New York 23:10
London 04:10
Barcelona 05:10
Tokyo 13:10
Sydney 15:10

Currency Trading Majors Pairs

This report has been deactivated

Forex Analysis GBP/USD

Wed, Sep 16 2009, 08:30 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Forex Technical Analysis

Unlike the euro vs dollar which is benefitting from systemic dollar weakness, the pounds to dollars pair is failing to capitalise and remains waterlogged in the USD1.65 region and yesterday's comments from BOE Governor King did little to help Sterling which reversed lower as a result. Technically yesterday's candle ended the forex trading session as a wide spread down bar which whilst negative in sentiment did manage to find a modicum of support later in the day from the 14 day moving average which suggests that we may see Sterling dragged higher in trading today. The longer term picture remains the same in that only a break and hold above USD1.66 will signal any bullish move higher whilst a breach of the USD1.60 will indicate that a bearish sentiment towards Sterling is in the ascendency. With all three moving averages now tightly bunched there is little that can be gained from these technical indicators until the current sideways consolidation comes to an end.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

Today's fundamental news on the economic calendar for the UK and the US starts in the UK with data relating to the labour market. The first number due is the claimant count change which is expected to come in at 24.7k against a previous of 24.9k and may show whether the rate at which jobs are being lost is finally beginning to slow. Next we have the Average Earnings Index which details the cost of labour to businesses - this figure is considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation as when businesses have to pay higher salaries then this is inevitably passed onto the consumer. The final element of this data set is the unemployment rate which is expected to be 8% against a previous of 7.8%. Meanwhile you can find all the fundamental news items for the US on the main euro vs dollar site.

Published on Wed, Sep 16 2009, 08:30 GMT

Forex Analysis Euro vs Dollar

Wed, Sep 16 2009, 08:05 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Yesterday's candle on the daily euro vs dollar chart, reinforced once again the bullish sentiment which is now strongly evident in this forex pair, closing the trading session with a narrow body but with a deep lower wick, and well supported by the 9 day moving average. The reversal in the dollar's fortunes which many had been expecting has, so far, failed to materialise with the dollar index continuing its steep decline and given the technical picture for the index we should now see the euro vs dollar push higher towards an initial target of USD1.50 in the short term and possibly USD1.55 in the medium term. With the strong support platform now in place below we have plenty of protection to any short term reversals and therefore the only way to trade this pair at present is to the long side taking advantage of the upwards trend which is now developing nicely.

Forex Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental news on the economic calendar for the euro vs dollar starts today with Eurozone CPI which is forecast at -0.2%, unchanged since the last time and Core CPI which is expected at 1.2% as opposed to the 1.3% recorded previously. The focus then turns to the US where the data set starts with US Core CPI, CPI and the Current Account at 13.30 GMT. The first is epxected at 0.1%, unchanged since previous, CPI is forecast at 0.3% against a previous of 0.0% and the current account is expected to come in at -92bn as opposed to a previous of -101bn. Half an hour later we have the TIC data, a crucial measure of the difference in value between foreign long term securities purchased by US citizens and foreigners. The forecast is for 65.3bn, a fall since last month which posted 90.7bn. This is an extremely important number and should give the forex traders an indication of the demand for US T-bills - and maybe a clue as to whether the US dollar is likely to stop its inexorably march down. The day ends with three other pieces of economic data: the first is the Capacity Utilization Rate which is considered a leading indicator as it measures when producers are nearing full capacity and therefore need to start raising prices and higher costs to pass onto consumers. Today's number is expected to come in at 69.1%, a small increase from previous. The second item is Industrial Production, forecast at 0.7% against a previous of 0.5% and finally crude oil inventories which analysts have forecast to drop by -2.6mb against last month's dramatic -5.9mb. Gasoline & distillate stocks are expected to rise.

Published on Wed, Sep 16 2009, 08:05 GMT

Fundamental Forex News for Euro to Dollar

Tue, Sep 15 2009, 08:38 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

A busy and important day for fundamental news on the economic calendar for the euro to dollar and which started earlier with the release of the French month on month CPI numbers which came in better than expected at 0.5% against a forecast of 0.4%. This number tends to have a relatively muted effect on the market which is really waiting for the German ZEW Economic Sentiment number which is forecast to come in at 59.9 and if the actual comes in better than forecast then this may help to propel the Euro even higher. The ZEW is a diffusion index based on a survey of German institutional investors and much respected by forex traders. The afternoon session is then dominated by a raft of tier one data releases in the US with Core Retail Sales, month on month PPI, Retail Sales, Core PPI, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and all topped off with a speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

All the following items of fundamental news are scheduled for release at 13.30 GMT and will dramatically impact both the forex and wider markets as the number will try to give traders and investors a clearer picture of whether the fragile recovery is no more than mirage. The forecast for Core Retail Sales (excluding cars) is 0.4% against a previous of -0.6% and whilst analysts expect sales to rise what is becoming increasingly obvious is that consumer spending in the US is decidedly muted. This is hardly surprising given the state of the Labor market and the extent to which consumers are repaying their debt. Today's numbers may give the market a clue as to whether the great American consumer will ride to the rescue of the global economy. At the same time the PPI numbers are released and these are expected at 0.9% against a previous of -0.9% and as a leading indicator of consumer inflation will also indicate if the pendulum is swinging towards inflation or deflation. The forecast for retail sales is 1.9% against a previous of -0.1%. Core PPI is expected at 0.1% against a previous of -0.1%. The final item is the Empire State Manufacturing Index which is expected at 14.7 against a previous of 12.1.

The final set of data is due at 15.00 GMT and starts with a speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke entitled "Reflections on a Year of Crisis" at the Brookings Institute in Washington which on the anniversary of the Lehmans collapse is particularly pertinent. The speech is followed by a question and answer session which can often cause some unexpected and unintended market reaction. During the speech the Business Inventories figures will also be released and which measure the change in the total value of goods held in inventory by manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. Traders watch this number as it is seen as a signal of future business spending if inventories are seen to have been depleted. Alternatively, if consumers are refusing to spend then this may explain any fall in this number. Today's number is expected to come in at -0.9% against a previous of -1.1%. Finally the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism number is due for release which is yet another diffusion index based on a survey of consumers. The number is expected to come in 52.1 against a previous of 50.3. As with many indices the number 50 is critical - any figure above is considered optimistic while any figure below being seen as pessimistic. All in all a highly significant and important day for all the markets.

Published on Tue, Sep 15 2009, 08:38 GMT

USD Index

Tue, Sep 15 2009, 07:40 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

From a technical perspective the USD index remains inherently weak with yesterday's price action merely confirming this view, with the index closing once again below all three moving averages which are pointing sharply lower. With the index now firmly established below the 77.50 level it will take a dramatic reversal in sentiment for the US to recover from this position and certainly at present there is no technical evidence on the daily chart that this is likely to happen in the short term. However, many forex market analysts and commentators are now suggesting that the US Dollar is heavily oversold and that we may see such a reversal even as early as this week. In addition it has been suggested that some member states of the forthcoming G20 meeting are likely to apply some indirect pressure to the US government to instigate such a reversal by whatever means as these countries are unable to sustain such chronic dollar weakness. The weekly USD index chart is extremely bearish with last week's wide spread down bar adding further to this bleak picture and the only area of support now available is that in the 75 to 76 price level and should this fail to provide a springboard then we are now looking at a further drop down to 72.30 and below, last seen in mid 2008.

Published on Tue, Sep 15 2009, 07:40 GMT

Yen To Dollar Weekly Chart

Mon, Sep 14 2009, 17:36 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

A change of view today, as I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the weekly chart for the yen to dollar forex pair, which provides a different perspective following the long sideways consolidation of the last few months, which now appears to finally have come to an end. In particular it is interesting to note the series of lower highs and lower lows which I have indicated on the chart with the blue trend lines. With the downwards trend now firmly established the only question technically is whether we will see yen to dollar break below the lower support line, or bounce higher within the trending channel, as we begin to approach the 87.00 price point where the previous move lower failed in early 2009.

Last week's wide spread down bar added considerable momentum to the bearish picture, and with all three moving averages now weighing heavily, we should see a deeper move in the yen to dollar pair in due course. The only caveat on this forex analysis is that many forex market analysts are now suggesting that the US dollar is heavily oversold, and with the next G20 meeting due shortly, some member countries could begin to apply pressure to the US to change their rhetoric and stance on dollar, which could result in sudden reversal in the yen to dollar pair. For now however, the trend seems well established and whilst a longer term trading opportunity, selling into the trend on any upswing near the upper trend line would seem to be the favoured forex trading strategy for the medium term.

Published on Mon, Sep 14 2009, 17:36 GMT

Euro Dollar − Fixed Odds Trade

Mon, Sep 14 2009, 16:48 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The FTSE's flirtation with the 5000 level looks as though it might be short lived as European markets start the week with a sell off. The FTSE 100, CAC and DAX are down around 1% in early trading with US futures indicating that Wall Street will open down by a similar amount this afternoon. The weekend sentiment has been on the negative side with fears that Obama's plans to raise the tax rates on certain Chinese imports will start a trade war that could harm the global economic recovery. There are no top tier economic announcements due today, but speeches from FOMC members Lacker and Yellen in the afternoon could create some ripples in the dollar pairs.

Fixed Odds Trading Tip

As the London session hots up, there are some interesting moves afoot. Last week the dollar was out of favour, but this morning it is one of the strongest currencies overall. The are big gains for the dollar against the pound, Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar as oil prices slip below $70 and commodity prices slip. The yen seems to be moving more in line with the dollar today with similar moves against the same currencies. The exception appears to be the euro which although down today, has not fallen by as much as other major currencies against the yen and dollar. This makes the euro vs dollar today's pair in play. In the last four trading sessions the EUR/USD has tried and failed to hold above the 1.4600 level. With the likes of the pound still struggling, it is perhaps unlikely that EUR/USD will find enough momentum to hold the level today. A double (down) trade might be the best way to play this, especially if the price gets closer to 1.4600 today.

Published on Mon, Sep 14 2009, 16:48 GMT

Forex Analysis − USD to CAD

Mon, Sep 14 2009, 14:47 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

A week of sideways consolidation for the usd to cad forex market, came to an end on Friday with yet another small doji candle, as the currency pair desperately try to rebase in the 1.07 price area, a feature we have seen once again in today's forex trading session. With all three moving averages now tightly bunched, the significance of these indicators is diluted at present as the pair continue to consolidate in this price region, and as I have outlined in previous posts, we could see some good swing trading opportunities in the next few weeks as the usd to cad pair oscillate between the 1.07 and 1.11 price levels. A break above the upper level would then provide a solid platform to a move higher, whilst a break below the 1.07 level will indicate that we could see a return of the bearish momentum of the last few months, and an approach towards parity once again. With many forex market analysts now suggesting that the US dollar is over sold and due a correction, we need to consider our forex trading strategy very carefully in the next few days, as this could come sooner rather than later with a consequent rally in the usd to cad pair.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

A thin day of fundamental news on the economic calendar with the only Canadian figures being the Capacity Utilization Rate ( a catchy term!) which is a measure of how efficiently resources are being used in the country. The figures just released came in at 67.4%, down from last month's 70.2% , but better than the forecast at 65.8% so a mixed picture, but not good news for the Canadian economy, although this indicator tends to have a relatively limited impact on the forex markets. The US markets are dominated by speeches today, with several FOMC members and President Obama all covering the recent financial crisis in one way or another so no doubt the markets will be waiting and watching for any key signals on future monetary or fiscal policy over the next few hours.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links. I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.

Published on Mon, Sep 14 2009, 14:47 GMT

Forex Analysis − Pounds To Dollars

Sun, Sep 13 2009, 18:06 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

A strong week for the pounds to dollars pair last week, ended on Friday with a relatively weak signal, with the daily chart closing the trading session with a small shooting star candle, suggesting that we may see the gbp/usd forex market reverse in Monday's trading session as a result. Overall, last week's mini rally pushed the currency pair back above the strong resistance level at the 1.66 price handle, but whether the close of 1.6653 is sufficient to provide the necessary cushion to any reversal, only time will tell. With the apparent breakout now complete, and with the 9 day now crossing above the 14 day moving average, this is adding to the bullish picture. However, with many forex analysts and market commentators now suggesting that we may see a sharp rally in the US dollar and a change in sentiment this week, then this would naturally signal a consequent fall in the dollars to pounds pair as a result, confirming the short term bearish signal of Friday.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

There is little fundamental news on the economic calendar for Monday, with none in the UK, and only a series of speeches scheduled in the US, the most significant of which is that by President Obama, and all concerned with various aspects of the recent financial crisis, so will no doubt be eagerly watched by the forex markets for any hidden signals as to future monetary and fiscal policy.

Published on Sun, Sep 13 2009, 18:06 GMT

Fundamental Forex Analysis − Euro to Dollar

Sun, Sep 13 2009, 09:54 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

A curious start to the week for the euro to dollar forex pair, with very little real fundamental news on the economic calendar tomorrow, but instead we have several speeches from FOMC members and between these is an address from President Obama in the US markets. For Europe there are two items of news which start with the Industrial Production figures followed by the Employment Change, with the first of these forecast at -0.3%against a previous of -0.6%. The figures tend to have a relatively muted impact on the forex markets as both Germany and France which constitute over 50% of the European economy, release their figures earlier, and whilst this is considered a leading indicator, the effects are low key for the euro to dollar, and other forex pairs. The only other item for Europe is the Employment Change which is forecast at -0.8%, but again this will have limited impact on the euro dollar.

The afternoon in the US for fundamental news is punctuated by speeches starting with FOMC member Duke, followed by President Obama, and completed with a speech by FOMC Lacker and finally FOMC member Yellen. All four speeches cover some aspect of the financial crisis, so we could see some interesting reactions in the forex markets tomorrow, and indeed many forex analysts and forex market commentators are now suggesting that we may see a significant shift in the US dollar sentiment which is now widely believed to be oversold, and the speeches on Monday could provide the trigger for the US dollar to stage a recovery.

Published on Sun, Sep 13 2009, 09:54 GMT

USD Index

Thu, Sep 10 2009, 06:16 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

A defining day yesterday on the daily chart, as the USD Index finally broke below the 77.50 very platform outlined in previous posts, and closed the trading session with a wide spread down bar with a very small wick to the bottom of the candle. The USD index is now extremely bearish, with all three moving averages pointing sharply lower, and with only minor support between the current level and the next floor at 71, a deep move lower now seems likely for the US dollar, with the euro vs dollar already a major beneficiary of this sustained and continued dollar weakness. The weekly chart for the USD index paints a similar picture with the only question now being whether the support in the 71-72 price region will actually prevent a collapse in the US dollar. In the short term there is little but 'fresh air' on the daily chart, and over the next few days we are likely to see increasing momentum in the downwards move, as equity markets continue to draw investors into the market as their appetite for risk remains undiminished, and until this sentiment changes then the USD will continue to fall. This bearish picture has also been given impetus for the Chinese who are now offloading their US dollars in favour of gold, which triggered the recent breakout in gold prices of the last few days.

Published on Thu, Sep 10 2009, 06:16 GMT

Pound To Dollars Daily Chart

Wed, Sep 9 2009, 16:17 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Unlike the euro vs dollar, the pounds to dollars pair remains relatively waterlogged, continuing to consolidate below the USD1.66 price level with yesterday's up candle attempting to breach this level but falling just short once again. Technically the candle found support from the 14 day moving average and closed the forex trading session marginally above the 40 day moving average suggesting that we may see a further attempt to break out of this level and to follow the Eurodollar higher. Only a break and hold above this price point will confirm this view and it will come as no great surprise should we see a failure here once again.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

Owing to the Labor Day national holiday in the US there is little fundamental news on the economic calendar for either the US Dollar or Sterling. The crude oil inventory data is due for release tomorrow and we only have the Beige Book data later today. Meanwhile in the UK the only item of any signficiance was the Nationwide Consumer Confidence Data, a composite index based on a survey of around 100 consumers, which came in at 63 against a forecast of 62 suggesting that the UK may be climbing out of recession.

Published on Wed, Sep 9 2009, 16:17 GMT

Euro vs Dollar

Wed, Sep 9 2009, 13:24 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Euro vs dollar forex traders finally received the price action they have been craving for so long as the forex pair broke above the pennant formation which has been forming during August with a strong break higher to take the rate through the USD1.44 level at long last and closing the session just below USD1.45. Technically the chart ended with a wide spread up bar which now clearly signals that we are in for a period of bullish momentum for the Euro and with our initial price target now having been achieved we can look towards the USD1.50 level once again. The only area of resistance which may cause a temporary pullback is the upper boundary at USD1.4700 region but if this broken then we have a clear run back to USD1.50 and even as high as last year's USD1.60.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

A surprisingly quiet day both for Europe and the US with very little fundamental news on the economic calendar with only German final CPI this morning in Europe which came in on target at 0.2%, the same as last time. Owing to the Labor Day national holiday there are no crude oil inventory numbers due today and the only other item for the US is the Beige Book which is due for release at 19.00 GMT.

Published on Wed, Sep 9 2009, 13:24 GMT

Forex Analysis USD to CAD

Fri, Sep 4 2009, 07:52 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

The usd to cad daily chart is once again delicately balanced as the forex pair try to recover and rally higher, following the steep falls of the summer months, with yesterday's candle making a brave attempt to find some support in an effort to push higher once again, but ending the forex trading session with a small body and deep lower wick. The low of the day did manage to find some support from the three moving averages , but as they are now tightly bunched are providing little in the way of any meaningful technical analysis. However, and perhaps of more significance, are the attempts to breach the 1.11 price level where we have seen six failures in the last few weeks. Should this level fail to be breached, which is combined with some deep resistance, then we can assume that the usd to cad pair will move lower in due course once again, to re-test the support now in place at the 1.065 price level.

Fundamental Forex Anlaysis

The main item of fundamental news for Canada today is the unemployment data, which is of course mirrored in the US with the monthly circus of the Non Farm Payroll so a lively couple of hours are in prospect on the usd to cad today. The Ivey PMI report is due out 90 minutes after the release of the NFP figures, but may well get drowned out in the ensuing cacophony and volatility that always follows the NFP data. With both the US and Canadian markets closed on Monday for a national holiday, we may have to wait for later in the week to see where the usd to cad is heading in the medium term, and the above numbers may provide a catalyst for the pair to break out of the current consolidation range and to set a new trend moving forwards into the last third of the year.

Published on Fri, Sep 4 2009, 07:52 GMT

USD Index

Fri, Sep 4 2009, 07:37 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The USD index continues to bump along the bottom, desperately trying to find a foothold and some support at the current price level, as it attempts to build a position from which to rally higher and recover from the downwards decline of the last few months. The signs however are not good, with yesterday's price action negating most of the gains of Wednesday, and once again closing the trading session below the 9 and 14 day moving averages, and just above the 40 day average. Technically the USD index daily chart remains very weak, and only a break and hold above the 81.50 price level will signal that a possible recovery is likely, supported by all three moving averages. Until we see this occur, then the outlook is bleak for the US dollar, but with today's NFP data due for release in the US later, will either provide the spark that the dollar index desperately needs in order to kick start a recovery in the fortunes of the US dollar, or simply drive it further down. With the US and Canadian markets closed on Monday for a national holiday, we may have to wait until later in the week to see any follow thorough from today's numbers, but should the index close below the current floor at 77.50, then this will signal a much deeper decline for the US dollar and a subsequent move lower for the index.

Published on Fri, Sep 4 2009, 07:37 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis for GBP/USD

Thu, Sep 3 2009, 16:00 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

An interesting day for the forex market and the pounds to dollars pair yesterday, as Cable regained virtually all of the loss of the previous day, ending the trading session with a relatively wide spread up bar which closed fractionally below the 9 day moving average. With such a deep and broad resistance area now above, and with all three moving averages now adding further downwards pressure, it seems unlikely that the pound dollar forex pair will be able to reverse the recent downwards trend in the short term, and only a break and hold above the 1.67 price level, coupled with support from all three moving averages would signal any longer term trend reversal. What seems increasingly likely is that the 1.60 price region will now play a pivotal role in the medium term rate for the pound vs dollar pair. Should this level be breached then we will almost certainly see a much deeper move, possibly to re-test support at the 1.55 price point, but alternatively should this support level remain intact, then it may provide the necessary springboard for a further attempt to move higher once again. However the gradual slow decline of the last few weeks seems more likely at present, with such moves punctuated with small rallies.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

The main fundamental news of the UK today was the release of the PMI Services Index which came in better than expected at 54.1 against a forecast of 53.9, adding to the good news which seems to be an increasing feature of all the fundamental news items both in the UK and in the US, with the US forex markets concentrating on the Unemployment Claims and Non Manufacturing data, with the first coming in worse than expected and the second marginally better. Tomorrow of course is all about Non Farm Payroll, and the monthly circus that this creates - no doubt the dust will settle once again on Monday as the markets return to regular trading volumes after the long summer recess.

