EURUSD: After halting its decline off the 1.5817 (May 27’08 high) and trading to as high as 1.5842 (Intra day high) on Monday,EUR subsequently collapsed to close lower at 1.5646 at the end of the session. It was seen heading further lower in early morning trading today leaving the next downside target at its Jun 05’08 low at 1.5364 as the next downside objective. Although a clean break and hold above the 1.5817 level is required to open up risk towards the 1.6018 level, its YTD high, losing the earlier mentioned level(1.5364) will put our upside view on hold and increase the odds of weakness towards its May 08’08 low at 1.5283 and possibly lower aiming at its .50 Ret (1.4309-1.6018 high) at 1.5164.The daily and weekly momentum indicators remain supportive of this view. Upside targets are seen at the 1.5817 high, its May 27’08 high, the 1.5895/I 5912 area, its Mar 31’08 high/April 10’08 high and next its YTD high at 1.6018.On the whole, while the pair’s medium term trend remains to upside, its present price action remains suggestive of its short term bearishness being triggered which has been on hold since May 08’08.
| .382 Fib Ret/Mar 24’08 low/May 02’08 |
| May 08’08 low |
| .50 Ret (1.4309-1.6018 high) |
| May 06’08 high |
| April 03’08 low |
| May 27’08 high |
| Mar 31’08 high/April 10’08 High |
