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Euro vs Dollar − Fundamental News

Fri, Jul 3 2009, 10:28 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

A very thin day for fundamental news on the economic calendar as America celebrates the Independence Day, so we only have two items of news in Europe to report, which have already been released in this morning's London trading session.  The first of these was the final services PMI Data, a diffusion index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the services sector, which came in at 44.7 against a forecast of 44.5.  Statistically not important and very similar to last time around at 44.5 - conclusion - things are not moving forward and could raise the prospect of any interest rate cuts in Europe sooner rather than later.  The second, and perhaps more significant number this morning, was that of retail sales which came in far worse than expected at -0.4% against a forecast of -0.1% and a previous of +0.1% indicating a much more severe slowdown in consumption.

Just to recap on yesterday's data the NFP posted some truly horrific numbers which were very much on the cards following the signal from Wednesday's ADP numbers which once again proved an excellent early system and a good release to watch if you are proposing to trade intra day through the NFP data.  The numbers take the unemployment rate to 9.5%, up from 9.4% the last time and is not showing any signs of decreasing.   Not surprisingly the equity markets promptly sold off heavily as investors become ever more wary of a sustainable recovery.

In the meantime the ECB kept rates on hold (as was expected) with Trichet's statement focusing on the current deflationary pressure within the Eurozone which they expect to be "short lived" with "price stability to be maintained over the medium term, thereby continuing to support purchasing power of Europe area households" - words like to keep a firm Euro as they do not see the need to cut interest rates.

Published on  Fri, Jul 3 2009, 10:28 GMT