Published on Thu, Sep 3 2009, 16:00 GMT

Forex Analysis for Euro vs Dollar

Thu, Sep 3 2009, 15:12 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

The euro vs dollar continues to flirt with the 1.440 price handle, teasing the forex market with an initial push higher, only to fall back exhausted in later trading, and today's price action has replicated this once again, promising much in the morning, only to fail to deliver later in the day. However before we assume that this level may prove to be an immovable barrier to any move higher for the euro vs dollar, it is important to note the role of the 40 day moving average, as once again yesterday it provided the platform for a push higher following the wide spread down bar of the previous day, and creating once again a series of lower highers as we edge on up towards this price level. Yesterday's candle also closed above the 14 day moving average, but marginally below the 9 day average. If today's candle holds firm then this will be another in a long series of failures to break through the 1.44 barrier, and each time we see a failed attempt on the daily chart then this adds to the likelihood of a move lower. However, don't be fooled by this apparent weakness - the euro vs dollar has a nasty habit if doing the exact opposite when you least expect, and remember that the 40 day moving average, whilst a weak signal, is still there in the background.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

The main news today was of course the ECB rate decision, and it came as no surprise to the forex markets that rates were kept on hold once again at 1.o%. In the accompanying statement, Jean Claude Trichet, said that any rebound was "expected to be uneven" both "inside and outside the euro area", but that recent economic indicators and fundamental news was beginning to suggest that the worst was over for the European member states. There was little forex market reaction to the news either to the rate decision or following statement. Meanwhile in the US markets the main fundamental news items on the economic calendar included the weekly unemployment claims which came in worse than expected at 570,000 against a forecast of 563,000, whilst the ISM Non Manufacturing Index was marginally better at 48.4 against a forecast of 48.3, as we claw our way ever closer to the magic 50 which indicates an industry in expansion rather than one in contraction.

Published on Thu, Sep 3 2009, 15:12 GMT

Binary Trade with GBP/USD

Wed, Sep 2 2009, 10:02 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Following six unconvincing trading sessions, the bulls finally buckled, allowing the bears to run amok as across the global major stock indices suffered their worst day since early July. September is historically the worst month for the stock market although volatility does not tend to kick in until after Labor Day when the big beasts return to their desk to unravel what their underlings have done during the summer!! So far this morning the FTSE, CAC and DAX have all opened up on the back foot once again, with the FTSE 100 the strongest of this set.

The volatility is unlikely to subside today with the number of top tier economic announcements due today. The highlights include US ADP Non Farm Employment change at 12.15 GMT, which often acts as warm up to Friday’s Non Farm Payroll figures. Following this we have the release of the FOMC meeting minutes at 18.00 GMT.

Pair in play

Risk taking was off the table yesterday with the pound, euro and Australian dollar falling heavily against the yen and dollar. So far this morning there is a slight bias towards risk aversion with the GBP/JPY one of the biggest fallers on the day. However, with ADP payroll figures due out around midday, forex markets are unlikely to stay quiet for so long. Given the jitters shown yesterday, if ADP numbers come out much worse than expected, there could be an exaggerated reaction to the down side. The best pair to play this could be the GBP/USD using a One Touch trade with the trigger set to 1.6000.

Published on Wed, Sep 2 2009, 10:02 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis for Euro vs Dollar

Wed, Sep 2 2009, 09:32 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Another interesting day for the euro vs dollar, as the trading session ended with a wide spread down bar, which breached both the 9 day and 14 day moving averages. Once again the forex pair failed to push higher and break above the 1.44 price handle which is now taking on an increasingly significant role, for any sustained push higher. However, before we assume that the euro vs dollar is likely to fail at this level, it is interesting to note that the 40 day moving average, which once again provided the key support level yesterday, preventing any further fall. This is a technical feature of the daily chart that now seems to be being repeated, and to date has occurred 3 times in the last month, with a subsequent bounce higher as a result, so it would be no great surprise to see the same effect again today.

Forex Fundamental News

The main piece of fundamental news today on the economic calendar started in Europe with the revised q/q GDP numbers which came in on target at -0.1%. At the same time the PPI data for the whole of Europe was also released and which came in at -0.8% against a target of -0.5%. The latter number has a more muted effect as the market tends to react to the individual German and French numbers. However, today's figure does point once again to the fact that deflationary pressure continues to persist in Europe. Later in the US we have the release of the ADP figures for employment, which although is a relatively new indicator, nevertheless can provide a good guide to the more significant NFP results due for release on Friday from the Labour Department. The numbers are based on increases or decreases in payroll figures during the month, and therefore provides a solid base for analysis of the employment market trends month on month. The forecast for today is for -250,000 against a previous of -371,000, once again reinforcing the view that the worst of the recession may be over. This release is accompanied by two other more minor employment numbers: the revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q & the revised Unit Labor Costs q/q. The day ends for the US with the m/m factory order, crude oil inventories, a speech from FOMC member Lockhart and release of the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting which can cause a degree of volatility in the forex market. All in all a day which starts relatively quietly but promises to end with a bang!

Published on Wed, Sep 2 2009, 09:32 GMT

Forex Analysis for USD/CAD

Tue, Sep 1 2009, 09:40 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Yesterday's candle on the usd to cad daily chart, suggested that the recent attempt to rebase and squeeze higher may have come to an abrupt halt, as the forex trading session closed with a bearish shooting pattern. The upper wick of the candle was particularly deep, and in addition the high of the day failed to breach the 1.11 level once again, where this rally stalled earlier, adding to the view that we may see a move lower in the short term once again for the usd to cad pair. However, it should be noted that yesterday's close did find a modicum of support from the 9 and 14 day moving averages, so any short position trading today should bear this factor in mind. A break below both the moving averages will add further weight to the bearish picture now coming back into play once again with an initial target of 1.07 in mind once again.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

As we start a new forex trading month for the usd to cad, there is no fundamental news on the economic calendar for Canada today, with all the news coming from the US, which I have covered for you in more detail on the euro vs dollar site.

Published on Tue, Sep 1 2009, 09:40 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis Pounds to Dollars

Tue, Sep 1 2009, 09:31 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

It is hard to see how the pounds to dollars pair is going to recover from the technically bearish position in the short term, with all three moving averages now pressing heavily on Sterling , and coupled with the strong support which has now effectively been breached in the last few days, any recovery higher will require a sustained effort and a large dose of US dollar weakness. Yesterday's candle ended the forex trading session as a small doji, with the low of the day finding some support in the 1.62 price region, in much the same way as towards the end of last week, suggesting that the forex market is trying to rebase at this level. However as outlined above any attempt to move higher will need to breach all three moving averages as well as break and hold above the deep consolidation area, both of which seem unlikely at present. More likely is a re-test of the 1.60 price handle in the short to medium term, which may provide a stronger platform for any reversal higher once again. However, should this level be breached then a deeper move to 1.55 or below would be a possibility in the medium term.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

As we start a new month of fundamental news for Cable, the key data this morning will be the Manufacturing PMI number which is forecast to remain above the '50' level, at 51.5 against a previous of 50.8, suggesting once again that we are seeing an industry in expansion rather than one in contraction. As a leading indicator it is one that the forex markets will watch closely, and indeed this picture is likely to replicated later in the US where we have the equivalent data in the afternoon for the US economy, which also shows a similar picture. The other main item of fundamental news in the UK are the Mortgage Approvals, which are expected to show a very small increase once again. All the other items of news are covered in more detail on the euro vs dollar site or on the economic calendar by following the appropriate link.

Published on Tue, Sep 1 2009, 09:31 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis Euro vs Dollar 1 Sept 2009

Tue, Sep 1 2009, 09:20 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

With the UK market closed yesterday for a national holiday, trading volumes in the euro vs dollar were relatively thin, and as a result we saw a volatile day of forex trading on little news, with the candle ending as a doji, and perhaps more significantly and 'inside day' or the Japanese term 'harami'. This is often the first signal that a reversal is likely, although given the fact that we are in effect consolidating sideways, the signal probably has less weight on this occasion. Indeed the low of yesterday's candle seemed to find support from the 14 day moving average, with the close of the trading session balanced on the 9 day, both of which suggest that the euro vs dollar will continue to edge higher in trading once again. The key to the medium term remains the new resistance level now in place at 1.4450, and only a break and hold above here will signal a breakout and sustained move higher. With all three moving averages providing solid support my trading suggestion for today is to attempt small long positions intra day, but only as far as the initial target outlined above. Should we subsequently clear this level in due course then longer term trend trades may well profit from the move.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

The new month of fundamental news for Europe kicks off with German Retail Sales forecast to show an improvement from last time at -1.3% to a positive 0.7%, and if met will once again confirm that the recession is beginning to flatten as the long slow recovery begins. This is followed later in the morning with the German Unemployment change which is also expected to provide further good news for Europe with a forecast of +33k against a previous of -6k, although this 'good news story' may be counterbalanced by the Unemployment Rate for Europe which is expected to show an increase once again from 9.4% last time to 9.5% today, although being a lagging indicator this fundamental news may not surprise the forex markets.

Published on Tue, Sep 1 2009, 09:20 GMT

Forex Analysis USD/JPY

Mon, Aug 31 2009, 18:18 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

The yen to dollar pair continued their stately progress lower last week, as they continue to slide lower in a series of lower highs and lower lows as shown on today's forex chart for the currency pair, with Friday's candle reinforcing this bearish tone once again with a weak candle and a deep upper shadow. To confirm this picture the high of the day met resistance from the 9 day moving average, failing to clear this technical indicator before falling back to close the week and the session lower, having broken below through the floor of the support level at 0.94 once again. With all three moving averages now weighing heavily once again, we should see this pattern continue in trading next week and as a result begin to look for the 89,00 price level which would seem to be suggested from a forex analysis of the daily chart.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

The Far East trading session for fundamental news kicks off early on Monday with the release of several key pieces of news for the Japanese Yen, starting with Manufacturing PMI, Preliminary Industrial Production, and Retail Sales, which are followed up later with Housing Starts and a speech from Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa. Of these releases, the Industrial Production and Retail sales figures are the most significant, with the first forecast at 1.4% against a previous of 2.3%, and the latter at -3.3% against a previous of -2.9%. If both these forecasts are correct then this will be bad news for the Japanese economy which had been looking slightly more healthy in recent weeks with several key indicators suggesting that the bottom had been reached and the economy was beginning to recover ( albeit slowly). Housing starts are of lesser importance but once again if the forecast is correct at -30.3% against a previous of -32.4%, then once again this is not good news although given that we are in the depths of summer the numbers may not surprise the forex markets too much. In addition it will be interesting to see the extent to which the election of the DPJ affects the Yen in the short to medium term.

Published on Mon, Aug 31 2009, 18:18 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis for GBP/USD

Mon, Aug 31 2009, 18:08 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Friday's candle once again left the daily forex chart for Cable looking weak, ending the forex trading session with a narrow spread down bar, but deep upper shadow as the US dollar bulls forced the British Pound lower in later trading. The weakness is reinforced by the fact that the high of the day failed to break above any of the three moving averages, which are now adding to the bearish pressure from above. In addition, as the pair have almost breached the deep support level, and seem about to break out below the lower level, this is adding the the general technical weakness on the daily chart. The key for any deeper move is of course the 1.600 price handle and should this be broken in due course, then we may see a re-test of the 1.57 level as a result. The weekly chart also confirms this view with the shooting star candle sitting neatly above the recent price falls, and with last weeks closing price ending below both the 9 week and 14 week moving averages, this again is confirming our forex technical analysis for the pounds to dollars pair.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

Monday is of course a national holiday in the UK, so there is no fundamental news on the economic calendar for today for the British Pound, with the only data in the US being the Chicago PMI, which is expected to confirm that we may now be reaching the end of the recession and bottoming out into the long slow and no doubt painful recovery.

Published on Mon, Aug 31 2009, 18:08 GMT

Forex Analysis USD vs CAD

Mon, Aug 31 2009, 17:59 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Forex analysis of the USD to CAD daily chart is giving us some mixed forex trading signals at the moment, with Friday's candle suggesting a bullish tone, whilst in contrast Thursday's bar indicated a bearish sentiment in the market. If we start with Thursday, the wide spread down bar suggested a bearish engulfing pattern to forex trading for Friday, which failed to materialise with the session ending higher, and with the deep lower wick of the trading session indicating that the US dollar bulls controlled the session. The depth of this shadow suggests that we should see the USD to CAD rise early in the trading week with the low of the session finding support just above the 1.08 level, a price point which has provided a bounce to the pair in the past, most notably in mid May. For any sustained move higher we will need to see a break and hold above the 1.11 price handle and should this be breached, we could see a move higher once again as US dollar strength returns to the forex market in the new quarter.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

With some countries closed for a national holiday on Monday, and therefore even thinner trading volumes, the focus for the fundamental news on the economic calendar will be the monthly GDP figures which are forecast at 0.2% against a previous of -0.5%. Canada is unique in that it is the only country to release monthly GDP data, all the others release theirs quarterly, and therefore the impact can be less muted at times as the changes from one month to another are less pronounced and therefore cause less of a surprise to the forex markets in general. The only other item of news in a quiet day's trading is the Chicago PMI data in the US which is forecast at 47.4 against a previous of 43.4, which if achieved will add further evidence to the view that we are now moving out for the recessionary trough and into a long and sustained period of recovery.

Published on Mon, Aug 31 2009, 17:59 GMT

Forex Analysis Euro vs Dollar

Mon, Aug 31 2009, 09:11 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

The euro vs dollar continues to struggle to break above the 1.44 technical level on the daily forex chart, which increasingly seem to be becoming a key level for the forex pair. Following Thursday's strong move higher, technical view was that this should follow through on Friday, but with a return of some limited US dollar strength, the pair fell back in later forex trading markets to close the session and the week with a down candle, with the low of the day finding some support from the 9 day moving average. With seven failed attempts to clear this level, the resistance now building is becoming increasingly significant, and a barrier to any progress higher, however, should we see a break and hold above this level in due course, then this will provide a solid platform to any move higher in due course.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

There is very little in the way of significant fundamental news on the economic calendar for Europe today, with only Italian Retail Sales, Italian Preliminary CPI and the European CPI Flash estimates reporting. Of these the most important is the last, which measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, and is therefore an excellent guide to the current inflationary or deflationary picture in Europe. The forecast for today is for -o.4% against a previous of -0.7% so a slightly better picture than last time should this number be correct. For the US meanwhile, the only fundamental news item due out is the Chicago PMI data, which if the forecast is correct, shows an economy inching its way out of the depths of recession.

Published on Mon, Aug 31 2009, 09:11 GMT

Binary Trade Strategy for USD to CAD

Fri, Aug 28 2009, 09:58 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Last night the Dow Jones managed to close in the black for the eighth trading day on the trot. Reading this statistic, we might expect the week to be better than it actually has been. Most world stock markets are up on the week, but the gains have been negligible by recent standards. Nevertheless, the bulls have shown impressive resilience with the bears unable to drive markets down with any great strength. This morning the FTSE, DAX and CAC are taking their lead from the US and have opened up around 0.7% to 1% higher. This morning we saw the UK GDP figures at 08.30 GMT which came in marginally better than expected. This sees the US personal spending data and consumer sentiment figures, but these are expected to have only a medium impact on markets.

Pair in play

The Yen is in play again, this time on the defensive though. Buoyed by the ability of equity markets to hold their ground, the risk takers are dropping the yen in favour of the euro, dollar and pound. Of the commodity currencies, the Canadian dollar has been rangebound this week especially against the US dollar. If oil prices continue to stabilise, the USD/ CAD could continue its previous down trend and hit 1.08. A No Touch trade could be the best way to play this over three days.

Published on Fri, Aug 28 2009, 09:58 GMT

Forex Analysis for USD Index

Thu, Aug 27 2009, 16:13 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Analysis

The USD index continues to hover around the 77.50 to 78.50 price level, occasionally looking over the precipice before pulling back from the edge, and recovering a tiny piece of lost ground, with yesterday's candle shining a small chink of light onto an otherwise gloomy picture for US dollar bulls, with the daily candle ending the session trading higher - a rare occurrence. The high of the day just failed to penetrate the 14 day moving average which would have provided a stronger signal, and with all the heavyweight resistance immediately above, this can hardly be considered anything other than a tiny moral victory for the US dollar. For any sustained move we need to see a break and hold above the 81.50 price handle, and with the holiday season now ending fast, and with Labour Day on the horizon in the US, we may not ave too much longer to wait before we see a return to normal trading volumes once again and a possible change in sentiment for the US dollar.

Published on Thu, Aug 27 2009, 16:13 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis for USD/CAD

Thu, Aug 27 2009, 15:43 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Yesterday's wide spread up bar on the usd to cad daily candle chart merely served to emphasise that the bullish engulfing candle of Tuesday was more than a simple short squeeze and therefore a move we need to consider with some degree of caution particularly for for those of you with open short positions. The high of the day closed well above both the 9 and 14 day moving averages in a move very similar to that of earlier in the month. Indeed the pattern now forming could be considered a double bottom, and therefore a reversal we need to analyse carefully, with the key issues being the 40 day moving average and the 1.11 price handle. The first of these is now on the horizon and naturally and break and hold above this key technical indicator would suggest that the reversal has some momentum. Secondly a breach of the 1.100 price level would again suggest that the move is likely to be sustained and is not simply the market taking a breather after the recent long decline, and with market volumes likely to return to normal following US Labour Day next month, this could be a signal that we are about to see a change in sentiment for the beleaguered US dollar and therefore a reversal in the recent downwards trend.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

With no Canadian news, the main fundamental news on the economic calendar today for the usd to cad was all about the US economy and in particular the Preliminary GDP figures which came in better than expected providing a boost to the US dollar, and a strong move higher for the USD to CAD following a fall earlier in the trading session. The unemployment figures were less welcome coming in worse than expected at 570,000 against a forecast of 562,000, but on balance the recession seems to be coming to the end of the current cycle and we may now be seeing the start of the long slow recovery process long awaited by the markets in general.

Published on Thu, Aug 27 2009, 15:43 GMT

Forex Analysis for Euro vs Dollar

Thu, Aug 27 2009, 14:40 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Yet again, the euro vs dollar attempted to struggle higher during the forex trading session, only to fall back later under the pressure from US Dollar bulls, and closed with a weak looking candle with a narrow down body and deep upper shadow. The high of the day was particularly interesting as this was the fourth consecutive failed attempt to break higher, clearly a sign of weakness in the euro vs dollar daily chart. However before we get too carried away with our technical analysis and assume that the pair are 100% bearish it is interesting to note that the low of the day found support from the 9 day and 14 day moving averages, and therefore any analysis must bear this fact in mind. Like many other markets ate present, one senses that we are now waiting for a return of normal trading volumes and consistent news before the new longer trend for the euro vs dollar is established, and my personal view is that this is unlikely to happen before US Labor day next month. Once this is over then we should see a return to more normal forex trading conditions, and a move away from the consolidation of the last few months as a result.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

The key fundamental news items for today were always going to be the Preliminary GDP and Employment numbers in the US, the first of which provided some good news for the US economy. coming in at -1.0% against a forecast of -1.4%, suggesting that the recession may be finally easing its grip, a huge improvement on last quarter's figure of -6.4%. The employment figures were less welcome with a further 570,000 registering for unemployment insurance against a forecast of 562,000, but on balance probably more good news than bad this afternoon for the US dollar. Over in Europe the fundamental news centred on Germany with the 'all day' release of the CPI numbers from all the German states, which exceed expectation at 0.2% against a forecast of 0.0%.

Published on Thu, Aug 27 2009, 14:40 GMT

Forex Analysis for GBP/USD 27 Aug 2009

Thu, Aug 27 2009, 12:31 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Yesterday's down candle on the daily chart for the pounds to dollars pair, pushed Cable once again closer to the important technical level at the 1.6000 price handle which has really defined the trading level for the forex pair in the last few months. As the markets prepare for Labour Day, the end of the summer holiday period, and the prospect of an increase in trading volumes across all markets once again, this technical price point may once again prove to be pivotal as the fundamental factors combine with the technical picture to produce the medium term price trend. In simple terms, should this level be breached in the next few days or weeks, then this will signal the end to the recent rally, and a possible return of some short term US dollar strength, with the pair falling as a result. However, should this level hold and provide the necessary support, then we may see Cable bounce higher back to retest the 1.70 price region, with a break and hold above signalling further sustained US dollar weakness. Only time will tell and in the short term the outlook is bearish with all three moving averages pointing lower.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

In the UK the Nationwide HIP m/m which came in better than expected at 1.6% and showing that house prices may, once again, be moving upwards. Later we had the Preliminary Business Investment figures which came in far worse than expected at -10.4% against a forecast of -3.6% and reveals the extent to which capital investment by business fell in Q2 and is an indication of the depths to which the UK economy has fallen. As a leading indicator and given the extent of the actual from forecast this may prompt the forex market to sell sterling in the short term. The final item for the UK was the CBI realised sales - a diffusion index based on a survey of retailers and wholesalers which too came in worse than expected at -16 against a forecast of -12, and slightly worse than the previous month. Meanwhile this afternoon sees the Preliminary GDP figures for the US, unemployment claims, Preliminary GDP Price Index & Natural Gas Storage numbers. In addition there is also speech from FOMC Member Lacker. Of this data set it is the first two items which are considered "red flag". Preliminary GDP is forecast at -1.4% - slightly worse than previous and the unemployment claims at 562k, a slight improvement from previous. Given this combination we could have an interesting afternoon trading session with the pounds to dollars pair.

