The Majors have been drifting around without much conviction over the last few days. Volumes have been low and so has price movement. Things should begin to pick up in early Asian trading with the release of the AUD Employment Report from Australia and CPI and Retail Sales reports from China. The pairs to watch will be the AUDUSD for a break of channel resistance around 1.0610 and the USDCAD sitting on yearly ascending trend support. As always keep your trades KEANE and play it safe.
EURUSD SUMMER BLUES
The EURUSD has been slowly drifting around in a range so far this week. The pair has touched the bottom and top of the range without too much excitement. Support begins at 1.2330 and resistance begins at 1.2440. In early trading Wednesday the pair bounced of resistance at 1.2330 but could not gather much momentum. A push above 1.24 could open up another test of 1.2440. Data flow out of Australia and China in early Asian trading could spark a movement in risk that may knock the pair out of its doldrums.
Res 1.24 1.2440
Keane Insight: Consolidation in a narrow range. Waiting for a break in either direction.
GBPUSD IN A WEDGE
The GBPUSD has been steadily making higher lower and higher highs over the last few weeks. For this trend to continue the pair will have to break above resistance at 1.5675. This level has contained all attempts higher so far this week. A break above the 1.5675 level could open the pair up to a test of the 50 fib from the May lows at 1.5734. Support can be found at the ascending trend line created from the higher lows around 1.5520.
Keane Insights: The pair is trying to push higher waiting for a break of resistance at 1.5675 or a push back towards support.
AUDUSD EMPLOYMENT REPORT ON TAP
The AUDUSD has been a lazy pair over the last few days. The cross opened the week at 1.0561 and is currently trading at 1.0564. The pair has traveling in about a 50 pip range. Things may be about to change. At 1:30 GMT the AUD Employment Report is scheduled to be released. Economist are looking for 10K jobs to be added and an unemployment rate around 5.3%. The gravy could be in the details with full-time jobs expected to fall 33.5K and part-time jobs expected to advance by 6.6K. A better than expected report could send the pair up towards the 1.0630 level. If the cross can gain traction above its ascending trend line the pair could make a run towards yearly highs over the next few weeks. If the data disappoints, a move towards trend line support at 1.0435 could play out. Data will also be dropping out of China that could impact this cross. CNY Consumer Prices 1.7%, Fixed Assets 20.6%, Industrial Production 10.4% and Retail Sales 14.3% are due at 5:30 GMT.
Keane Insight: Watch Employment and China Data for direction. Better than expected jobs could push the pair above channel support
NZDUSD BREAK BELOW TREND LINE
The NZDUSD broke below trend line support that has guided the pair higher over the last three weeks in New York. Resistance is now past support at the bottom of the descending trend line near .82. Any move up towards that level could run into sellers. In the short-term support begins around .8125 followed by the bottom of the congestion zone around .8060.
Sup .8125 .8060
Keane Insight: Looking for a move lower in the short term
USDCAD BREAK BELOW TREND LINE
The USDCAD broke below the bottom of its descending trend line on Wednesday. The problem is the pair has run into a bigger obstetrical. The cross is now rubbing up against the ascending trend line that has guided the pair higher since last July. A break of this level could indicate a trend shift lower. Support is at the .9940 level. This level is created by the acceding and descending trend line from the larger and shallower trend. It will be interesting to watch the price action at this level. Resistance is still at now at parity.
Keane Insight: Resting against major support. A bounce higher or lower could produce a measures move.
USDJPY Higher Lows In The Works
The USDJPY faltered on another attempt to break above the range that has contained it for the last few weeks. On Wednesday the pair made another lower high. The cross has respected the ascending trend line throughout the current march higher. It looks as though the pair is attempting to move higher. Support can be found at the trend line at 78.30. Resistance rest at the top of the current range at 78.70. A break to the top of the range could lead to a test of 79.15 followed by 80. A break of the trend line and we could see another test of support at .78. The JPY Rate Decision is due in early Asian trading.
Keane Plan: Looking for either a bounce of the trend line or a break of 78.60 to ride higher.