668/81.Above this level if seen will create scope for further gains towards the 1.5842 level, its Jun 09’08 high followed by the 1.5945 level, its July 22’08 high and ultimately the 1.6018/37 zone, its April 22’08/YTD highs. If however this view fails to play out, EUR is expected to turn back towards its Wednesday low at 1.5521 with the 1.5459/67 zone, its .786 Ret/Jun 23’08 low seen as the next downside objective. Invalidating the later will pave the way for a run at its May/June’08 lows at 1.5302/1.5283.On the whole, nearer term weakness remains in force and any recovery at this stage is seen as corrective of its decline from the 1.6037 level.
| .618 Ret (1.5302-1.6037 rally) |
| .786 Ret/Jun 23’08 low |
| May/June’08 lows |
| July 24’08 low |
| .50 Ret/back of its invalidated LT trendline |
| Jun 09’08 high |
| July 22’08 highs |