Published on Thu, Aug 27 2009, 12:31 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis for GBP/USD

Wed, Aug 26 2009, 14:41 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Yesterday's candle for the pounds to dollars pair, provided an interesting discussion point for today's forex technical analysis for the pair, as the narrow spread down bar closed the forex trading session well below all three moving averages, and more importantly deep into the support area immediately below, giving the chart a bearish flavour once more. The most important aspect of yesterday's trading was the breach of the 1.6350 support level which until now has provided a strong platform for any re basing. With this level now broken we may finally see a reversal of Cable, and a possible strengthening of the US dollar, with the next critical level being that at 1.60. In many ways this is even more significant and any breach here could signal the end of this long period of sideways consolidation at this trading level, with a much deeper move lower in due course, although it would come as no great surprise to see this level hold once again and propel cable higher once again!

Fundamental Forex Analysis

With no fundamental news for UK sterling on the economic calendar today, all the news is in the US and I have covered all the main items in more detail on the euro vs dollar site for the US market.

Published on Wed, Aug 26 2009, 14:41 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis for USD/CAD

Wed, Aug 26 2009, 13:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

As outlined in yesterday's forex technical analysis for the usd to cad pair, we were expecting a small bounce, and this duly arrived as a relatively wide spread up bar which closed the session with a flat top to the candle, and just below the 9 and 14 day moving averages. Whilst the short squeeze has begun, the reversal may be somewhat limited as prices will need to breach all three moving averages along with some deep pockets of resistance in the 1.10 to 1.16 price band, and whilts yesterday's candle was a bullish engulfing signal, we need to see whether this particular move has any momentum or is simply a short term market correction before moving lower once again. Much of this will of course depend on the US dollar index, which is still looking extremely weak, and likely to collapse lower at any point. My trading suggestion once again for today is to look for small long positions as the squeeze higher continues, and over the coming days wait for any signals that the market is weakening again and looking to turn lower once again.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

The only item of fundamental news in Canada today is the Corporate Profits data, an odd data set which forecasts the profits earned by large corporations in the quarter, and therefore provides an insight into the broader economy. The figure released earlier was -6.4%, an improvement in last quarter's data at -11.8%. All the other items of fundamental forex analysis are in the US, and of particular relevance this afternoon are the oil inventory numbers due shortly which whilst released in the US, have a greater impact on the Canadian dollar, and I have covered all of these in more detail on the euro vs dollar site.

Published on Wed, Aug 26 2009, 13:56 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis for Euro vs Dollar 26 Aug 2009

Wed, Aug 26 2009, 09:29 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Once again the euro vs dollar promised much but delivered little in yesterday's forex analysis, with the threatened breakout in early trading failing to materialise, and the currency pair falling back later in the session to end the day with a weak shooting star candle formation. With a small body and deep upper wick, the candle suggests a bearish tone to today's trading in the euro vs dollar, as the pair once again consolidates in this congested area immediately above all three moving averages. Like many other markets , the currency markets too is suffering from thin trading volumes, lack of any real news, and summer holidays in full swing, are all adding to the sideways movements of which the euro vs dollar is no exception. Until we see a break out above the new resistance level at 1.44, then we can assume that the pair will continue to trade in this range until normal market volumes return in September. The only way to trade at present is on an intra day basis aiming at small profit targets.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

This morning's fundamental news on the economic calendar started early with the release of the German Import prices data which came in worse than expected at -0.9% against a forecast of -0.7%, a relatively minor piece of news, but one which is followed by the more significant German IFO Business Climate data, a number which will certainly have an impact when released. The forecast for today is 89.1 against a previous of 87.3. The IFO data is highly regarded due to it's large sample size and historic correlation with German and wider Eurozone economic conditions, and as a result tends to have a significant impact on the forex market when released, as it generally considered a leading indicator of the economy in Europe. The figures are derived from a survey of about 7,000 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current business conditions and expectations for the next 6 months.

The focus of attention for forex traders then shifts to the US where we have two key numbers this afternoon, namely Core Durable Goods ( and Durable Goods which is less significant) followed 90 minutes later by New Home Sales. The first of these is expected to come in worse than last time at 1.0% against a previous of 1.6%, whilst new home sales are expected to show a modest improvement from 384,000 to 393,000. Both numbers will provide some interesting fundamental forex analysis for forex traders and analysts. Shortly after this we have the Crude Oil Inventories, but as always these will tend to have more of an impact on the Canadian Dollar owing to Canada's pre-eminence in the energy complex, and these numbers will be available on the crude oil trading site soon as they are available. The usd to cad par will no doubt react to these figures on release which are forecast at -2.1M a huge change from last week's -8.4M.

Published on Wed, Aug 26 2009, 09:29 GMT

USD Index

Wed, Aug 26 2009, 09:08 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The USD index continues to look very fragile and yesterday ended the forex trading session today with a small doji cross, indicative of a market that is currently lacking any direction. Unfortunatley the future direction, when it comes, is likely to be downside with all three moving averages adding pressure to the beleagured US dollar. As I have mentioned many times before, only a major change in risk sentiment is likely to provide the boost that the US dollar and the dollar index need in order to break higher from the current downward slide. The key support level is now that at 77.50, and should this be breached in the short term then we may well see a much deeper move for the index which may test the 72 price handle once again. For any sustained break higher we need to see a breach of the strong consolidation now created immediatley above the current price level, and only a hold in the 82.0 region or above would signal the current potential downward slide has been reversed.

Published on Wed, Aug 26 2009, 09:08 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis GBP/USD 25 August 2009

Tue, Aug 25 2009, 08:53 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Listless and lifeless would best describe the pounds to dollars pair at the moment, as thin trading volumes and a lack of meaningful fundamental news combine to create a market lacking in direction or momentum. Friday's candle summed up the mood with a long legged doji, indicating forex market indecision, and yesterday prices eventually drifting lower as a modicum of dollar strength entered the market. Yesterday's candle ended the trading session as a down bar closing just below all three moving averages, stopping at the 1.64 support region. Whether prices can hold at this point and perhaps crawl higher will depend, in part, on whether Sterling has finally shaken off last week's turbulence following the release of the MPC minutes. In addition if significant dollar weakness does return to the market then Sterling may find the impetus it needs to move higher. My trading suggestion for today is to stand aside until we can be sure that the USD1.64 price handle will hold.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

Tuesday's fundamental news on the economic calendar for Cable is all about the UK housing market, with two pieces of news which may provide a better view of the broader UK economy, with the release of the Nationwide HPI data first, followed shortly after by the Mortgage Approvals from the BBA. The HPI data is expected to show a modest decline from last time, whilst the BBA numbers are likely to indicate a small rise. However, neither of these numbers is likely to produce the catalyst required to inject some direction into Cable tomorrow. For the US dollar the main item of news is the CB Consumer Confidence Index which I have covered along with the other main items on the euro vs dollar site.

Published on Tue, Aug 25 2009, 08:53 GMT

Forex Analysis Usd to Cad 24 August 2009

Mon, Aug 24 2009, 22:11 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

The usd to cad continued to move lower in the forex trading session today, but given the lack of fundamental news and thin trading volumes, lacked any conviction in the move, and indeed the market would seem to be 'tired', and lacking momentum. Given that we have now seen five consecutive down days, and coupled with the fact that the move lower ran out of steam at this level last time, it would be no great surprise to see a bounce higher in the next few days from this trading level as the market exerts a short squeeze. This technical view is reinforced by the fact that today's price action has found some support at the 1.078 price level, where the usd to cad pair bounced back in early June. Any crossing of he moving averages in such a bounce would suggest a longer term rally rather than a short term pullback.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

The only fundamental news item tomorrow on the economic calendar for Canada is a speech by Bank of Canada deputy Governor Timothy Lane, who is due to deliver a speech entitled "The Canadian Economy Beyond the Recession" at the Canadian Association for Business Economics, in Kingston. As always his words will be analysed for any clues as to the future policy for interest rates and monetary policy in the next few months from the BOC. The other main news item for the pair is the CB Consumer confidence index, released earlier in the US, and I have covered these and other fundamental news items in more detail on the euro to dollar site.

Published on Mon, Aug 24 2009, 22:11 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis Euro vs Dollar 24 August 2009

Mon, Aug 24 2009, 21:42 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

With very little news around today for either the euro or the US dollar it was no great surprise to see the euro vs dollar drift lower in forex trading today, closing the trading session with a narrow spread down bar, but interestingly one with a gapped up open from the close of Friday. With all three moving averages now firmly below the daily price, the euro vs dollar seems set on making a further attempt to break away from the 1.43 trading level, and breach the previous high of 1.44 where the move stalled last time in earlier in the month. Should we see a break and hold above this level then we can assume that on this occasion it is a true breakout, rather than a fake out as we saw last time, and as as result we should see the euro vs dollar push higher once clear of this heavily congested region. My trading advice for tomorrow is therefore to look for small long positions on an intra day basis with a stop loss set below the support region outline above.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

A busier day for the euro vs dollar for fundamental forex analysis, all of which is covered for you in more detail on the euro to dollar site, with the main item of news on the economic calendar being the CB Consumer numbers due for release in the US tomorrow afternoon - a key figure which will be eagerly awaited by the forex market.

Published on Mon, Aug 24 2009, 21:42 GMT

Fundamental Forex Analysis − EUR/USD

Mon, Aug 24 2009, 18:39 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Fundamental Forex Analysis - Euro Dollar

Tomorrows fundamental news on the economic calendar starts early for Europe with the release of the Final GDP numbers for Germany, always an important set of data, but as these figures have already been released to the market in the Preliminary version ten days earlier, their impact on the market tends to be muted and tomorrow will be no exception - the forecast is for the figures to be the same as last time at 0.3%, and comes on the back of the preliminary numbers which surprised many economists and analysts with a surprising and unexpected growth figure which may have since queried as being correct, so tomorrow should be interesting. The only other item of fundamental news for Europe is released deep in the forex trading session with the NBB Business climate from Belgium, data compiled by the Bank of Belgium, and yet another composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, services and trade related firms. The forecast for tomorrow is for a slight improvement on last month's figures at -19.7 against a previous of -22.8, so again we are limping towards the break even point at zero at which point the indicator suggest market condition are improving. Should the number be better than expected then this could be good news for the Euro.

For the US dollar we have a much busier day than yesterday, with four items of news of which the most important is the CB Consumer Confidence Index, followed by the S & P, the HPI and Richmond Manufacturing Index in order of importance. The CB Consumer confidence is a composite index based on a survey of around 5000 households who are asked to rate current market conditions,including labour availability, business conditions, and the overall economy, and the reason it is so important is that is gives us a snapshot of consumer spending which in turn will indicate any future upturn in the economy. Whilst a positive number tomorrow would normally be good for the US dollar, the reverse has been true in the last few months with bad news triggering the buying of US bonds. The forecast for tomorrow is 48.1 against a previous of 46.6, and will be eagerly awaited by the markets for any fundamental forex analysis of the numbers.

Published on Mon, Aug 24 2009, 18:39 GMT

Forex Analysis for GBP/USD 24 Aug 2009

Mon, Aug 24 2009, 10:34 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Last week's price action on the pounds to dollars pair was indecisive to say the least, and Friday's candle really summed up the week, ending the trading session as a long legged doji sandwiched between all three moving averages. Trying to forecast a direction for the currency pair at present using forex technical analysis is extremely difficult at present, as we have no clear directional signals on the daily chart, and with all three moving averages now tightly bunched, these are also providing little in the way of an meaningful forex trading analysis. With trading volumes likely to remain thin, until the beginning of September we may have to wait a while longer before a meaningful trend is established once again as the forex markets return to some degree of normality.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

There is no fundamental news on the economic calendar tomorrow for either Cable or the US dollar, making trading even more of a lottery in these thin markets. My advice for today is to stay out!

Published on Mon, Aug 24 2009, 10:34 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis USD/JPY

Mon, Aug 24 2009, 10:22 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

The week ended with an interesting candle on the daily chart for the yen to dollar pair, which suggests we may see some trading opportunities on Monday or Tuesday as a result, as the trading session ended on a very long legged doji, but one where the lower shadow was considerably longer than the upper, indicating a degree of bullish sentiment. Following the sharp reversal of the last two weeks, and with a deep lower wick, our forex analysis would point to a rally for the dollar in this pair today, which should give us some intra day long positions, should this signal be confirmed in the short term. However, with the strong resistance still weighing down on the pair, any profits may be short lived as the 95 technical level comes into play once again, so small profit targets are the order of the day. Bear in mind also that the three moving averages are still weighing heavily at present, so small profit targets on intra day trades with tight stop losses are the order of the day.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

As with many other currency pairs, there is no fundamental news for either the yen or the US dollar today, so this combination of thin trading and lack of news could lead to some volatile and unpredictable moves in the forex markets.

Published on Mon, Aug 24 2009, 10:22 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis Usd to Cad 24 Aug 2009

Mon, Aug 24 2009, 10:10 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Friday's wide spread down bar finished off the week for the usd to cad in bearish tone, making this the fourth straight day of losses for the pair. With the US dollar looking weak on the USD index, this momentum seems set to continue this week, with the only technical issue being whether the 1.065 level will be sufficient to halt the progress lower, which at this stage looks increasingly unlikely. Friday's bar also broke and closed below the 14 day moving average adding further weight to out forex analysis for the usd cad pair, and with all three moving averages now adding their own downwards pressure, my trading suggestion for tomorrow is to once again look for small short positions on an intra day basis, and with an initial target in the 1.07 price region. Should we see any resurgence in the US dollar, then there is plenty of strong resistance above to provide a degree of protection from any upward short squeeze.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

Canada provides the only important piece of fundamental news on the economic calendar today with the release of both Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales figures, with the first forecast to be flat at 0.0% and the second at 0.2%. Both these numbers are expected to be worse than last time at 1.2% and 0.7% respectively, and with no news in the US, these figures could provide a degree of movement in the currency pair once the New York forex trading session gets under way.

Published on Mon, Aug 24 2009, 10:10 GMT

Forex Analysis for Euro vs Dollar 24 Aug 2009

Mon, Aug 24 2009, 09:52 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Friday's candle ended the week for the euro vs dollar in a delicate position, having broken above the deep resistance of the last few months, and closing the forex session marginally below the high of the last attempted breakout from this price region. With the open of the day having found support from the 14 day moving average, and with all three moving averages now sitting below the current price, the short term forex analysis for the pair would suggest a move higher in Monday's forex trading session, with the recent consolidation now acting as the springboard. The key to any sustained move higher will be whether the previous top at 1.44 is breached in this move - if so then we could see the start of a sustained move higher, particularly as the US dollar is looking extremely fragile once again on the USD index chart. My only slight concern with Friday's candle is the upper wick which would suggest an element of bearish sentiment in the market, but this may could have been traders squaring positions ahead of the weekend and taking profits off the table. My trading suggestion for Monday is therefore to look for small long positions but with an eye on the 1.44 price handle which may prove to be a barrier to any move higher.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

As with many other currency pairs, there is little fundamental news on the economic calendar with only one item in Europe and none in the US. The European focus will be on Industrial New Orders which are forecast to show an improvement over last months figures at 1.7%, against a previous of -0.2% which will be good news for Europe should this forecast be correct.

Published on Mon, Aug 24 2009, 09:52 GMT

Forex Analysis USD Index

Mon, Aug 24 2009, 08:17 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The USD index ended the forex trading week with a mixture of good and bad news for the US dollar, which was represented from a technical forex analysis perspective with a wide spread down bar, but one with a deep lower wick. The negative side of Friday's trading session for the USD index was of course the fact that we have now broken below all three moving averages once again, suggesting an imminent move lower for the US dollar once again. However, the positive side to Friday's trading was the depth of the lower wick, which suggests that there was a degree of dollar buying in the market, no doubt triggered by the fall earlier in the trading session. Overall, the technical picture looks very weak for the dollar, and should we see a break below the 77.50 price handle, then this could signal a much deeper move, initially to re-test the interim support at the 76 price point, and should this fail, then the 72 price handle becomes a distinct possibility. At present there is nothing on the daily or weekly chart for the USD index, to suggest that this long slow decline is likely to change in the short term, with the weekly chart looking very bearish following a three candle pattern of an up bar, doji, and down bar, with all three moving averages weighing down once again. With extremely strong resistance now in place at the 79 to 81 price range, for any strong reversal we will need to see a break and hold above this technical level for any move higher to be sustained.

Published on Mon, Aug 24 2009, 08:17 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis for USD/CAD

Fri, Aug 21 2009, 07:46 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Yesterday's price action on the usd to cad was a replay of the previous day in which the candle of the day ended the session as a down bar, albeit with a slightly shorter upper wick and the body sandwiched neatly between the 9 and 14 day moving averages. The open of the day found significant resistance from the 9 day moving average which it only breached momentarily before falling to close the session and conversely finding some minimal support from the 14 day moving aver. This bearish sentiment towards the US Dollar appears to show little sign of abating, a sentiment which has carried over into overnight trading in Asia where the Shanghai Composite appears to have shaken off its earlier jitters and followed Wall Street higher. Last night's late surge on Wall Street took the S&P back over the 1000 price handle as investors latched onto a much better than expected Philly Fed Release of 4.2 against a forecast of -1.9 while choosing to ignore the worse than expected unemployment claims. If traders and investors maintain or even increase their appetite for risk then there is no reason to suppose that the usd to cad will be looking to re-test the USD1.08 price point sooner rather than later. The outlook for today's forex trading on the usd to cad looks bearish once again, particularly as the overnight price action has round resistance at the 9 day moving average once again so my trading suggestion today is to continue to look for small short positions on an intra basis but bearing in mind that there is support line in place at the USD1.076 price level which may halt temporarily any further falls. Should this be breached we will no doubt see a re-test of the USD1.065 level where the rally stalled in early August.

Forex Fundamental Analysis

With no fundamental news on the economic calendar for Canada today and only the Existing Homes Sales for the US which are expected to post a figure of 5.03m - an improvement since last month, the markets will be focused on the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium - the annual meeting of the world's central bankers and a speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke entitled "Reflections on a Year of Crisis". On Saturday Bank of Canada Mark Carney is also expected to deliver a speech at the Symposium and it is likely that his words will impact the usd to cad when the forex markets open once again for trading on Sunday.

Published on Fri, Aug 21 2009, 07:46 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis

Thu, Aug 20 2009, 21:57 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Today's forex analysis for the euro vs dollar pair is limited to say the least since the trading session comprised of a lacklustre move in a very tight range with the open and close of the trading session being virtually identical and once again failing to breach the USD1.43 price level which continues to present a barrier to any move higher. The only significant aspect of today's trading appeared to be the 14 day moving which also seemed to prevent a further rise in the Euro. Technically the pair are once again balanced in a delicate position on the forex chart as we wait for a sustained breakout (or fakeout) to confirm any further upward move or alternatively a retreat from the current level as we fail at the USD1.43 level once again. Given the series of higher lows outlined in yesterday's forex market analysis it would be no surprise to see this level breached in the next few days, but with Friday now ahead and the annual central bankers jolly in Jackson Hole the markets are now waiting expectantly for some definitive fundamental news. However, we may see a degree of price activity tomorrow morning following a flurry of economic releases for the Eurozone.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

Items of fundamental news on the economic calendar for the Euro kicks off with French Flash Manufacturing/Services PMI data which are expected to come in better than the last time with the former forecast at 49.1 and the latter at 46.6 both edging towards the magic number 50 which indicates an economy in expansion. This is followed shortly after by the German equivalent which are expected to show a similar trend of gradual improvement with the former forecast at 47.1 and the latter at 48.8. Finally to complete this clutch of data we have the equivalent numbers for the Eurozone as a whole and here too the numbers are 47.8 and 46.6 respectively. Meanwhile in the US we have one item of news and one speech, the former being Existing Home Sales which are forecast to show a slight improvement from last time at 5.03m against a previous of 4.89m. Finally to round off the week we have a speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who is delivery a talk appropriately entitled "Reflections on a Year of Crisis" (unless of course you happen to be Goldman Sach - or as they are now affectionately known Goldman Squid!!).

