The markets continued to chip chop away on Wednesday. The EURUSD managed to break below trend line support but follow thru has been limited to this point. The GBPUSD has respected support at 1.6085. Heading into Thursday's trading the data flow begins to pick up. the AUD Employment report is due at 00:30 GMT. Expectations are for a reading of 0 with the employment rate landing at 3.5 %. In North American trading the BoE and ECB will both deliver their rate decisions. The BoE is expected to remain sidelined and to abstain from delivering a policy statement. The ECB most likely will keep rated flat also but Draghi's press conference after the announcement could provide some works. All right that is it for now. Everyone remember to keep your trades KEANE and play it tight.
EURUSD ATTEMPTING TREND-LINE BREAK AHEAD OF ECB
The EURUSD has the ECB and Draghi lined up Thursday in early North American trading. The pair is attempting to break below the ascending trend line around 1.3085 to close out the day in North America. A break exposes the cross to a test of the resistance zone between 1.3020/1.30 followed by 1.2885. If the pair manages to squeeze back above the trend line price resistance is layered just above between 1.3140 and 1.3180.
The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rate unchanged tomorrow. Draghi’s press conference that follows is what most traders will be watching. If Draghi hints of further rate cuts the pair could be in for a larger decline from the ascending daily trend line at 1.0385 towards the bottom of the current range around 1.27.
Sup 1.3020/00 1.2885
Res 1.3085 1.3140/80
GBPUSD CHIP CHOPPING AWAY
The GBPUSD since Monday’s push higher has consolidated in a tight 50 pip range. The BoE rate decision is due in early New York trading Thursday. The Bank of England is expected to remain on the sidelines. If the BoE maintains a wait and see approach a policy statement will most likely not be released. This could be bullish for the GBPUSD and break of the top of the range would be favored.
Currently the pair is traveling in tight range between 1.6130 and 1.6085. A push above the top of the range opens the pair up to a run towards 1.6180/1.62. A break lower finds support right away around 1.6050.
Sup 1.6085 1.6050 1.60
Res 1.6130 1.6180
Keane Plan…Looking for a break to the top or bottom of the current range.
AUDUSD DATA,DATA,DATA...EMPLOYMENT ON THE WAY
The AUDUSD managed to break out of the ridiculously tight range between 1.0485 and 1.0460 in New York trading. The pair now has support at 1.0435. It will take a break of this level to open the cross up for a move down towards 1.04/1.0350 area. Resistance is still just above at 1.0485. Above that level resistance is scattered.
The AUDUSD employment report is due in early Asian Trading 00:30 GMT. Expectations are for a zero reading and for the employment rate to settle at 3.5%.
Sup 1.0435 1.04 1.0350
Keane Plan…Need to see a solid break of the chop zone before entering.
NZDUSD KEEPING MY EYES ON THE LARGER PICTURE
The NZDUSD is in a larger range between .83 and .81. The.82 level has attempted to act as a pivot in the middle. At the moment the cross is in a smaller range between .8270 and .82. A break above the .8270 level favors a run towards .83. A move back below .82 could see a push towards .8160. So as you can see the risk reward of playing the inside of the range is rather moot. Until the pair reaches the extremes of the range standing aside could be the key.
Sup .82 .8160 .81
Res .8270 .83
Keane Plan….Waiting for a move up towards either the .83 or .81 level.
USDCAD AT HOME BETWEEN 99 and 9950
The USDCAD has been in a slumber for the last few weeks of trading. The pair has found a comfort range between .9950 and .99. It will take a break of this range to add the spark back to this pair. A break above .9950 could lead to another test of parity followed by the 50 fib at 1.0040. A break below the bottom of the range finds support at .9870 followed by .9765.
Sup .99 .9870 .9765
Res .9950 1.0000 1.0040
Keane Plan…Waitng for a break of the tight range between .9950 and .99.
USDJPY SPECULATION,CONJECTURE AND OTHER THOUGHTS
The USDJPY and JPY pairs in general have been consolidating since the JPY managed to pop higher. The USDJPY may be in the process of forming a descending wedge (Speculation). Or the cross could be in a bull flag pattern looking to push higher once again (Conjecture). The pair is in the process of creating lower highs on the daily chart ( Other Thoughts).
What I can tell you for sure is that the pair has a solid base support level at 81.70. A break of that level could lead to another test of the past support zone between 81/80.60. Resistance begins at the descending TL at 82.70 followed by daily price resistance at 83.20. A break of the 81.70 thru 82.70 range will be needed to kick things off once again.
Sup 81.70 81.80.60
Res 82.70 83.20
Keane Plan….Interested in the price action around the 81.70 area.