EURUSD: A third-day of upside recovery was registered on Monday pushing the pair to as high as 1.5559.This is coming on the back of a corrective bounce off the 1.5285 low following its failure to hold below its strong support at the 1.5360/41 area, its May 02’08/Mar 24’08 lows/.382 Ret (1.4438-1.6018 rally) the past week. The pair’s May 06’08 high standing at 1.5593 will be targeted on any further strength from its present price levels with a break and hold above there setting the stage for higher prices towards the 1.5710 level, its April 18’08 low where a decisive penetration will be required to put the present downside threat on hold and bring more upside gains towards the 1.5895 /me 5912 area, its Mar 31’08 /April 10’08 highs and then its psycho level/YTD high at 1.6000/18.This view remains in line with its medium and longer term outlooks.However,continued trading at the present levels or even below the 1.5710 level should put pressure on the downside towards the 1.5360/41 zone followed by the 1.5164 level, its .50 Ret (1.4309-1.6018 high) or even lower aiming at its .618 Ret at 1.5048.Daily studies are positive and trending higher supporting this view. On the whole, EUR remains on a recovery path from its recent low at 1.5285 but its short term trend remains to the downside.
| .382 Fib Ret/Mar 24’08 low/May 02’08 |
| .50 Ret (1.4309-1.6018 high) |
| .618 Ret |
| April 07’08 low/Psycho Level |
| April 18’08 low |
| Mar 31’08 high/2008 Peak |
| Psycho Level/YTD high |