Published on Thu, Aug 20 2009, 21:57 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis for GBP/USD

Thu, Aug 20 2009, 08:16 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Yesterday's forex trading pattern for the pounds to dollars pair was dominated by the voting decisions of the MPC which, contrary to expectation (mine included) included the revelation that Mervyn King, the Bank's Governor, was among a minority of three MPC members who had voted to increase the Bank's asset purchases by £75bn - a much larger number than anticipated. Of itself this is not unusual as the Governor has found himself in a minority on previous occasions, but what is troubling the markets is the extent of the QE programme and the fear that the Bank does not have a clear exit strategy, cannot agree what this should and is having difficulty communicating anything to the wider markets. Despite this set back the pair did bounce back as equity markets held firm and the dollar came under selling pressure from the better than expected crude oil inventory data. Technically yesterday's trading session ended with a narrow spread candle but with a deep lower wick which suggests that Sterling bulls are still very much in the market, with the close of the day finding support from the 9 day moving. Given the depth of the lower shadow it will come as no great surprise to see Sterling make a further attempt to breach the USD1.66 level today which could signal a further attempt at a break out from the current narrow trading range. My forex trading suggestion for this pair is to look for small long positions on an intra day basis but with an eye to the USD1.66 level which may offer a degree of resistance to any move higher.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

There are three items of fundamental news on the economic calendar for the UK this morning, the first of which is the most important, being retail sales which are forecast to come in at 0.3% against a previous of 1.2% and would suggest that consumer spending is falling once again. The second item of news, released at the same time, is the Public Sector Net Borrowing which is expected to come in at 0.3bn against a previous of 13bn with some analysts suggesting that in July the UK had a deficit not seen since 1996. Finally we have the preliminary M4 Money Supply which is forecast at 0.2% against a previous of -0.2% which if correct would suggest that there is more money in the system. Meanwhile in the US forex traders can look forward to the unemployment claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the CBI Index this afternoon and should these exceed expectations then this may tempt traders and investors into riskier assets thereby causing yet more pain for the US Dollar.

Published on Thu, Aug 20 2009, 08:16 GMT

Charting Analysis − Euro vs Dollar

Thu, Aug 20 2009, 08:11 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Yesterday's early price action on the euro vs dollar pair was dominated by a further 4.3% fall in the Shanghai Composite, just two days after a 5.8% decline, leaving the Index 19.8% down from its 2009 high, achieved on 4th August - theoretically marking the start of a bear rally. However, Europe and Wall Street managed to hold firm and once the crude oil inventory figures had been released causing oil prices to race above the $72 per barrel price point, equities regained their poise along with the Euro. The euro vs dollar forex trading session ended the day on a relatively wide spread up bar but with a deep lower wick. Interestingly the trend of higher lows continued yesterday as we suggested it might, with the low of the day finding support yet again from the 40 day moving average as the Eurodollar once again attempts to push through the USD1.43 price handle. The close of the session ended marginally below the 14 day moving average which seemed to offer a minor level of resistance. The key for today's technical forex trading will be whether the USD1.43 level can be breached and, if so, then we may well see a further attempt to break out from this range in the medium term. My trading suggestion for today given the depth of the lower shadow to yesterday's candle is to attempt small longs using tight stops on an intra day basis but with caution given the USD1.43 resistance level which is now very close at hand.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

With no fundamental news on the economic calendar for Europe, forex market traders will be concentrating on the unemployment claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the CBI Index due out later today. Should these exceed expectations then this may tempt traders and investors into riskier assets thereby causing yet more pain for the US Dollar.

Published on Thu, Aug 20 2009, 08:11 GMT

Forex Chart Analysis USD/CAD

Wed, Aug 19 2009, 22:29 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

The forex chart analysis for the usd to cad is particularly interesting today as it reinforces the bearish picture outlined in yesterday's market commentary. The candle for the day ended the forex trading session with a deep upper wick and narrow body reminiscent of a shooting star, and where the high of the day once again found strong resistance from the 40 day moving average which added pressure the downward move. Given that this has occurred on the last three consecutive trading days it seems likely that we will see a continuation of the bearish sentiment in trading tomorrow as the recent upwards rally runs out of steam once again. The only caveat to this forex technical analysis would be that the low of the session seems to find some support from the 9 day moving average so we need to bear this in mind in tomorrow' s forex trading session for the pair. My trading suggestion is therefore to look for small short positions on an intra day basis using the 30 minute chart with tight stops.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

The only fundamental news item on the economic calendar for Canada tomorrow are the Wholesale Sales Figures which represents the change in the total value of sales at the wholesale level and are forecast at 0% against -0.3% last time. Meanwhile in the US we have the weekly unemployment claims which are forecast at 548k, marginally better than last week's 558k, followed by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index which is expected to come in at -1.9 against a previous of -7.5. An improving picture for the economy and one where the index is beginning to approach the tipping point of zero which suggests improving market conditions. Forex traders pay close attention to this particular index as it is generally considered one of the more important diffusion indices and is perceived as a leading indicator of the broader economy. We also have the CB Leading Index, of lesser importance and expected to come in at 0.6% against a previous of 0.7%, a marginal improvement.

Published on Wed, Aug 19 2009, 22:29 GMT

Forex Analysis for USD Index

Wed, Aug 19 2009, 22:05 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Once again on the daily USD Index Chart today's candle found strong resistance from the 40 day moving average which prevented any attempt by the Index to rise and closed the trading session with another dismal day for the poor old US Dollar whose only hope for redemption now seems to rest with the 77.50 minor support level. With today's prices having breached both the 9 and 14 day moving averages we are now now below all three which does not bode well for dollar bulls in the short term. As I have said many times in previous market commentaries, until we see a break and hold above the 81 price point then the systemic Dollar weakness seems likely to continue for the foreseeable future and certainly from a technical perspective there are no chart signals to suggest that this is going to happen any time soon.

Published on Wed, Aug 19 2009, 22:05 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis for USD/JPY

Tue, Aug 18 2009, 22:32 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Today's candle on the dollar to yen forex chart ended a typically choppy forex trading session with a narrow spread up bar with a deep upper shadow to the small body suggesting that we may well see a fall in the dollar yen tomorrow as a result. This bearish technical picture is further confirmed, firstly by the fact that prices are now firmly below all three moving averages and, secondly that today's price action failed to hold above either the 14 day or the 40 day moving average. In addition the closing price is now firmly below the strong resistance in the 94.70 to 95.80 region which should provide a good barrier to any attempt to move higher and therefore my trading suggestion for tomorrow is to attempt small shorts on an intra day basis using tight stop losses to protect against any sudden reversals. This forex pair is notoriously difficult to trade at present and therefore any opportunities should be seen as short term scalping only.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

There are only very minor items of forex fundamental news on the economic calendar for either currency which could lead to a degree of volatility as forex traders look for direction elsewhere and, in particular from the equity markets. For Japan we have the All Industries Activity which measures the change in total value of goods and services purchased by business and this is expected to come in 0.4% against a previous of 0.7%. Meanwhile in the US we only have the crude oil inventories which will probably come in relatively bearish and once again be ignored by the rest of the markets.

Published on Tue, Aug 18 2009, 22:32 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis for GBP/USD

Tue, Aug 18 2009, 22:16 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Unlike its cousin the Euro, the British Pound bounced back in style today ending the forex trading session with a wide spread up bar which could loosely be described as bullish engulfing, although I hesitate to use the term given the last three months of interminable sideways grind. In addition Sterling has today steadfastly refused to accept its fate as decreed by the BOE and dared to rise. However, it is interesting to note that the high of the day found resistance on the 9 day moving average which although not deeply significant may be a pointer that perhaps this reversal is really only a short term squeeze and normal service will be resumed in due course as the forex market sells the British Pound once again. However, should the USD1.66 price handle be breached, then once again we will need to consider our options carefully and to think whether this is likely to be yet another fake out or the start of a true breakout. The USD Index would suggest that the latter may be possible as it is once again looking particularly fragile and looks set to fall so Cable may well benefit as a result.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

The important fundamental news items on the economic calendar for the UK Pound are firstly the release of the MPC minutes should give the forex market few surprises with a 0-0-9 voting split at the recent rate decision meeting. This is followed shortly after by the CBI Industrial orders expectations which are forecast at -50 against a previous of -59, a long way from the par level which indicates an economy in expansion. You can find a fuller explanation on my euros to pounds pair site. Meanwhile in the US the only item of fundamental news will be the crude oil inventory figures which although are likely to come in bearish once again, will probably be ignored by the markets.

Published on Tue, Aug 18 2009, 22:16 GMT

Forex Analysis Euro vs Dollar

Tue, Aug 18 2009, 22:01 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

An interesting trading session for the euro vs dollar pair which ended the day with a narrow spread doji candle which once again perched neatly on the 40 day moving average, suggesting that the pair may have found some support at the USD1.41 price handle. With the doji indicating market indecision and the depth of Monday's wick to the downside, it would not be unreasonable to expect a small move higher in tomorrow's trading session, particularly as we seem to be experiencing a series of higher lows of which this could be fourth in a series going back as far as early June. Whilst this is hardly a strong trading recommendation it may provide some opportunities for short term intra day scalping to the long side, whilst longer term position traders will have to wait for a sustained break either to the upside or the downside when the current trading range is finally broken.

Forex Fundamental Analysis

With only German PPI and the Current Account due for release early tomorrow morning and crude oil inventories in the US later in the day trading in the euro vs dollar is likely to be dictated by equity markets and investor appetite for risk.

Published on Tue, Aug 18 2009, 22:01 GMT

Forex Analysis − USD to CAD

Tue, Aug 18 2009, 21:42 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Today's forex analysis for the usd to cad pair starts with the candle which replicated that of Monday in that it ended the trading session on a narrow spread body but with a deep upper wick, the only difference between the two that one was an up bar and the other a down bar. The common feature of both candles is that the upper shadow represents weakness in the move, and in addition the highs of each day failed to breach the 40 day moving average which now seems to be providing a barrier to any further move higher. Given the relatively weak technical analysis on the daily chart my trading suggestion for tomorrow is to look for small shorts using the 30 min chart for suitable entry and exit points. However, trading this pair may be complicated by the raft of fundamental forex news which is detailed below.

Forex Fundamental Analysis

The first major piece of fundamental news on the economic calendar for the Loonie is Core CPI which is forecast at 0.1% against a previous of 0%. Core CPI measures the change in the price of goods and services but excludes the 8 most volatile items as they tend to distort the underlying trend. The reason this data is important to us as forex traders is that the Bank of Canada considers this a key component of their decision making process for interest rates. The CPI numbers are released at the same time and these are forecast at -0.2% against a previous of -0.3%. Finally in Canada we have the Leading Index, a less significant data set, which is based on a composite index of 10 indicators and designed to predict the direction of the economy. However, the effect on the forex market is relatively muted as all the indicators have generally been digested in previous announcements.

Meantime in the US the only item of significance is the Crude Oil Inventories which tends to have more of an impact on the more risk senstive currencies such as the Euro as well as the CommDollars.

Published on Tue, Aug 18 2009, 21:42 GMT

USD Index

Tue, Aug 18 2009, 21:29 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

As outlined in yesterday's commentary the USD Index can best be described as "feeble", with Monday's candle signalling yet further weakness with the deep upper wick, which duly arrived today in the form of a narrow spread down bar. It is interesting to note that on both days the Index struggled to breach both the 40 day moving average but, perhaps more importantly, to make any inroads into the strong resistance immediately ahead at 79.50. Until this log-jam is broken and the USD Index manages to hold above this level then any resurgence in the US will be relatively short lived.

Published on Tue, Aug 18 2009, 21:29 GMT

USD Index

Tue, Aug 18 2009, 08:26 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's gapped up opening in the USD Index provided further encouragement to dollar bulls, but they have an awfully long way to travel before we can even begin to suggest there has been a sea change in sentiment towards the US Dollar. This is despite a 6% fall in the Shanghai Composite and almost a 2.5% fall in the S&P500. In addition the Baltic Dry Index recently posted the biggest fall since the start of the financial crisis falling 17% during the first week of August. This index is generally viewed as a leading indicator, in particular for commodity prices, and therefore a broad measure of global economic demand which in turn impacts on consumer prices and therefore inflation - which should all be pointing to a much stronger US Dollar. Although technically yesterday's up bar ended the session on a positive note, but worringly the index found resistance at two levels. Firstly the 40 day moving average seemed to provide a barrier to any move higher and secondly the strong resistance immediately ahead in the 79.50 - 81.0 band also came into play. For any sustained move higher by the index we need to see a breach of this range with a break and hold above the 81.50 price handle coupled with support from all three moving averages. In the short term it is interesting to note that the 9 day moving average has now crossed the 14 day moving average giving us a bullish signal, but the fact remains that the consolidation resistance outlined above must be conquered with force and momentum before any sustained move higher can be established in the medium term.

Published on Tue, Aug 18 2009, 08:26 GMT

Forex Chart Analysis − Pound vs Dollar

Tue, Aug 18 2009, 07:37 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

The pounds to dollars pair continues to mirror the Eurodollar, both of which promised much with the recent breakout from their respective trading ranges only to fail to deliver and promptly reverse. Yesterday's widespread down bar brought the pounds to dollars pair firmly back into the trading range between USD1.60 and USD1.66 and with the 9 day now crossing the 14 day moving average this too is adding to the bearish sentiment. It is interesting to note that yesterday's opening price was gapped down from Friday's close adding further weight to this technical picture. The extent of this current reversal for the British Pound will depend on a number of factors, including whether equity markets and commodities continue to tumble and forex traders continue to take a dim view of the BOE's recent decision to expand its QE strategy.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

The fundamental news on the economic calendar for Sterling today centres around the CPI data which is considered by many forex traders as the most important piece of inflation data since it is used by the Bank of England to gauge inflation or deflation in the broader economy. The forecast for this morning's number is 1.5%, against a previous of 1.8% representing a further fall to its lowest level in almost 5 years as declines in food prices combined with aggressive summer sales push the number further below the Bank's target. At the same time we have the RPI numbers and Core CPI numbers with the first of these expected to come in at -1.7% against a previous of -1.6% and the Core CPI to come in 1.5% against a previous of 1.6%. Should these numbers come in on target or below expectation then there is little immediate prospect of a rise in interest rates and we could therefore see Sterling come under pressure in this morning's forex trading session. Meanwhile in the US forex traders will be watching the PPI for any signs of deflation as well as a clutch of housing data which includes Building Permits (the most significant number this afternoon) to see if the US Housing Market has indeed bottomed. All of these are covered in more detail on the usd to cad site.

Published on Tue, Aug 18 2009, 07:37 GMT

Forex Analysis − USD to CAD

Tue, Aug 18 2009, 07:09 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis

Yesterday's rally in the dollar cad pair was somewhat muted given the sharp sell off in equities and commodities as the session ended on narrow spread up bar with a deep upper wick suggesting a move that lacks conviction, a view reinforced by the fact that the high of the day failed to breach the 40 moving average which seems to be adding some downwards pressure at present. It is also interesting to note that the prices today failed to clear the minor support level at USD1.115 which remains intact at present and any sustained move higher will need to breach this level as well as cross the 40 day moving average.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

The only item of fundamental news on the economic calendar today for Canada is the Foreign Securities data which is forecast at 13.55bn, a figure that has been rising, month on month and if, once again, this number comes in better than expected should boost the Loonie. Meanwhile in the US we have Building Permits, PPI, Core PPI and Housing Starts and of these the two most interesting are the PPI which is expected to post a negative number at -0.2% indicating that deflation is still posing a risk, and Building Permits which the markets will be scrutinizing to see if the housing market has indeed reached a bottom. In contrast to the PPI data both Building Permits and Housing Starts are expected to show a very small improvement over last time with Building Permits rising from 0.57m to 0.58m and Housing Starts from 0.58m to 0.60m. However, forex traders may focus on whether the PPI does indeed come in at a negative number as this would signal a postponement of any rise in interest rates which would be bad news for the US Dollar.

Published on Tue, Aug 18 2009, 07:09 GMT

Forex Analysis for Euro vs Dollar

Tue, Aug 18 2009, 06:19 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Forex Technical Analysis for the Euro vs Dollar

Yesterday's relatively wide spread down bar on the euro vs dollar chart was significant for two reasons: firstly prices opened gapped down from Friday's close suggesting that the bearish sentiment which is currently evident may have some impetus. Secondly prices closed below the 40 day moving average which would tend to reinforce this view. However, this analysis has to be counterbalanced against the performance the equity markets which although have seen dramatic falls in China and an almost 2.5% fall in the S&P500 has not really translated as strongly as we would have expected into dollar strength but appears simply to expanded the euro vs dollar trading range to between USD1.38 and USD1.43. Whilst this expanded range will provide trading opportunities for swing traders and scalpers, longer term position trading may prove difficult and may have to wait until there is a clear and sustained breakout either side of the current range.

Fundamental News for the Euro vs Dollar

Although there is a detailed analysis of the fundamental news for this pair on the main euro to dollar site today traders should focus on the German ZEW Sentiment Index, a diffusion index based on a survey of German institutional investors and analysts. In fact the survey asks around 350 German institutional investors and analysts to rate a 6 month eonomic outlook for Germany. It is considered a leading indicator of economic health as the participants are considered highly qualified by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity. If the actual is better than forecast then we can expect the Euro to benefit accordingly.

My trading suggestion for today is to wait for the release of the German ZEW and if, as expected, it comes in better than expected to look to profit from an upturn in the Euro.

Published on Tue, Aug 18 2009, 06:19 GMT

Fundamental Forex Analysis for Euro to Dollar 17 August 2009

Mon, Aug 17 2009, 13:48 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Fundamental forex analysis for the euro to dollar pair today is restricted to a very small number of news items as all markets are continuing to respond to last week's sharp sell off in equities as traders and investors once again shy away from riskier assets. The only item of news for Europe was this morning's Trade Balance figure which despite missing the target forecast by 0.4bn has confirmed that the Eurozone seems to be showing further signs of coming out of this current recession. Meanwhile in the US the Empire State Manufacturing Index has posted an extraordinary 12.1 against a forecast of 3.1, rising from a negative -0.6 in July. It is the first positive reading since April 2008 and the highest since November 2007. Any reading over zero signifies that firms consider business to be improving compared with the previous month. The two key components of the index - new orders and shipments - rose to their highest levels in more than a year. The other key item of fundamental news for the US Dollar has been the TIC data which has posted the extraordinary figure of 90.7bn against a forecast of 17.7bn, having risen phoenix like from a -19.8bn in July. TIC measures the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period and if the actual is better than forecast then this should be good for the US Dollar. The last item of data for the US will be the NAHB Housing Market Index - a diffusion index based on a survey of about 900 home builders which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The forecast number is 18 and the market will be looking to see if the housing market has finally bottomed out and whether the index is finally clawing its way back towards 50, the point at which the housing market is considered positive.

Published on Mon, Aug 17 2009, 13:48 GMT

Binary Betting Trading Aussie Dollar

Mon, Aug 17 2009, 09:22 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

It's been a very poor start to the trading week, with the FTSE, CAC and DAX all down around 1% in early trading. Asian markets endured a torrid session with Japanese companies such as Sony falling around 3%. The 'Goldman Sachs' rally that started in July is starting to run out of steam as the bulls appear to have run out of positive catalysts to keep momentum pushing higher.It will be a crucial week for those who see the economic glass half full. If markets can at least hold around these levels without too much significant damage being done, the binary bet bulls could come back refreshed and take markets even higher.Not much on the economic news front today, with US TIC long term purchases the only significant announcement due at 13.00 GMT today.

Forex markets are mirroring the stock market flight away from risk. The dollar and yen appear to be winning the least ugly contest at the moment with the pound in particular falling out of favour. The pound is down 0.5% against the euro, 1% against the dollar and 1.33% against the yen. The commodity currencies including the Canadian dollar and the Aussie dollar are also being punished after oil prices fell heavily on Friday, with prices falling again already today. It's been a swift, sharp rally for oil and the commodity currencies and any pull back could be equally swift on the AUD/USD. My binary betting trading tip for today is therefore a three day trade predicting that the AUD/USD will hit 0.8000 in the next three days, and if this is correct could return a healthy 500%!!

Published on Mon, Aug 17 2009, 09:22 GMT

Forex Trading Analysis − Pounds To Dollars

Fri, Aug 14 2009, 14:19 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Daily forex analysis for the pounds to dollars pair is at an interesting stage as Sterling continues to claw its way back following last week's sharp reversal and much like the euro vs dollar we now need to decide whether any break above the 1.67 price level is meaningful or is simply a "fake out" as we saw last time. With all three moving averages now beginning to bunch once again and with prices constrained between the 14 day and the 40 day moving average there is little meaningful forex technical analysis in the daily chart. The weekly chart, however, paints a slightly different picture in that last week's shooting star candle still remains prominently positioned above the sideways consolidation of the last few months. This week's trading has failed to confirm this signal as yet, although the conclusion of the week may end with a "hanging man" signal which would confirm, to some extent, the current bearish picture. However, for a sustained move lower we would need to see a break and hold below the 1.60 level coupled with a breach of the 9 and 14 day moving averages. The fundamental forex analysis for this pair is focused solely in the US where Core CPI and CPI figures have just been released and have come in bang on target at 0.1% and 0% respectively. The final piece of fundamental news on the economic calendar for the week is the UOM - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment which is forecast at 69.1 - happy spending days are here again. Have a great weekend!

