Hurricane Sandy’s tour through the NE has slowed currency markets to a crawl to start the week. Things could shift back to normal on Wednesday. Heading into Asian and European trading all eyes will be on the EURUSD and AUDUSD. The EURUSD is testing the top of its descending channel at 1.2975 and the AUDUSD is once again probing around the 50 Fib at 1.0386. A break or hold of these levels will dictate price action on Wednesday. The economic docket is slim on Wednesday. So any news out of Europe could send the markets moving. As always, remember to keep your trades KEANE and play it safe.
EURUSD TURF WAR AT THE CHANNEL TOP
The EURUSD has managed to claw its way back to the top of the descending channel the pair has followed lower over the last few weeks at 1.2970. A hold of this level could lead to another test of daily price support at 1.2885. These levels appear to create a wedge within the channel. If the bottom of the wedge gives at 1.2885 a test of channel support at 1.2840 could play out. If the cross manages to break above the channel and wedge resistance begins at 1.3020.
Sup 1.2885 1.2840
Res 1.2970 1.3020
GBPUSD RIDING THE CHANNEL LOWER
The GBPUSD has rebounded since moving lower towards the .382 fib at 1.5999 to start the week. The cross is now resting near the top of the channel it has ridden lower since Mid-September. The channel top currently rest around 1.61. This level also the weekly high and should act as solid resistance. Support still rest at the .382 fib at 1.5999. A break of this level could open the pair up to a test of the 50 fib from September’s advance at 1.5903.
Sup 1.5999 1.5903
Keane Plan….Looking for a move towards resistance to fade.
AUDUSD TESTING THE 50 FIB
The AUDUSD has continued to consolidate near the 50 fib at 1.0386 from September’s decline. A strong resistance zone rest between 1.0386 and 1.0410. As long as the pair remains below this level a move lower towards support at 1.03 is favored. A break of this level exposes 1.02.
Sup 1.03 1.02
Keane Plan..Watching for a rejection near the 50 fib…
NZDUSD COULD IT BE A WEDGE
Over the last week the pair has been consolidating in a narrow range. Price action is capped by daily price resistance at .8250. A rising trend line from the bottom of the current range at .82 should act as support. If the manages to break below the descending TL support begins at .8150. A push above the .8250 exposes September’s highs at .8350.
Keane Plan…Watching the wedge between .8250 and .82 for a break.
USDCAD PARITY PARTY
The USDCAD managed to break above parity briefly in Asian trading but could not hold onto its gains. Parity may be a psychological level but the real test rest at the 50 Fib from the decline between August to September at 1.0040. A break of this level could lead to a test of the topside of the larger declining channel. Weekly support now begins at .9970.
Res 1.0040 ( 50 Fib)
Keane Plan… Currently consolidating between .9970 and 1.0040. Looking for a break in either direction.
USDJPY BOJ JUST MEETS EXPECTATIONS
While most North American trader’s attention was focused on hurricane Sandy and its effect on New York City the BOJ quietly expanded its asset purchase program. The BOJ pledged to continue the program until deflation dissipates. The monetary value pledged was at the lower end of expectation and caused a bit of volatility. The pair looks as though it could be forming a rough head and shoulders pattern. If the pair remains below 79.65 a move lower towards support at 78.85 could be in the cards.
Keane Plan….Favoring a move lower towards 78.85 if the pair remains below 79.65