Published on Fri, Aug 14 2009, 14:19 GMT

Forex Analysis − Euro vs Dollar

Fri, Aug 14 2009, 13:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's forex chart analysis for the euro vs dollar pair indicated once again that the Euro is refusing to fall as evidenced by Wednesday's which found support from the 40 day moving average followed by Thursday's candle which edged towards the 9 day moving average, but eventually closed marginally below. The recent resurgence of the Euro is as much to do with renewed risk appetite which has seen a variety of commodities rise and strong equity markets. The Euro has been further boosted by some tentative signs that both Germany and France may be on the point of emerging from this currency economic slump. From the forex technical analysis, we are once again approaching the pivotal 1.43 price level which saw the original breakout but which promptly reversed and any renewed attempt has to be seen in this context. Clearly any break above this level will now need to clear the additional additional in the 1.40 price band which was created as a result of this failure and it will be interesting to see whether this occur in the medium term. Should generalised Dollar weakness persist as risk appetite increases then we may see this sooner rather than later.

Published on Fri, Aug 14 2009, 13:56 GMT

Fundamental Forex Analysis − EURUSD

Fri, Aug 14 2009, 12:20 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The fundamental forex analysis for the euro to dollar currency pair kicked off this morning with the French Preliminary Non Farm Payroll data which came in better than expected at -0.5% against a forecast of -0.7% - naturally not as important as the US Non Farm Payroll but nevertheless an indication that things may be improving in Europe. This was followed by the more significant CPI, and Core CPI Data for the whole of Europe both of which came in worse than expected at -0.7% and 1.3% respectively, highlighting the tension within the Eurozone with France and Germany now seeming to pull away from the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain). Meanwhile the US equivalent is due out later this afternoon where the consensus is for 0.1% for Core CPI and a flat 0% for CPI. This data set is important as it measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers but excludes food and energy. As currency traders because consumer prices have a major impact on inflation (or deflation) they are crucial for any fundamental forex analysis as they can indicate the future direction of a particular currency. If the US figures come in better than expected then this should be favourable to the US Dollar - however, given its recent performance the forex market may simply ignore this fact and continue selling the greenback.

Published on Fri, Aug 14 2009, 12:20 GMT

USD index

Thu, Aug 13 2009, 12:27 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The USD Index responded accordingly to yesterday's FED dovish statement in which the Committee decided to keep interest rates on hold (no great surprise), keep their options open with regard to further bond buying (ie Quantitative Easing) and only deviated by 10 words from last month's statement. Those 10 words included the view that the current recession/depression was "levelling out". On the USD chart last night's news triggered a move lower as investors rushed back into riskier assets, such as equities and commodities, ending the currency trading session with a narrow spread down bar but with a deep upper shadow. Worryingly for USD bulls the high of the forex trading session found resistance at the 40 day moving average which is now weighing heavily once again. In addition we now have a bearish 3 candle pattern of an up bar, spinning top and down bar, all suggesting that the short term rally for the USD is now over, and should we see prices break and hold below the 9 and 14 day moving averages then this view will be confirmed on the usd index chart.

Published on Thu, Aug 13 2009, 12:27 GMT

Pound vs Dollar − Daily Candle Chart

Wed, Aug 12 2009, 12:01 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Following the last three days of sharp falls on the pounds to dollars daily chart the currency pair took a breather yesterday ending the trading session with a tiny spinning top ahead of the two day FOMC meeting which is due to conclude later today. The pound dollar pair is now perched precariously on the 40 day moving average which is almost acting as a tightrope, and in addition the support platform at this level is now fully in play. Whilst these factors will dictate the technical picture the fundamental news on the economic calendar from the FED tonight is far more powerful and likely to produce a volatile reaction in Cable as soon as the statement hits the news wires and is digested by the broader markets. Should the FED hint at interest rate rises sooner rather than later, then this could trigger a boost in the US Dollar with a consequent fall in the pound dollar pair. The reason for this is that this would signal the start of improving yields for what is currently a low yielding currency. The congestion in the USD1.64-USD1.60 price band is now key, and should this be breached then this could be the start of a longer term bearish reversal from the highs of the last few weeks. The fundamental news today for the UK has been dominated by two items, the first of which was unemployment which rose once again to 7.8% (exceeding the forecast of 7.7%) and taking the jobless figures to a 12 year high of 2.4m. The other item was a speech by BOE Governor Mervyn King in which he confirmed that inflation would miss its 2% target as the economy endures a very slow recovery.

Published on Wed, Aug 12 2009, 12:01 GMT

Euro vs Dollar − Daily Chart

Wed, Aug 12 2009, 11:32 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Following the recent "waterfall" in the euro vs dollar yesterday's price action came as no great surprise as the currency pair attempted to re-base around the 1.41 price point ahead of the FOMC meeting which is due to complete later today. The low of both Monday and Tuesday seemed to find some support from the 40 day moving average, and indeed this has been replicated during this morning's London trading session where the low has once again bounced off the 40 day moving average. This would tend to suggest that there is some support at this level. however whether it is likely to hold is anyone's guess and the medium term direction for the Eurodollar (as for many other pairs) will be driven by the market's reaction to the FED statement. Should the Committee indicate that interest rates may have to rise in the short to medium term this could convert into further Dollar strength as the currency markets react positively to an improvement in the dollar yield. If this creates a strong bullish move in the dollar then any break below the 1.38 region could herald the start of a longer term decline for the Euro moving into Q3.

Published on Wed, Aug 12 2009, 11:32 GMT

Euro to Dollar − Fundamental News

Wed, Aug 12 2009, 11:12 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Today's fundamental on the economical calendar is dominated by the FOMC interest rate decision and accompanying statement which is due out at 19.15 GMT. Before this momentous event we have a number of other interesting news items which began earlier this morning with the French CPI data which came in at the forecast of -0.4%. This was followed by worse than expected news for Europe's Industrial Production figures which came in at -0.6% against a forecast of +0.3% - not good news for the Eurozone. However, this indicator tends to have a relatively mild impact on the currency markets as Germany and France release their data separately, as they account for approximately 50% of the total Eurozone economy. The other significant item of news in the US ahead of the FED statement will be the Trade Balance Figures which are forecast at -28.4bn versus a previous of -26bn with the deficit probably widening yet again as a result of the recent rise in crude oil prices. Later in the session we have the crude oil inventories, details of which I have covered in the my specialist oil blog.

Published on Wed, Aug 12 2009, 11:12 GMT

Euro vs Dollar − Daily Candle Chart

Tue, Aug 11 2009, 13:09 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The current sea change of sentiment towards the US Dollar has resulted in a huge shakeout in the euro vs dollar pair. Whether this is a temporary reversal or the start of a renewed love affair with the greenback still remains to be seen and perhaps we may have a clue once this week's FOMC meeting is concluded. Should the Committee decide to signal the possibility of higher interest rates then this could be seen as Dollar positive and speed up the current decline in the Euro still further. From a technical perspective yesterday's down bar merely added further downwards pressure on the Eurodollar pair as it pushed ever deeper into the strong support between the USD1.375 and USD1.425 price band, closing just above the 40 day moving average. Any dollar positive news from the FED could create another wide spread down bar on Wednesday/Thursday which may provide sufficient momentum to break below the bottom of this channel. Should this occur then this may well signal the end of the current rally for the Euro and a prolonged period of Euro weakness and Dollar strength.

Published on Tue, Aug 11 2009, 13:09 GMT

US Dollar Index − Daily Chart

Tue, Aug 11 2009, 12:52 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

As market sentiment towards the US Dollar appears to have turned more bullish it is a good time to re-visit the Dollar Index where this newly found optimism is clearly demonstrated on the daily Dollar Index chart. Yesterday's narrow spread up bar continued the positive mood but was somewhat muted after Friday's strong surge which broke back above the 9 and 14 day moving averages. The next two days will prove to be pivotal for the US Dollar with the fundamental picture largely dictating whether we see a breach of the strong resistance now directly ahead, or alternatively whether a further collapse will ensue. The reason, of course, is the two day FOMC meeting which gets underway later this morning in the US, and despite what technical traders may wish to believe the subsequent statement and interest rate decision will be all enveloping. Should the Committee indicate that the worst of the recession is behind us and hint at any raising of rates in due course, then this will be seen as a positive for the US Dollar and an opportunity to buy what, up until now, has been a lower yielding currency. If this occurs then we will see a surge of Dollars buyers and a consequent break above the resistance level outlined above which should then provide a good technical platform for a strong move higher.

Published on Tue, Aug 11 2009, 12:52 GMT

Euro Dollar Fundamental News

Tue, Aug 11 2009, 12:37 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Although the markets are focused on the two day FOMC meeting which starts later today there are a number of fundamental news items on the economic calendar for both the Euro and the US Dollar which are worth mentioning. The day started with the German final Consumer Price Index numbers which although came in marginally ahead of target at 0% against a forecast of -0.1%, it was the WPI (Wholesale Price Index) numbers released at the same time which have shocked the market. As a leading indicator of consumer inflation the WPI measures the change in the price of goods sold by wholesalers and by coming in at -0.5% against a forecast of 0.1% reveals that the spectre of deflation still stalks the Eurozone. This fall is the first in 22 years and comes during the worst recession since WWII which has all but strangled consumer spending. Meanwhile in France the French Government Balance posted a figure of -86.6bn against a previous of -88.7bn, a marginal improvement. This number represents the difference in value between central government income and spending for the year to date.

In the US the preliminary Non Farm Productivity figures are due shortly and are expected to show that productivity has most likely risen strongly in the last quarter. This is coupled with the Preliminary Unit Labour Costs which are the annualized change in the price of businesses pay for labour, excluding the farming industry. Both the above items have now been released and have actually come in worse than expected - so much for the experts!! The day rounds off in the US with yet another diffusion index with the catchy title of the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism forecast today at 47.4, a marginal improvement over last month's 46.3 - the closer to 50 & above the better.

Published on Tue, Aug 11 2009, 12:37 GMT

USD to CAD − Daily Chart

Mon, Aug 10 2009, 14:52 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Friday' candle on the usd to cad daily chart, made a brave attempt to struggle higher once again, and to try to continue the short term reversal which was signalled on Tuesday with the gravestone doji candle. With such deep resistance ahead, this seems unlikely to be anything other than a temporary breather for the market following the steep decline of the last few months. This would certainly seem to be the case on Friday, with the candle closing the session with a deep upper shadow which struggled to hold above the 14 day moving average, and finally closed below later in the trading session. However it is also interesting to note that the base of the candle found support from the 9 day moving average, so we may see a continuation of this move higher in the short term. For any sustained rally we will need to see a weekly close above the 1.12 price level, coupled with strong support from all three moving averages, and much will now depend on the fundamental news this week which is of course dominated in the US with the FOMC meeting. With no news for Canada ( or the US ) today, the main economic data this week will be the Canadian Housing Starts tomorrow, followed by the Trade Balance figures for both countries on Wednesday, with the FOMC release later in the evening, so a busy day. Until then we are likely to see little real price action for the usd to cad as the currency pair continue to try to grind higher in thin trading volumes.

Published on Mon, Aug 10 2009, 14:52 GMT

US Dollar Index − Daily Chart

Mon, Aug 10 2009, 14:21 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Friday's wide spread up candle, finally provided some much needed help for the battered US dollar on the dollar index chart, but as I always say, one swallow does not make a summer, and there is a long way to go before we can assume that this is a full reversal in US dollar sentiment. With such severe congestion ahead and recovery will require a massive shift in investor sentiment if any reversal and move higher is to be maintained for anything longer than a few days, and the first problem is that the index needs to break and hold above the strong resistance now in place on the daily chart between the 79.50 and 81.0 price levels. Friday's close finished above both the 9 day and 14 day moving averages, an encouraging signal, but with the FOMC two day meeting due to start shortly, the week could once again be dominated by one piece of fundamental news, as was last week with the NFP on Friday. So for any sustained rally we need to see two things - firstly a break and weekly close above the 81 price handle, and secondly a breach of the 40 day moving which should then provide the support required for the US dollar index to climb higher. With the thin trading volumes now a feature of the markets, trading can be volatile, and unpredictable, and this could be the case on Wednesday with the FOMC as the markets now wait for the next major piece of news.

Published on Mon, Aug 10 2009, 14:21 GMT

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Mon, Aug 10 2009, 13:06 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Friday's price action on the dollar to yen daily chart ended the session on an enormous up bar totally at variance with the technical picture which to all intents and purposes pointed to yet further sideways consolidation. This week is an interesting for fundamental news on the economic calendar for both the US and Japan. So far today we have had 6 releases for Japan, starting with the Core Machinery Orders which came in much better than expected at 9.7% against a forecast of 2.8% and ending a three month run of declines. This was followed by bank lending, current account and M2 money supply where once again good news was the order the day as they all came in better than expected. In the early hours of the European session the Japanese news continued with the Economy Watchers' Sentiment Index which sadly failed to continue the positive tone, falling short of estimates of 43.4 by coming in at 42.4. The morning rounded off with Preliminary Machine Tool Orders which came out at -72.2%, a marginal improvement on the last time. There is nothing of note in the US until Wednesday' FOMC meeting but the news from Japan continues on and off all week and includes a two day meeting by the BOJ to decide on interest rates which markets widely expect to remain at 0.10%. From a technical perspective whether Friday's dramatic breakout is likely to continue depends on the deep resistance now ahead between the 0.98 and 102 price band and any effort to break through here will require a huge degree of both force and momentum.

Published on Mon, Aug 10 2009, 13:06 GMT

Pounds To Dollars − GBP/USD

Mon, Aug 10 2009, 12:41 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Last week's decision by the BOE to increase its scope of buying bonds beyond the original £150bn sent shock-waves through the pounds to dollar pair which had barely recovered before the pair was hit by a bounce in the US Dollar following the NFP data. Friday's wide spread down bar merely served to reinforce Thursday's bearish engulfing candle, closing the session marginally below the 9 day moving average but still well above the bulk of the support platform in place at the USD1.65+ handle. Whilst the breakout still remains intact this bout of bearishness in the British Pound came as a nasty shock to those holding long positions following the breakout (myself included) but before we become too despondent any reversal lower will still take a degree of force and momentum. In the meantime the British Pound is looking decidedly peaky as a glance at the weekly chart would suggest that we are in for a short term reversal given the shooting star candle sitting atop the recent rally. Despite this relatively strong signal my trading suggestion is to stand aside and wait for any bounce off the support platform below. There are no items of fundamental news on the economic calendar for either Sterling or the US Dollar and we must wait for the FOMC meeting and BOE inflation report on Wednesday for any clues as to the future direction for this pair.

Published on Mon, Aug 10 2009, 12:41 GMT

Currency Trading Majors Pairs − Euro vs Dollar

Mon, Aug 10 2009, 12:08 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Friday's wide spread down bar on the euro vs dollar daily came as a great relief to Dollar bulls who had all but thrown in the towel since the great breakout of last Monday as momentum from NFP figures sent the Eurodollar plunging straight back into the USD1.42 congestion area. In addition Friday's close finished well below both the 9 and 14 day moving averages. However, before the Dollar bulls become too euphoric any move lower will require sustained effort and force to drive through the strong support zone immediately below and I suspect that the markets will now await until Wednesday for the FOMC statement before deciding whether this is merely a short term reversal or the start of the long claw back by the US Dollar. At the same as the FOMC meeting this week's sees a raft of data from China which should give the markets some clear signals as to whether we are really at the dawn of a sustained (and sustainable) global recovery. These two factors may also confirm whether the recent tight correlation between the US Dollar and equity markets may now be coming to an end and whether the FED is likely to signal the start of any tightening of their monetary policy. My trading suggestion for today is to stand aside given the complete lack of life or momentum in this currency pair.

Published on Mon, Aug 10 2009, 12:08 GMT

Currency Trading Euro To Dollar

Mon, Aug 10 2009, 11:44 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

With precious little fundamental news on the economic calendar today for Europe and none at all for the US markets are taking a breather and waiting to decide whether last week's favourable NFP data is really the start of a long, slow recovery back to economic health. The only items of news in Europe have been French Industrial Production which came in better than expected along with the Sentix Investor Confidence number which too came in better than expected at -17 against a forecast of -26. As always the markets have to decide between risk appetite or risk avoidance and market mood can often be found in correlated or related markets. For this week it will be whether the 10 yr bond yield continues to rise and test the 4% level, last seen in early June, as investors take their money into riskier assets. On such decisions will also rest the fate of the US Dollar which did not weaken last Friday on rising equities as the market perhaps starts to take the view that with the US inching back into growth the FED will need to start thinking about interest rates once again. This week's FED meeting and raft of data from China should provide the forex market with plenty to think about.

Published on Mon, Aug 10 2009, 11:44 GMT

GBP/USD − Daily Chart

Fri, Aug 7 2009, 12:26 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Having already written in previous commentaries that the technical picture for the British Pound was somewhat weak Cable duly received a shove lower yesterday from the Bank of England, not based on the rate decision which remained on hold, but due to the further injection of money into the economy to the tune of £50bn. Clearly the BOE is of the opinion that the recession/depression is far worse than anticipated and likely to stick around for much longer. In addition they would have been aware of the IMF's view that sterling would be overvalued at USD1.70 - their opinion is a rate of around USD1.53. The market duly obliged and Sterling fell heavily ending the day on a wide spread down bar which also gave us a bearish engulfing signal. Today, of course, is Non Farm Payroll Data which will, no doubt, lend its own unique brand of volatility, and depending on the eventual numbers we could see Sterling fall even further. However, given the depth of support accumulated over the past 2 months and sitting immediately below it is hard to see any reversal penetrating this level in the short term, unless the NFP data is so bad that it actually changes market sentiment back towards the US Dollar, which may well be the case given the somewhat precarious nature of the equity markets - the S&P500 in particular. For those of you who like to trade the NFP the pounds to dollars pair may offer more opportunities today.

Published on Fri, Aug 7 2009, 12:26 GMT

EUR vs USD Daily Chart

Fri, Aug 7 2009, 11:46 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

With the markets now waiting for the Non Farm Payroll Data which is due out in the next 45 minutes, the Eurodollar is following much the same pattern as all the currency pairs and commodities with a pause. Yesterday's ECB rate decision and subsequent statement had a relatively muted impact on the Eurodollar which continued to trade in a very narrow range ending the trading session on a down bar with small wicks to top and bottom. This followed two days of previous indecision in this pair marked by two doji cross candles. The 1.4450 price handle now seems to be presenting modest resistance to any move higher and only a weekly close above here would indicate that the Euro is ready to continue the recent breakout. My initial target for this pair remains 1.47 with 1.50 in the medium term. Today's Non Farm Payroll data cannot be underestimated and unlike previous releases, today's numbers may well prove pivotal for the US Dollar for many reasons all of which I have explained in more detail on the euro to dollar site. Whether the numbers are good, bad or indifferent, or indeed how they are perceived by the markets, the fact remains that technically the Eurodollar remains in a strong bullish position and with the depth of support now below any temporary reversal is likely to bounce higher in due course.

Published on Fri, Aug 7 2009, 11:46 GMT

Euro Dollar − Fundamental News

Fri, Aug 7 2009, 11:31 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

There is only item of fundamental news on the economic calendar worth writing about today for the euro to dollar currency pair, and this is the Non Farm Payroll Data due out shortly. Its effect cannot be underestimated if only that it proves, once and for all, the cat's cradle that is the financial markets, but today's numbers may prove to be pivotal for the US dollar rather than the usual frenzy which is immediately forgotten by Monday!! Should the numbers come in better than expected then this should prove beneficial for equities as the market has proof positive that the worst is definitely over and the recent stock market rally has been founded on solid fact rather than mere sentiment and wishful thinking, low volumes notwithstanding. This picture would also suggest that the worst of the downturn in the housing sector is over and that a stable housing market could even feed through into accurate pricing for the sub prime mortgages still sitting on the Banks' balance sheet. In addition it could signal that the great American consumer is now ready and able to start spending once again. The consequence of this scenario is that the US Dollar would continue to weaken across the board and push the Euro higher. However, if the number is worse than expected then clearly the worst is not over, the consumer is not ready to start spending once again and equity markets could suffer a serious correction. This could lead to a bounce back in the US Dollar which would trigger falls in commodities and the Euro.

Published on Fri, Aug 7 2009, 11:31 GMT

USD vs JPY Daily Chart

Thu, Aug 6 2009, 11:38 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

There is very little I can add to any of my previous comments for the yen to dollar currency pair other than it continues to thrash around in the 94 to 96 price band and shows little sign of finding any direction in the short term. Indeed last week's close of a classic doji candle was symptomatic of a market looking for a direction. With no fundamental news on the economic calendar for Japan we must turn to the US where today sees the release of the weekly new unemployment claims, a taster for tomorrow's highly anticipated NFP data. In addition general market mood appears to be wavering in its love affair with riskier assets and should this mood solidify and translate into a major sell off in the equity markets then perhaps we may see some action in this pair.

Published on Thu, Aug 6 2009, 11:38 GMT

USD to CAD − Daily Chart

Thu, Aug 6 2009, 11:31 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

An interesting day for the dollar to cad currency pair on the daily chart yesterday as, once again, an effort to rise by the US Dollar was promptly squashed by the Loonie Bulls. The trading session ended the day with prices marginally higher but with a deep upper wick to the body of the candle, very similar to that of Tuesday. What is particularly worrying for the US Dollar bulls in this pair is that on both occasions the 9 day moving average provided an impenetrable barrier to any move higher which suggests that this is merely a staging post towards parity once again. With all three moving averages now pressing heavily on the pair it now only seems a matter of time before we see the trapdoor open once again, and any short reversal higher should be seen as an opportunity to sell the US Dollar once again. The main item of fundamental news on the economic calendar for Canada today is the Building Permits Data which is expected to come in at awful -1.2% when considered against last month's figure of +14.8%. The Data measures the change in the total value of new building permits issued, but the figures could be distorted by the summer lull. Meanwhile in the US the market waits for the weekly unemployment claims before the main event, tomorrow's Non Farm Payroll.

Published on Thu, Aug 6 2009, 11:31 GMT

GBP/USD − Daily Chart

Thu, Aug 6 2009, 11:25 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Much like its cousin, the euro vs dollar, the pounds to dollars currency pair too paused for breath yesterday, but ended the trading session ending on a spinning top candle. Such a candle following on the back of the doji candle of Tuesday may suggest a degree of weakness on the daily chart and we would be wise to take note of this particular signal as it may indicate the start of a short term reversal lower. Whilst I do not expect this to have any great depth nonetheless it would seem to suggest that the pounds to dollars pair has temporarily run out of steam and the British Pound may be slightly overbought at present. In addition the market is waiting for the BOE rate decision which is widely expected to remain on hold at 0.5%, although the associated statement will probably have more impact than the decision itself. In particular, the markets will be looking towards the quantitative easing aspect and any signal that the Bank is considering raising rates in the longer term. With all three moving averages pointing higher and with the strong platform now below the bullish picture is still intact, and any short term pullback should be seen as a buying opportunity for the British Pound.

Published on Thu, Aug 6 2009, 11:25 GMT

EUR vs USD Daily Chart

Thu, Aug 6 2009, 11:19 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Wider market risk sentiment appears to be influencing the euro vs dollar pair which was once again subject to indecision and trading in a very narrow range. Technically the daily chart ended with a perfect doji cross identical in all respects to that of Tuesday as the market waits for today's ECB rate decision, followed by the ECB statement, and then looks ahead to the NFP data tomorrow. Having broken out of the strong sideways consolidation this should now provide the platform for an eventual much strong move higher and with all three moving averages pointing upwards our medium term target still remains at 1.50. Any short term reversal (possibly as a result of some loose talk from Jean Claude Trichet) should be viewed as a buying opportunity. All the other fundamental news items on the economic calendar for both the euro and the dollar are covered in detail on the eurodollar site.

Published on Thu, Aug 6 2009, 11:19 GMT

EUR/USD Fundamental News

Thu, Aug 6 2009, 11:12 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The fundamental news on the economic calendar for today for the euro vs dollar currency pair is, of course, dominated by the ECB interest rate decision and statement due out later and, it is widely expected that the Bank will keep rates on hold for the time being. As usual Trichet's words will be closely scrutinized for any indication as to the future monetary direction for the Eurozone. Earlier this morning we had the Italian Industrial Production figures which came out worse than expected at -1.2% against a forecast of 0.4%, whilst German factory orders, just released, were significantly better than expected at 4.5% versus a target of 0.6% - stellar results indeed and of course, the Euro promptly fell as market mood is currently being dictated by risk sentiment and not by individual fundamental news items. Following the ECB press conference we have the US unemployment claims which are forecast at 587k, a modest increase on last week's 584k - a measure of the number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time and therefore a good guide to the labour market.

Published on Thu, Aug 6 2009, 11:12 GMT

USD to CAD − Daily Chart

Wed, Aug 5 2009, 12:23 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's comeback by the US Dollar against the Loonie is hardly surprising given the strength and depth of its recent fall with the pair ending the trading session on a bullish "gravestone" doji candle which is often the signal for a short term squeeze or rally. Indeed this signal has been validated in this morning's early trading. However, the fact remains that general market sentiment towards the US Dollar is still decidedly negative and unlikely to change in the near future. As a result any upswings in this pair should be viewed as opportunities to sell into the market as any rally is likely to be short lived with the 9 day moving average seeming to act as a barrier to any move higher. All the items of fundamental news on the economic calendar for the US are covered on the main Eurodollar site while for Canada we have to wait until tomorrow for the Building Permits Data.

Published on Wed, Aug 5 2009, 12:23 GMT

Currency Trading Majors Pairs Pounds to Dollars

Wed, Aug 5 2009, 11:48 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Like many other currency pairs yesterday the pounds to dollars too decided to take a breather following the effort of breaking out of the sideways consolidation of the last 2 months, ending the session as a small doji cross. With the breakout now complete and clear water below we are now in a position to see a strong move upwards towards our initial price target of 1.75 which should be achieved in the short to medium term. The support below now provides an excellent platform as well as considerable downside protection to any pullback. With all three moving averages now turning higher and with little resistance ahead until we hit the 1.75 to 1.77 region there is no reason to suppose that this will be anything other than a relatively quick run up to this level. The British Pound was helped higher in this morning's London session by some positive fundamental news which included manufacturing production which came in better than expected at 0.4%, reversing the recent trend of negative results, services PMI data which came in at 53.2 against a forecast of 51.9 and finally, industrial production which again reversed recent negative trends with a 0.5% result against a forecast of 0%. In addition the UK housing market also reflected this positive tone coming in at 1.1% against a forecast of 0.7%. The focus for this afternoon is in the US where we start with the ADP figures which generally provide an excellent foretaste of the Non Farm Payroll data due out on Friday, followed by ISM non manufacturing, factory orders, and crude oil inventories. I have covered all of these in more detail on the eurodollar site.

Published on Wed, Aug 5 2009, 11:48 GMT

Currency Trading Dollar Index

Wed, Aug 5 2009, 11:40 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The markets and traders all took a break from the recent bout of dollar bashing, which despite being on a life support, is still managing to cling onto the 77 price handle. This current pause is reflected across all the currency pairs as the market now waits for various key fundamental news items on the economic calendar, kicking off today with ADP and crude oil inventories, moves to the ECB rate decision tomorrow and ends on Friday with the Non Farm Payroll. Any, or indeed all, of these is likely to move the Dollar index substantially, but the technical picture still remains very bleak and bearish for the US Dollar.

Published on Wed, Aug 5 2009, 11:40 GMT

Currency Trading Major Pairs − Euro vs Dollar

Wed, Aug 5 2009, 11:32 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Following three consecutive days of gains the euro vs dollar currency pair took a breather yesterday ending the trading session with a tiny doji as traders took some profits and now wait for the next batch of fundamental news on the economic calendar. Amongst these are the ADP figures today, the ECB rate decision tomorrow and finally non farm payroll on Friday, all of which should provide additional volatility to the pair, which may well begin later on today when the first of these is announced. With the breakout having now finally occurred and with a strong platform now sitting below the current market price we should see the Eurodollar power ahead in the short term to a longer term target of 1.50 firmly in our sights. In the interim any pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity. All the other fundamental news items are covered on the main euro to dollar site.

Published on Wed, Aug 5 2009, 11:32 GMT

Euro To Dollar − Fundamental News

Wed, Aug 5 2009, 08:29 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The most important piece of fundamental news on the economic calendar for today is the release of the ADP data in the US this afternoon, which is a pre-cursor to the Non Farm Payroll figures released by the Department of Labor on Friday. The data is derived from payroll information collected by Advanced Data Processing, one of the largest payroll processing companies in the US, who provide their services to many of the largest corporations, and based on the changes in the number they then provide an estimate of the change in the employment numbers during the previous month. This data is released two days ahead of the NFP, but since its inception 3 years ago has tended to provide a relatively good guide to the more important NFP data set, and is therefore an important number for traders to watch today. The forecast is for a figure of -351,000 which is significantly better than last time at -473,000, and should the numbers be better than expected then a surge in equity markets could spell more trouble for the battered US dollar once again.

Two hours after the ADP numbers we have yet another diffusion index ( an important one this time), namely the Non Manufacturing PMI data released by the Institute of Supply Management ( ISM). The index is based on a survey of around 400 purchasing managers, which asks for their views on the current economic climate, particularly with regard to new order, prices, suppliers etc. Any figure above 50 indicates an industry in expansion and below is in contraction. The forecast for this afternoon is 48.1, an improvement on last month at 47.0. This release is combined with Factory Orders, and followed shortly afterwards by the Oil Inventories which are expected to show a further build of 0.9m barrels. This data tends to have a muted effect on the US dollar but is more pronounced on the Canadian Loonie due to the latter's pre-eminence as an oil producer in the energy complex.

The only significant item of news for Europe this morning is the retail sales figures which are forecast to show an improvement from the previous at 0.3% with last month's figures showing a decline of -0.4% so further goods news for the Euro should these numbers be achieved.

Published on Wed, Aug 5 2009, 08:29 GMT

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Tue, Aug 4 2009, 14:19 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The yen to dollar currency pair continues to trade in its own idiosyncratic and tiresome fashion which almost beggars belief and provides few trading opportunities other than a strategy based on simply flipping a coin! The only thing one can say at present is that the strong resistance in the 95 plus region seems to be holding firm and despite several attempts the pair have failed to penetrate this to any great extent. The weekly chart is perhaps more illuminating in that the current sideways movement is less well defined and demonstrates a tendency towards the bear side with all three moving averages pressing down. Should this result in a break lower then we may see a re-test of the 89 price point last seen in early 2009 which could then trigger a bounce back. In the meantime this pair may be one to avoid until there is more clarity on the yen to dollar chart. With no fundamental news on the economic calendar for Japan and only pending home sales data in the US the best we can hope for this pair is further drift until the NFP numbers injects some much needed life in the chart.

Published on Tue, Aug 4 2009, 14:19 GMT

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Tue, Aug 4 2009, 14:09 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's wide spread up bar which temporarily kissed the 1.70 level gave a strong bullish signal following Friday's breakout which confirmed that the sideways consolidation of the last 2 months is now well and truly behind us. The price action yesterday was given additional impetus by the gapped up open of the early morning suggesting once again that the current bullish sentiment may have some "legs". Trading today has been relatively quiet as traders bank profits and the market takes a breather and with little fundamental news on the economic calendar market players are waiting for Thursday's MPC rate statement and interest rate decision in the UK. This is closely followed, of course, by non farm payroll on Friday. With all three moving averages now pointing higher my trading suggestion is to buy on any pullbacks on an intra day basis and with the move fully supported by growing volume in the futures market we could see an attack on the 1.75 price level in due course.

Published on Tue, Aug 4 2009, 14:09 GMT

USD to CAD Daily Chart

Tue, Aug 4 2009, 13:53 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The usd to cad currency pair was yet another beneficiary of the current round of "dollar bashing" which was seen across the entire market yesterday. The commdollar pair finished the trading session on a wide spread down bar, having broken below the interim support level at 1.08, signalling that we are now in a strong bear move which should see the 1.05 price handle hove into view in the short term with longer term parity not far away. With the Dollar Index chart looking particularly fragile it will take a considerable degree of momentum and a change in sentiment to reverse this present bout of chronic Dollar weakness. My trading suggestion for today is to sell on any short term upticks. With no fundamental news on the economic calendar for Canada today, the main item is the release of pending home sales in the US which are expected to come in at 0.6% against a previous of 0.1% thereby signalling that the recent "green shoots" are translating into firm economic plants.

Published on Tue, Aug 4 2009, 13:53 GMT

US Dollar Index − Daily Chart

Tue, Aug 4 2009, 13:46 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's pivotal candle broke below the 78.50 support level, and one which I have mentioned many times before in the dollar index market commentaries, and with this level now broken we could see a much deeper fall towards the next level now waiting in the 75 to 76.50 region. Should this be breached then we could well see the Index collapse even as low as the 71 area last seen in July 2008. Today the market appears to be taking a breather as traders bank profits and absorb the strong moves across all the dollar related pairs on Friday and Monday. With all three moving averages now weighing heavily on the index there only seems to be one direction for the US Dollar at present and that is South.

Published on Tue, Aug 4 2009, 13:46 GMT

Euro vs Dollar − daily chart

Tue, Aug 4 2009, 11:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's wide spread up bar on the euro vs dollar finally delivered the much awaited breakout from the last 2 months of sideways consolidation which was characterized by a frenzy of Euro buying. Needless to say in this morning's London trading session the currency pair has paused for breath as it now awaits the ECB interest rate decision and statement on Thursday. With such a strong platform now providing a support it is difficult to imagine anything other than a continuation of yesterday's move upwards and in the short term my initial target for the euro vs dollar is an attack on the next resistance level which now sits above the 1.46 to 1.48 price region and should this be breached then we could well see a return to the 1.50 level and above in the medium term. The resistance level outlined above should not be underestimated having been created over a period of 14 weeks during the latter part of 2007 and early 2008 and will therefore require significant force to break through.

With little in the way of fundamental news on the economic calendar for either the Euro or the US Dollar until tomorrow, the currency market will now be taking their lead from the equity markets and in particular the S&P500 which yesterday broke through the 1000 price level. All the fundamental news is covered on the main Eurodollar site.

Published on Tue, Aug 4 2009, 11:56 GMT

Euro Dollar − Fundamental News

Tue, Aug 4 2009, 09:25 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

A quiet day in Europe for fundamental news on the economic calendar today, as the markets now wait for Thursday's ECB decision, with only one piece of data due for release this morning, namely the PPI numbers month on month. These are forecast at 0.2% ( positive from last time's -0.2% ) and the data measures the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers in the euro zone. It generally tends to have a muted impact because Germany and France, which account for about half of the Eurozone's economy, release their PPI figures earlier.

The only significant release in the US this afternoon are the Pending Home sales figures which measure the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction. The data is normally released 15 days after Existing Home Sales, but it tends to be more forward looking as a contract is signed several weeks before the home is counted as sold, and as a result is generally considered to be a leading indicator for the economy. The forecast for this afternoon is 0.6%, marginally better than last time at 0.1%, and should the numbers come in better than expected then the poor old US dollar will no doubt weaken further as investors rush into equities once again at the expense of the dollar. Other minor items of fundamental news include the Core PCE price index, Personal Spending and Personal income, details of which can be found in the economic calendar.

Published on Tue, Aug 4 2009, 09:25 GMT

USD vs CAD Daily Chart

Mon, Aug 3 2009, 20:40 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Despite the fact that it was a national holiday in Canada today, the usd to cad was not protected from the further weakening in the US dollar which was felt across all the major currency pairs, as investor appetite for risk continued unabated, with the consequent sell of in the dollar, with prices falling below the key 1.08 support level. With this region now breached, and the US dollar index chart looking extremely weak and potentially about to collapse, we could see a steep move lower in the US dollar cad in the next few days, with the first target being the 1.o5 level, and should this be broken then the next intermediate level is at 1.02, with parity just over the horizon. Both the weekly and monthly charts confirm this picture with all three moving averages weighing heavily or pointing sharply lower. It will take a dramatic shift in investor sentiment or in the fundamental news, to stop the rot now, and in the short term there is only one way to trade the US dollar vs Canadian Dollar, and that's the short side.

Published on Mon, Aug 3 2009, 20:40 GMT

Currency Market Short Summary

Mon, Aug 3 2009, 20:38 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Previous Currency Market Session Summary

Demand for safe haven assets such as the Dollar, JPY & Swiss Franc all fell as traders and investors turned towards the higher yielding, riskier currencies aided and abetted by better than expected manufacturing reports and advances in both crude oil and equities. Traders and investors now appear to be taking the view that the worst of the financial crisis is now over and are becoming more confidence in moving back into riskier assets. This heightened appetite for risk has been mirrored in the fall of the Dollar Index which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies such as the Euro, Sterling and the Canadian Loonie. Today this hit a fresh low. Investors were further encouraged by the ISM data which came in at 48.9 - nudging ever closer to the key 50 number, up from 44.8 in June and exceeding analyst forecast of 46.5.

One of today's best performing currencies today was the British Pound which powered to an inter day high of 1.69 plus and now looks set to move towards USD1.72

Forex Market Expectation

EURUSD extends gains beyond USD1.4400 as US markets manage to hold onto gains and from a technical perspective resistance is now a distant USD1.4622 (61.8% of 2008 decline). EURJPY extends rally as the pair track equity market performance and through resistance between JPY136.40/50 and trades to JPY136.63 as selling in USDJPY provides a counterweight. If this rally can continue the next band of resistance is between JPY136.90/00/

Published on Mon, Aug 3 2009, 20:38 GMT

US Dollar Index − Daily Candle Chart

Mon, Aug 3 2009, 20:21 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Friday's wide spread down bar on the Dollar Index daily chart was pivotal in many respects as it finally broke below the 78.5 floor of the current support level which I have outlined in several previous posts and given that this has now been breached we can expect an extended period of US weakness which has already been effected in today's trading. The same picture is apparent on the weekly chart with the Index closing last week's trading session with a deep upper wick which found resistance at the 9 week moving average. With virtually no support between the current level at 77.6 and the major support in the 73 region we could see the Dollar Index fall both far and fast in the next few weeks. The only level of support which now lies in the way is that between 75.50 and 76.50. The monthly chart also points to an identical scenario with the 9 month moving average having already turned lower and with the 40 month average weighing down heavily as the Index moves lower. It will now take a considerable shift both technically and fundamentally to reverse the current fall and more worryingly for Dollar bulls a complete volte face on investor attitude to risk.

Published on Mon, Aug 3 2009, 20:21 GMT

Currency Trading Majors Pairs Pounds to Dollars

Mon, Aug 3 2009, 13:24 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

As with the Eurodollar, so with the pounds to dollars pair and there is only one to trade in the short term which is to the bull side. Friday's wide spread up bar finally gave us both momentum and a much needed trading signal with prices finally breaking out of the sideways consolidation of the last two months and now looking set for a significant push higher. This has already happened in the London session this morning with the consolidation now providing an initial platform, with all three moving averages pointing firmly higher. This picture is confirmed on both the weekly and monthly charts and the next price level as an initial target is the interim resistance in place at the 1.75 region so there should be some nice profits to be made over the coming days and weeks. All items of fundamental news on the economic calendar for the US are covered in the main euro to dollar site while for the UK the only item this morning has been the manufacturing PMI data which came in better than expected at 50.8 against a forecast target of 47.7, nudging above the pivotal 50 level which represents the crossover between contraction and expansion which helped Cable to move higher. However, the main driver for the British Pound still remains the level of risk sentiment within the general market which at present is still firmly bullish.

Published on Mon, Aug 3 2009, 13:24 GMT

Currency Trading Majors Pairs − Euro vs Dollar

Mon, Aug 3 2009, 13:04 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

There is only one way to trade the euro vs dollar in the short term and that is to buy. After weeks of dithering Friday's surge higher which broke above bothteh 9 and 14 day moving averages finally added some much needed momentum to the market which has continued in early trading this morning as we now witness the long awaited breakout at the 1.43 level. Should this occur today, as expected, then we should look to build profits with longer term trades tracking the move higher with the long period of consolidation of the last 2 months providing a solid platform. The weekly chart presents a very similar picture to that for the daily chart, with last week's candle ending the session with a deeper lower wick and bullish body suggesting that a strong move higher is imminent, supported by all three moving averages which are pointing higher. The monthly chart also reinforces this picture in that the 9 month moving average is now pointing sharply higher and with the other too beginning to turn. There is very little in the way of resistance ahead, other than that between 1.45 and 1.48 and should these levels be breached then we could see a run back up towards the 1.52 price and beyond in due course. The only caveat to this picture is the extent to which the ECB will allow the Euro to strengthen to this level once again. However, given that both the British Pound and the CanadianLoonie have broken through their respective technical levels it really was only a matter of time before the Euro followed suit.

Published on Mon, Aug 3 2009, 13:04 GMT

Currency Trading Majors Pairs

Mon, Aug 3 2009, 12:19 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

A busy week for fundamental news on the economic calendar this week for the euro to dollar, with ADP in the US on Wednesday, followed by an ECB decision on Thursday and, of course, ending the week with NFP on Friday, so a hectic week of news! This morning the news started early in Europe with the release of the German Retail Sales figures which came in worse than expected at -1.8% against a forecast of 0.4%. denting any hopes of a speedy economic recovery and worse than last month's figures, so despite some positive news from Germany in the last few weeks this has taken the gloss off the recent rosy picture. This was followed by the final manufacturing PMI data (yet another diffusion index) which was marginally better than expected at 46.3 against a forecast of 46, which completed the news for Europe. We are now awaiting the most important number for today, which is the equivalent in the US, issued by the ISM and forecast at a very similar level to that of Europe at 46.4. Allegedly if the actual is better than forecast then this is supposed to be dollar positive, however, current market sentiment is very much focused on risk appetite. If the number is higher than expected then investors will more likely turn to riskier assets, such as equities which will be at the expense of the US Dollar. In addition to the above we also have some minor data including construction spending, ISM manufacturing prices, and finally vehicle sales all of which should give the market an indication as to whether the US government monetary stimulus plan is in fact beginning to work.

Published on Mon, Aug 3 2009, 12:19 GMT

Euro To Dollar − Fundamental News

Fri, Jul 31 2009, 08:31 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

A relatively quiet day once again for fundamental news on the economic calendar today, with no major news stories in Europe and only one 'red flag' item in the US, namely the Advance GDP data. So starting in Europe this morning we have the CPI Flash Estimate which is forecast at -0.4% against a previous of -0.1%. If this forecast is correct then this indicates the inflation in Europe is slipping further into negative territory, which will no doubt help to convince the markets that the ECB will leave interest rates at record lows for some time yet as it bids to boost confidence in a badly hit economy. At the same time as this release we also have the Italian Preliminary CPI numbers which are forecast at 0.1% along with the Unemployment Rate for Europe which is forecast to worsen from last time to 9.7% from 9.5%.

The main fundamental news item of the day is of course the Advance GDP figure in the US, which is forecast to come in at -1.3%, against a previous of -5.5%. Whist this would normally be seen as bad news, it has to be seen in the broader context of the last two quarters where the economy shrank by 6.3% in the fourth quarter and 5.5% in the first, which caused the markets and many economists to worry about the possibility of a depression. So in the context of the last few months this figure ( if achieved ) may actually be seen as good news. The week rounds off with the Chicago PMI data, a diffusion index based on a survey of Purchasing Managers in the Chicago area, with the forecast for this afternoon at 42.1, up from last time at 39.9.

Published on Fri, Jul 31 2009, 08:31 GMT

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Thu, Jul 30 2009, 11:24 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The yen to dollar pair continued to move sideways yesterday ( just for a change) closing the session with an up candle this time, which reversed the losses of Tuesday and reinforcing the lack of direction so prevalent in the last few months. It is interesting to note however that the 95.50 seems to be the stumbling block to any short term move higher, which is also being helped by the 40 day moving average which is adding to this technical barrier. This level is also the start of the deep congestion above, so with these three factors combining, this may prove to be the turning point to a deeper move lower in due course. If and until this happens we will have to wait, and I for my own trading I am avoiding this pair at present until we see some clearly defined signals and a break below the 92 price point.

The only fundamental news overnight for the Japanese Yen was the Preliminary Industrial Production figures which came in marginally worse than expected at 2.4% against a forecast of 2.5%. Whilst this was below expectation it was the fourth straight month that industrial output has risen, as exports get support from a gradual pickup in global demand led by stimulus spending across the world. There are two versions of this indicator released about 15 days apart - the first is the one last night, which is then followed by the Revised, and of the two last night's figures tend to have the most impact. This is generally considered a leading indicator for the Japanese economy as a whole given it's preeminence as one of the worlds largest exporters. The fundamental news for the US is limited to the weekly Unemployment claims, so once again I suspect we will see little movement in the USD/JPY pair as they continue their inexorable move sideways price action for another day.

Published on Thu, Jul 30 2009, 11:24 GMT

USD to CAD Daily Chart

Thu, Jul 30 2009, 10:26 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The long legged doji of Tuesday duly delivered yesterday for the usd to cad pair, ending the session with an up candle, but one that failed to inspire or provide a huge degree of confidence! Whilst this could be the start of a short term reversal as we saw in early June, yesterdays narrow spread candle was weak, with the high of the day failing to clear the 9 day moving average which seemed to act as a barrier to any further progress higher. In addition we have the minor resistance level now ahead at 1.10, and for any longer term reversal higher we need to see this level breached before we can assume that this move has any momentum. Should prices once again fail to clear the 9 day and 14 day moving averages, and in addition find this resistance level too strong to penetrate, then we can assume that this is only a minor move, with the prospect of a further fall to come in due course.

The main fundamental news on the economic calendar today are the Unemployment Numbers in the US, and for Canada it's the RMPI and IPPI data. The first of these is the Raw Materials Price Index, a leading indicator which measures the change in the price of raw materials, and is generally considered a leading indicator of inflation (or deflation). The forecast for today is 3.1% against a previous of 2.2%, whilst for IPPI ( which is just for goods produced domestically) the forecast is 0.2% against a previous of -1.1%.

Published on Thu, Jul 30 2009, 10:26 GMT

US Dollar Index − Daily Chart

Thu, Jul 30 2009, 09:58 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The US dollar index, and hence the US dollar, received a much needed shot in the arm yesterday on the daily dollar index chart, ending the session with a wide spread up bar, which followed the long legged doji that I outlined in Wednesday's analysis as a possible turning point for the US dollar. The dollar duly delivered and ended the session above both the 9 day and 14 day moving averages - a positive signal but insufficient to signal anything other than a short term reversal at this stage, rather than any longer term structural change in sentiment. For this to occur we need to see two things. First we have to penetrate and hold above the deep resistance now immediately ahead in the 79 to 81 price band, coupled with strong support from all three moving averages. Secondly we then need to see a sustained effort to break back above the 86.50 region and beyond. If these elements combine in the next few weeks, then we should see a resurgence in the US dollar as a result, however, this could simply be a short lived breather in the market, before the index heads lower once again - only time will tell, but the above analysis should provide us with a better clue for the future as we watch events unfold on the fundamental news front.

Published on Thu, Jul 30 2009, 09:58 GMT

Pounds To Dollars Daily Chart

Thu, Jul 30 2009, 08:59 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's price action on the pounds to dollars daily chart provided little in the way of any clues or signals for us as currency traders, as trading was once again restricted to a relatively narrow range. Whilst the down candle created, closed marginally below all three moving averages, this has little significance given the tight bunching that is now in progress, and the pivotal level remains intact at 1.67. It is interesting to note over the last two days that the euro dollar and pound dollar seemed to have disconnected again, with the correlation once again falling out of synch, and this has been repeated in early trading this morning with cable moving higher on the back of some encouraging news on the UK housing front, whilst the euro dollar has struggled to regain some of the losses following two days of sustained selling pressure. All that can be said at present is much the same as before - until we see a sustained break AND hold above the 1.67 price handle then any attempt to move higher can only be considered to be a short term reversal. Likewise, on the short side, until we see a break and hold firmly below the 1.60 price level, then again we cannot assume that any trend lower is more than a temporary reversal. We therefore have to be patient with Cable and look for trading opportunities in other markets and pairs.As mentioned above the main item of fundamental news on the economic calendar for the UK this morning was the release of the Nationwide HPI data, which showed house prices rising for the third month in a row, and beating the forecast of 0.3% with a healthy 1.3% - whether you believe these figures is another matter entirely as anecdotal evidence would suggest otherwise - but there we are - statistics never lie !!!!!! The main item of fundamental news in the US is the weekly unemployment data and I have covered this more fully on the euro dollar site.

Published on Thu, Jul 30 2009, 08:59 GMT

Euro vs Dollar Daily Chart

Thu, Jul 30 2009, 08:25 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's wide spread down bar for the euro vs dollar, confirmed with some authority the bearish engulfing candle I signalled on Wednesdays commentary for the pair, would seem to suggest that the 1.43 price handle was indeed the straw that broke the camel's back. However, before we rush to assume that we are now seeing the start of a longer and deeper move lower for the euro vs dollar, there are several points we need to consider carefully at this stage. First, the low of yesterday seemed to find some support from the 40 day moving average which provided a cushion to a deeper move. Second, there is a strong intermediate level of support at the 1.40 price handle, both psychological and technical, which again seem to provide a platform yesterday. Finally, given the strong sideways consolidation of the last few weeks it would not be a great surprise, given the fragile nature of the US dollar at present, to see a short term reversal back higher once again. For any longer term trend trading, we need to wait at the for the major support level to be breached at the 1.38 price level - should this occur then we can trade with a degree of comfort on the short side, knowing that any interim reversal higher will then have to contend with a concentrated level of price action above, which will take a considerable effort to penetrate. My advice therefore is to wait for this to occur in due course, and coupled with the moving averages weighing down, this should present the right conditions for a longer term trade to the short side. There is very little in the way of fundamental news today on the economic calendar, but I have highlighted the main items on the euro dollar site for you in more detail.

Published on Thu, Jul 30 2009, 08:25 GMT

Euro To Dollar − Fundamental News

Thu, Jul 30 2009, 07:38 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

A relatively quiet day for fundamental news on the economic calender today, both for the Europe and the US, with the only items of European data being the German Unemployment numbers followed shortly afterwards by the Consumer Confidence data. The first of these is forecast at 44k against a previous of 31k, and measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month - always a key number as Germany is generally considered to be the powerhouse of Europe. Should these numbers be better than expected then this may help ease the Euro higher this morning. The Consumer Confidence Index is yet another sentiment indicator ( of which there are many) which are supposed to provide a guide to how consumers "feel" about the current economy with any figure below 0 indicating a negative feeling, and above zero is positive - the forecast for today is -24, little changed from last time at -24.

The most significant number for today will be the US weekly Unemployment claims, which are forecast to be worse than last week at 573,000, an increase of 19,000 week on week. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health since consumer spending is highly correlated with labor conditions. Should the numbers be better than expected then this may help the US dollar push higher later today.

Published on Thu, Jul 30 2009, 07:38 GMT

USD/JPY Daily Fx Chart

Wed, Jul 29 2009, 13:03 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Finally we had a signal of sorts yesterday, which has at least given us a clue as to the short term direction for the yen to dollar currency pair, ( other than sideways!!) - with the daily candle ending the session as a wide spread down bar and giving us a bearish engulfing signal on the day. Once again the high of the day failed to make any progress higher, and in addition the 40 day moving average added downwards pressure, suggesting that we may now see a deeper move lower in due course. However given the congestion of the last few months, my advice is to wait for this candle to be validated before attempting any trend trades, and I would suggest that a break below the $92.50 price level, coupled with a breach of both the 9 day and 14 day moving averages, should be considered the bare minimum.

All the fundamental news on the economic calendar for the US dollar is covered in detail for you in the euro to dollar site, whilst the only item for the Japanese yen was released during the Asian trading session with the Retail Sales figures, which disappointed the markets coming in worse than expected at -3.0%, against a forecast of -2.5%. Overall the figures suggested that the BOJ stimulus package was having little effect in the home markets, with income and unemployment worsening and adversely affecting sales as a result.

Published on Wed, Jul 29 2009, 13:03 GMT

US Dollar Index − Daily Chart

Wed, Jul 29 2009, 12:22 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The poor old US dollar finally found some support yesterday on the dollar index daily chart, giving US dollar bulls something to cheer about at long last, after the long slow decline of the last few months. Technically, yesterday's candle ended the currency trading session as a long legged doji, indicative of indecision in the market, and representative of a battle between the bulls and the bears, suggesting a possible turning point. Of course one swallow doesn't make a summer, however, it is very interesting to note that the low of the day, found support at precisely the same level as in early June where we saw the previous bounce occur. As I outlined in yesterday's market analysis, had this level failed to hold, then we would be looking at a much deeper move and a collapse in US dollar confidence. Whilst it is far to early to say, this is the first signal for some time that confidence and strength may be returning to the US currency. Technically however we will need to see a break and hold above all three moving averages, coupled with a breach of the deep resistance between 79 and 81, before this can be considered as a sustained recovery.

Published on Wed, Jul 29 2009, 12:22 GMT

USD to CAD Daily Chart

Wed, Jul 29 2009, 12:04 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

An interesting day on the usd to cad daily candle chart yesterday, with the currency pair finishing the day with a long legged doji, indicative of indecision and therefore a possible turning point. What is particularly interesting about this candle is that the low of the day is precisely aligned with the lows of early June, from where we saw a sustained rally take place moving the pair from 1.08 back to re-test the resistance in place at the 1.17 level, before stalling and finally reversing sharply lower. Whilst we may not see a complete re-run of this price action, the fact that we have a doji at an identical level should be a warning signal that the sharp decline of the last two weeks may have come to an end, and that the US dollar bulls are about to take control once again. Clearly this is unlikely to happen overnight, and with all three moving averages still weighing heavily down, then we will need to see these breached initially before any sustained move higher could be considered as any longer term reversal. It may well be that this will simply be a pause point before moving lower once again, however for longer term trend trading I would suggest tightening up stops and possibly taking some profits off the table before being caught in a short squeeze higher. The first test of any upwards move will come at 1.10 where we now have a minor resistance level in place, bit should this be breached then we could see a stronger move upwards, similar to that in June.

There are several items of fundamental news due for release in the US shortly, and I have covered these for you in detail on the euro to dollar site. With no news on the economic calendar for Canada today, the only item of significance of the Canadian dollar will be the oil inventory figures, which as always will have a greater impact on this currency that the US dollar.

Published on Wed, Jul 29 2009, 12:04 GMT

Pounds To Dollars Daily Chart

Wed, Jul 29 2009, 11:35 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The fall in Cable yesterday, was less pronounced than in the euro vs dollar chart, but nevertheless the glimmer of strength exhibited by the US dollar yesterday, could be a sign of things to come, as once again the pounds to dollars pair continued to trade in this compressed range, just below the 1.66 price level. Yesterday's down candle, in effect, created a two bar upthrust following the up candle of the day before, and if we add this to the bearish engulfing signal of Thursday last week, then this could be a further sign that the bulls are about to give up the fight, and admit defeat to the Cable bears. Naturally this is far too early to say at this stage, and with the close of yesterday finding support from the 14 day moving average, we may yet see further attempt to push higher. However as I have said many times before, only a break and hold above the 1.66 region will be good enough to confirm this picture - anything less simply WILL NOT DO! I would also urge you to watch the euro dollar - in the past these two currency pairs have often correlated extremely well at 0.90 and above - we may be seeing a resurgence in this positive correlation with the euro dollar leading the way.

I have covered all the US fundamental news on the economic calendar for you on the euro dollar site, whilst in the UK, the main item this morning was for mortgage approvals which came in at 48K, their highest level since April 2008, but still very weak compared with 2 to 3 years ago, and counterbalanced by total consumer lending which rose by the smallest amount on record. The Bank said home loan approvals were 47,584 in June, up from 44,169 in May and just above analysts' forecasts of 47,000.

Published on Wed, Jul 29 2009, 11:35 GMT

Euro vs Dollar Daily Chart

Wed, Jul 29 2009, 11:13 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's wide spread down bar was perhaps the first sign that the euro vs dollar has started to capitulate at this trading level, having failed to breach the 1.43 price handle for the seventh consecutive day. An early attempt to breach this level in the early morning trading was once again flattened as the US markets opened, closing the session below the 9 day moving average but finding some support from the 14 day average immediately below. From a technical perspective we have a clear bearish engulfing signal which would suggest weakness in the daily chart. However before we assume that the currency pair have turned, and finally given up on any move higher, we need to see this signal confirmed in the price action later this week, and given the strength of the consolidation now in place, I would suggest that we wait until prices close well below the 1.38 region, before considering any longer term trend trading. In addition we need to see all three moving averages pointing sharply lower and adding their own pressure to any move back down, before we can be certain. In contrast of course, should yesterday's signal fail to be validated, then we could see a further period of sideways consolidation at this level once again, with only a break and hold above the 1.43 level finally confirming any breakout to the upside.

Published on Wed, Jul 29 2009, 11:13 GMT

Euro To Dollar − Fundamental News

Wed, Jul 29 2009, 10:54 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

A day of contrast for fundamental news on the economic calendar today, with only one item of note for Europe, whilst the US market is peppered with news items and speeches throughout the afternoon and evening trading session in New York. So starting in Europe we have the German Preliminary CPI data, always a little odd as it is never released as one item of news, but is drip fed throughout the day, as each German state reports separately. Most economic calendars generally list this item as an 'All Day' event because the data is compiled from 6 German states which report their CPI throughout the day. There are 2 versions of CPI which are normally released about 15 days apart - the Preliminary is first, and followed by the Final. As you would expect the Preliminary release is the Euro zone's earliest major consumer inflation and therefore the one that has the most impact on the markets. As consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation or deflation, it is therefore important in currency valuation since price changes will tend to dictate the ECB's policy for interest rates. The forecast for today is 0.2% against a previous of 0.4%.

The US trading session gets underway with the Core Durable Goods orders numbers, which are expected to show a fall on the previous month ( down to 0.1% from 1.1% last time) but with both General Motors and Chrysler closed for at least part of the month, this will not surprise the markets, and if the number is better than expected then this could be good news for the battered US dollar. This release is coupled with Durable Goods Orders which is forecast at -0.6%, again well down on last month at 1.8%. The next item of fundamental news this afternoon are the Crude Oil Inventories, which whilst a US data set, always have a greater impact on the so called 'com dollar ' currencies such as the USD vs CAD due the latter's significance as an oil producer. The forecast today is for inventories to fall from -1.8 last time to - 1.1 this time. Finally this evening we have the release of the Beige Book which is an anecdotal report, which helps the FOMC in their analysis of the economy and which is therefore used in reaching their next decision on interest rates. However, it tends to produce a mild impact as the FOMC also receives reports which are not published namely the Green Book and the Blue Book , and it bis generally believed that these are far more influential to their rate decision, than the Beige book - but nevertheless an interesting piece of fundamental news.

Peppered in amongst all the above we then have a series of speeches from the great and the good including FED Chairman Ben Bernanke who continues his series of TV recorded earlier and released each evening, and finally FOMC member William Dudley who is due to speak about factors driving US economic growth and inflation at the Business Group Association, in New York - so all in all a busy afternoon!

Published on Wed, Jul 29 2009, 10:54 GMT

USD to CAD Daily Chart

Tue, Jul 28 2009, 13:45 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The bears remained firmly in control once again yesterday, with the daily candle ending the session with a wide spread down bar, which briefly found some support at the level created in early June. With all three moving averages now weighting heavily on the currency pair, it seems unlikely that we will see a repeat of the bounce we saw from this level last time, but given the strength of this move, we do need to be cautious in building any further short positions at this stage. A break below this region could open the way to a deeper move test the 1.05 region once again, which in turn would open the way to a move back to parity in the medium term. If the US dollar continues its decline of the last few weeks then this could be achieved sooner rather then later!

All the fundamental news on the economic calendar today is in the US, with the release of the CB Consumer Confidence numbers which are due out shortly( forecast is 49.1 against a previous of 49.3) followed by a series of speeches from the policy makers including Geithner, Bernanke and Yellen.

Published on Tue, Jul 28 2009, 13:45 GMT

Euro Dollar Daily Chart

Tue, Jul 28 2009, 13:21 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The 1.43 price handle seems to be taking on more significance with each passing day, as the euro vs dollar pair once again failed to clear this solid barrier, which is now becoming something of an insurmountable wall. Yesterday's candle closed the session with an up bar, but with a deep upper shadow and with the high of the day falling just short of the 1.43 level. This price action seems to have been repeated once again today as the US markets open, with an attempt to rise having been thwarted once again, and the question remains, will this level be breached, or will we see a sharp pullback following such a prolonged period of failure. This is much the same technical picture as we are seeing in cable, with an extended period of sideways consolidation, which is now suggesting structural instability in the daily candle chart. For any sustained breakout higher we need to see this level cleared, and this should then provide a substantial platform for a move higher. However, should the move falter and reverse, only a breach of the 1.38 level will confirm that US dollar strength is returning in the currency pair. This seems unlikely at present given the technical picture in the Dollar Index, which still remains heavily bearish.

With no fundamental news in Europe this morning on the economic calendar, the main items are later today in the US, with the CB consumer confidence index, followed by a series of speeches and recorded interviews by various 'heavyweights' including Geithner, Bernanke and Yellan. It seems unlikely that this afternoon will provide anything other than the usual short term volatility to the currency markets. What is actually needed is a dramatic shift in investor risk appetite, and a consequent strong move in equities and currency markets to break the current malaise.

Published on Tue, Jul 28 2009, 13:21 GMT

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Tue, Jul 28 2009, 12:20 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

As the sideways drift of the last few weeks continues, it is increasingly difficult to find anything new to say about cable, either on an intra day basis or indeed longer term, with yesterday's candle adding once again to the congestion in this area. As I have said many times before, unless we see a break and hold above the 1.66 level, accompanied with significant momentum, then until this occurs we need to look for trading opportunities in other pairs. Many of the majors are following a similar pattern at present ( in particular the euro vs dollar) so my advice would be to look to some of the crosses, in particular currency pairs such as the euro yen, pound yen and aussie yen.

The main item of fundamental news on the economic calendar for today is the CB consumer confidence index, due for release in the US later today. This is a sentiment index ( but one of the more important ones) and is forecast at 49.1 this afternoon. The only other item of news this morning was the release of the CBI Realized Sales, which came in worse than expected at -15, confirming that retail sales fell for the third month in a row. Today rounds off with a series of speeches by Treasury Secretary Geithner and Fed Chairman Bernanke, but given the damp squib of last week, it seems unlikely that these speeches will provide anything in the way of hints on policy changes moving forward, so the prospect of any breakout from the current trading range seems remote at present. For the time being we have to wait and be patient.

Published on Tue, Jul 28 2009, 12:20 GMT

Euro Dollar Daily Chart

Mon, Jul 27 2009, 15:09 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The euro vs dollar continues to trade sideways at this level, with Friday completing the full house of five straight days of indecision. The question of course that everyone is asking is whether the US dollar will continue to weaken, with a consequent rise in the euro vs dollar ( amongst others ). From a technical perspective the daily chart is beginning to look weak, as the pair continue to struggle at this level, each day attempting to rise, only to fall back later. Indeed we have seen this once again in trading today, with an early rise in the European session, promptly squashed as the New York session gets under way. However, whilst this may be the first sign of weakness, it has yet to be confirmed, and with all three moving averages providing support below, this is far from the case at present. Only a break below the moving averages, coupled with a break and hold below the 1.38 price handle would confirm this picture, whilst from a fundamental perspective all the talk is of risk appetite and the continued surge in the equity markets, which will of course counter this view entirely. This would seem to be the picture confirmed by the US dollar index which remains stubbornly bearish, with little indication that it is ready to turn just yet.

Published on Mon, Jul 27 2009, 15:09 GMT

US Dollar Index − Daily Chart

Mon, Jul 27 2009, 12:12 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The dollar index continued its inexorable slide lower last week, but ended on Friday with a doji, which seemed to offer some small respite to the recent downwards trend in the US dollar, as the index paused for breath. However, the signs are not good, and we may well see a renewed sell off in the US dollar, with the index plunging lower once again, should risk appetite return in equity markets. The first key technical level is now very close at 78.50, and should this be breached then we may well see a fall further down to the 76 level, and if this fails to hold then a much deeper move could result. With all three moving average now weighing heavily downwards, only a significant shift in investor and market sentiment will provide the necessary brake, to stop a further decline in the dollar index chart. Once again, the signals are not good this morning in early trading, as prices have opened gapped down in early trading, adding further pressure to the already heavily bearish tone.

Published on Mon, Jul 27 2009, 12:12 GMT

USD to CAD Daily Chart

Fri, Jul 24 2009, 15:41 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's wide spread down bar on the usd to cad daily chart, added further momentum to the decline of the usd cad currency pair, as they speed towards our interim target of 1.08 once again. With the 14 day moving average diving below the 40 day moving average, this is adding further pressure to the bearish move lower, and only the interim support at 1.08 now stands in the way of a much deeper move, possible to re-test the 1.05 level in the short term, and parity in the medium term should the US dollar continue what seems to be a terminal decline against other major currencies. However, before we become too complacent, many analysts are now suggesting that we may see a US dollar recovery with a bounce in the medium term as risk appetite for equities falters, with a consequent return to the safe haven status of the US dollar.

With no fundamental news in Canada today, the focus of attention has been in the US and in particular the markets are now waiting for more testimony from FED Chairman Bernanke,who is due to testify, along with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Sheila Bair, on regulatory restructuring before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC.

Published on Fri, Jul 24 2009, 15:41 GMT

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Fri, Jul 24 2009, 14:24 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The pounds to dollars pair continue to flirt with the 1.66 price level, testing and retesting before falling back to close at a lower level, with yesterday's candle yet another in a series of failed attempts to clear this level, closing with a deep upper wick and narrow body. This price level is now pivitol for the currency pair, and only a clear break and hold above will be seens as confirmation that Cable is likley to continue to strengthen against the US dollar. Until this occurs then we have to wait, and for any sustained move lower we need to see a break and hold below the 1.60 price handle. Until then - we have to wait I'm afraid!

The principle item of fundamental news on the economic calendar this morning for Cable, was the relase of the quarterly GDP figures which came in worse than expected at -0.8% against a forecast of -0.3%. Whilst the contraction in the economy was worse than expected is was certainly better than last quarter's -2.4% , but still taking the annual decline to 5.6%. While an improvement on the previous quarter, the figures may indicate that the recovery could take longer than previously had been expected so the Brown/Darling dream team will have to wait for their special brand of fertiliser to produce the green shoots!!! In the US< the markets are now waiting for further testimony from Fed Chariman Ben Bernanke,who is due to testify, along with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Sheila Bair, on regulatory restructuring before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC.

Published on Fri, Jul 24 2009, 14:24 GMT

Euro Dollar Daily Chart

Fri, Jul 24 2009, 13:07 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Following on the back of two doji candles on Tuesday and Wednesday for the euro vs dollar pair, yesterday's price action has reinforced this bearish picture with a shooting star candle which once again failed to breach the 1.43 resistance level which is now becoming increasingly important. As we can see from the daily chart, the euro dollar has now tried to penetrate this level on five separate occasions since early June, and each time has fallen back to close lower in the trading session, with yesterday one of the clearer signals of the pattern. However, it is also very interesting to note that the low of the day found support from the 9 day moving average, suggesting that we now need to wait for this signal to be confirmed in the next few days. For a move higher we MUST see a break and hold above this level, which will then provide a springboard to a move higher, whilst any move lower will only be validated by a hold below the 1.38 price handle.

This morning saw a string of fundamental news items on the economic calendar for Europe, all of which came in better than expected. These included the German and French Flash Manufacturing and Services numbers along with the German IFO business climate index. In the US this afternoon, the main piece of news is the testimony once again by FED Chairman Ben Bernanke who is due to testify, along with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Sheila Bair, on regulatory restructuring before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC. Prior to this we have the University of Michigan ( UoM) consumer sentiment index which is forecast at 65.1 later today.

Published on Fri, Jul 24 2009, 13:07 GMT

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Thu, Jul 23 2009, 13:50 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The small hammer candle that we saw on the daily chart for the usd to cad on Tuesday, failed to validate on Wednesday, with yesterday's candle ending the trading session lower and with small shadows to both top and bottom. However, the speed of the downwards fall has certainly slowed over the last few days, suggesting that we may well see a pause, or some sideways consolidation at this level in due course. With the 9 day e moving average having crossed the 40 day, and with the 14 day average about to do the same, the picture still remain heavily bearish for the currency pair in the short term.

The main fundamental news on the economic calendar for the US has already been released with the weekly Unemployment data coming in marginally worse than expected at 554,000, an increase of 30,000 over last week's figure and above the forecast of 551,000. For Canada the main item of news due shortly is the BOC monetary policy report which is followed shortly afterwards by the BOC press conference 45 minutes later. The press conference is generally split into two halves, the first of which is a pre-prepared statement, which is then followed by press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility. The press conference is audio web cast on the Bank of Canada site.

Published on Thu, Jul 23 2009, 13:50 GMT

USD/JPY Daily Fx Chart

Thu, Jul 23 2009, 11:33 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

There is little more I can add to any of my previous market commentaries regarding the yen to dollar, which I haven't said before! ( but I will try!!). Sadly for us as currency traders, Ben Bernanke's circus failed to deliver the high wire act promised, and instead consisted of a series of pedantry performances with some lack lustre clowns, a performing sea lion, and some geriatric lions. Not what the doctor ordered at all, and as a result yesterday daily chart ended with a long legged doji balancing neatly on the 9 day moving average, and it was no great surprise to see prices head higher in early trading this morning. The 95.50 price handle remains intact, and it seems unlikely that this will be broken, so as traders we must be patient and wait for any trend to become firmly established before committing to any longer term trades. Hopefully we will see some sort of clear signal in the next few weeks.

As for the fundamental news on the economic calendar, the main news for the Japanese yen came overnight with the release of the Trade Balance figures which came in worse than expected at 0.44T against a forecast of 0.51T with exports falling at a slower pace that previously, and suggesting that the worst of the recession may be over. The only other items of fundamental news ar due for release shortly in the US, and these are covered in more detail on the euro to dollar site.

Published on Thu, Jul 23 2009, 11:33 GMT

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Thu, Jul 23 2009, 11:01 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The pounds to dollars pair are still perched below the parapet of 1.66, peering over the edge occasionally, but showing little inclination to leap over, and not helped by Bernanke's two day testimony which provided little in the way of excitement or direction for the markets as a whole or for the pound vs dollar in particular. Yesterday's candle was yet another in a series of dojis, on this occasion with a deep lower shadow, suggesting that we may see prices rise today, with the low of the day finding some support from the 14 day moving average. However, the significance of the moving averages is greatly reduced at present, due to the consolidation of the last few weeks, and until these begin to unwind, their effect will be limited. Until we see a break and hold above this key level, with some clear water below, then it is impossible to trade the bull side with any degree of confidence, and should the US dollar suddenly rediscover some support, it would not be a surprise to see a fall from this region, however, given the state of the dollar index this seems unlikely at present.

This morning's fundamental news items on the economic calendar for the UK pound saw both Retail Sales and BBA mortgage approvals come in better then expected, at 1.2% vs 0.4% and 35.2 vs 32.3 respectively, and it is symptomatic of the markets at present, that neither of these good news stories generated any response from Sterling, perhaps a negative signal in itself ? The news later today in the US, centres on the weekly Unemployment Claims, and Existing Home Sales which are due out during the New York trading session, of which the first is likely to have more impact on the pound vs dollar. More details can be found on the euro to dollar site. My trading advice for today remains the same as for most of the other majors, and that is to take a wait and see approach - if we do see a break above the 1.66 level, then we can take advantage, otherwise patient is the best option!

Published on Thu, Jul 23 2009, 11:01 GMT

US Dollar Index − Daily Chart

Thu, Jul 23 2009, 09:53 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The poor old US dollar found little support from Ben Bernanke, following his two days of testimony, and the FED circus has now rolled out of town, leaving behind the flotsam of a flat party and little in the way of a lasting memory. Yesterday's candle on the dollar index chart reflected this sentiment, ending the session down on the day and with a small doji, which once again added to the general downwards slide for the dollar against all the other major currencies, as we head inexorably towards the 78.50 price handle which seems certain to be breached with the prospect of a much deeper move in the medium term, possibly as low as 71 in the medium term, should equity markets pick up their momentum of the last few weeks once again. Technically there is nothing on the daily or indeed weekly chart to suggest otherwise, with all three moving averages now weighing heavily down, with the weekly chart paiting an even worse picture. Whilst nothing in trading is a foregone conclusion the demise of the dollar seems almost certain in the short term, unless there are some shocks in store in the fundamental news over the next few months.

Published on Thu, Jul 23 2009, 09:53 GMT

Euro Dollar Daily Chart

Thu, Jul 23 2009, 09:15 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

I was hoping that Ben Bernanke's two testimony would provide us with some much needed momentum in the euro vs dollar currency pair, but unfortunately this was not to be, and yesterday's candle was a re-run of Tuesdays, ending the session as a doji of indecision, as the pair struggle to break above the 1.43 level. Technically the chart looks bullish, with all three moving averages now beginning to turn higher once again, as they unwind from their tight bunching of the last few weeks, and with the strong consolidation now offering a good platform for a move higher, this is the direction I would favour at this stage. However, until we see a break and hold above the 1.43 level, then we cannot be certain, so my suggestion for today is to continue to take a wait and see approach - it this does occur in due course, and provided it is supported with all three moving averages, then at this stage we could consider longer term trend trades. Until then, we need to wait for the breakout to occur.

The fundamental news on the economic calendar is very much 'business as usual' today, and I have covered all the main items for you on the euro to dollar site. The key one this afternoon will be the weekly unemployment claims, which if worse than expected could help the US dollar should investors take fright and look for the safe havens once again.

Published on Thu, Jul 23 2009, 09:15 GMT

Euro To Dollar − Fundamental News

Thu, Jul 23 2009, 08:42 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The Bernanke circus has now rolled out of town, with very little reaction to the two days of testimony, which was disappointing in many ways, as the sideways congestion and consolidation of the euro to dollar pair now look set to continue through the summer lull, as traders and investors lose interest in thin market conditions. Today we are back on the road with the usual round of fundamental news on the economic calendar, starting with the European current account figures which have just been released, coming in better than expected at -1.2B against a forecast of -3.6B, but which has done little to provide any impetus to the euro this morning so far. At the same time we have the Italian retail sales, and even they have thrown in the towel and stopped shopping ( very unusual for us!!) coming in with a flat performance at 0.0% against a forecast of 0.2%, so worse than expected. The only item of fundamental news for Europe come later in the day with the release of the NBB business climate figures, a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, services and trade-related firms which then provide a view of the economy - any number below 0 indicates a worsening picture whilst a figure above suggests one that is improving - the number for this afternoon is forecast at -21.6 against a previous -23.6, so a slightly improving picture overall if this is met.

For the US market, we have two important numbers up later today, the first of which is the weekly Unemployment claims, and the second being Existing Home Sales. The first of these is forecast at 551,000 against a previous of 522,000, so figures would seem to be worsening, with the second forecast at 4.82M against a previous of 4.77M, which in contrast would seem to be improving, assuming the numbers are achieved. Whilst both these key items of news are keenly watched, it is the first that is likely to have the greater impact on the euro to dollar today.

Published on Thu, Jul 23 2009, 08:42 GMT

Currency Trading Majors Pairs Dollar Index

Wed, Jul 22 2009, 13:49 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's price action in the US dollar index, was of course dominated by the fundamental backdrop, as FED Chairman Ben Bernanke began his two day testimony on his twice a year monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC, and no doubt we will see more of the same today, as he concludes his two day report. The daily candle on the dollar index chart, ended the session as a small hammer, suggesting that Bernanke's comments provided some much needed support for the ailing US dollar, although this was far from emphatic, although from a technical perspective we may expect a small bounce in the dollar today as a result. In the medium term, this signal is certainly not strong enough to suggest that we have hit the bottom for the dollar, and whilst we may see a short term move higher, it seems unlikley at this stage that this will be anything other than the market taking a breather before moving lower, unless of course his statement today is dramatically different to the tone of yesterday's comments, which seems unlikely.

Published on Wed, Jul 22 2009, 13:49 GMT

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Wed, Jul 22 2009, 11:41 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The bearish 'shooting star' candle that we saw on Monday, duly delivered in yesterday's trading session with the yen to dollar currency pair ending the trading session with a wide spread down bar, as the two safe haven currencies continue to slug it out in this narrow trading range. Technically yesterday's candle was inconclusive, as the high of the day found resistance at the 14 day moving average, and support from the 9 day moving average below, so it is hard to draw any meaningful conclusions from these indicators. With Bernanke waiting in the wings for day two of his testimony, my advice for today is to sit on the sidelines once again, particularly as we have the Japanese trade balance figures due for release during the Asian trading session. This data indicates the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month, and the forecast this time is for a figure of 0.51T against a previous of 0.22T, and as an important piece of fundamental news on the economic calendar, could well introduce further volatility to an already nervous market.

Published on Wed, Jul 22 2009, 11:41 GMT

USD to CAD Daily Chart

Wed, Jul 22 2009, 11:17 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's bullish hammer candle on the daily usd to cad chart, may be the signal for a short term reversal higher, following the sharp sell off in the pair in the last few days, but as always we need to wait for this signal to be confirmed in due course. From a technical perspective it is interesting to note that the low of the day found support at previous interim support level created in early June, where four tests at this price handle were subsequently followed by a strong move higher. Whilst I am not suggesting that this may happen here, it is certainly interesting that the move lower has stalled here once again, and we now need to be careful in placing further short trades until this signal is either confirmed with a move higher, or alternatively ignored as we continue lower. With all three moving averages pointing sharply lower, and with the 9 day having crossed the 40 day moving average, this seems the more likely at present.

Following the sharp sell off in the US dollar, we could see a pause point here, particularly following the rate decision yesterday from the BOC, followed by Bernanke's testimony which continues in the US later today. In addition, we are now waiting for the Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales figures for Canada, both of which are 'red flag' items of fundamental news on the economic calendar, which are forecast at 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. Finally we have the oil inventory numbers from the EIA which although released as a US data set, tend to have more impact on the Loonie, due to the country's status as a large oil producer in the global market.

Published on Wed, Jul 22 2009, 11:17 GMT

Pound vs Dollar Daily Chart

Wed, Jul 22 2009, 10:42 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The pounds to dollars currency pair was one of the beneficiaries of Ben Bernake's testimony yesterday, as his comments provided some support for the battered US dollar, which triggered a sell off in the UK pound, with Cable closing the trading session with a wide spread down bar and reversing the gains of Monday. Once again the 1.66 key level which is now gaining in importance with each passing day, proved to be the stumbling block to any move higher, this time helped by the FED Chairman, who concludes his two day 'mid-term' report later today in Washington, with all market players now watching and waiting for any surprises.

Technically the pound vs dollar pair remain range bound, with the three moving averages tightly bunched and providing little in the way of meaningful analysis, and until we see a break and hold above the level outlined above, or alternatively a breach of the 1.60 support level now in place, then we seem destined to continue to trade in this narrow channel. If there are any surprises later today then this could spook the markets, and with CIT on the verge of collapse allied to several banks reporting later, this could be the catalyst for some volatile price action.

In the UK this morning there were two pieces of fundamental news on the economic calendar, namely the MPC minutes from the recent BOE rate decision which showed voting to be as forecast at 0-0-9, and secondly the CBI Industrial Order Expectations which came in far worse than expected at -59 against a forecast of -46, and indeed worse that last month's figures, so the green shoots will have to wait a while longer I'm afraid ( poor old Gordon)

Published on Wed, Jul 22 2009, 10:42 GMT

Euro vs Dollar Daily Chart

Wed, Jul 22 2009, 10:21 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

All the currency markets waited nervously yesterday as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke began his two day, 'mid term' report on the current state of the US economy, and the direction for FED policies in the short to medium term. Yesterday's candle on the euro vs dollar daily chart reflected this sense of anxiety as the US dollar found some support from Bernanke, ending the session with a bearish hammer pattern, a small body and deep upper wick, suggesting that we may see some reversal from recent euro strength, and a consequent fall in the pair. As always we need to wait for this signal to be confirmed in the next few days, and any reversal from here may only be a short term trend, with the euro dollar taking a short breather before heading higher. If this bearish signal is to carry any weight for our trading, then we need to see a break and hold below the strong resistance now in place, and only a move below the 1.38 price handle would be sufficient to confirm that the recent trend higher of the euro dollar is now over.

However what seems more likely ( give the state of the dollar index) is that any move lower may only be temporary, and may well find support either from the moving averages immediately below, or alternatively from the solid platform now in place at 1.41.Much will depend on Bernanke's second day, and whether investors are seduced by his words into accepting risk once again with a consequent fall in the US dollar, or alternatively will they become increasingly alarmed, spooked either by the banks reporting today or the possible collapse of CIT. Either way we should find out later this morning as the New York session gets into full swing - in the mean time, the euro vs dollar will sit and wait!

Published on Wed, Jul 22 2009, 10:21 GMT

Euro To Dollar − Fundamental News

Tue, Jul 21 2009, 13:51 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Once again today, trading in the euro to dollar will be dominated by the second day of testimony for FED Chairman Ben Bernanke as he completes the mid year summary on the US economy and monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC, later this afternoon. This is the centre piece of the fundamental news on the economic calendar for today for the euro dollar, and which will once again cause increased volatility and nervousness in the markets as his statements and comments are analysed for any clues as to future policy from the FED, with yesterday's statement providing a modicum of support for the US dollar.

Moving to other items of fundamental news for today, this morning in Europe so far we have seem French consumer spending rise, with the figures coming in at 1.4% against a forecast of 0.4%, and therefore showing significant improvement from last time which reported at -0.2% month on month. In stark contrast to this good news story, the Industrial New Orders data came in far worse than expected at -0.2% against a forecast of 1.9%, so altogether a mixed picture for Europe so far today. We now wait for Bernanke later today, along with the HPI housing data, and oil inventories, which whilst important will be overshadowed by the FED Chairman once again.

Published on Tue, Jul 21 2009, 13:51 GMT

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Tue, Jul 21 2009, 12:35 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The yen to dollar currency pair continues to flirt with the strong resistance level above, with yesterday's candle probing this area before closing with a deep upper shadow and small body, in a shooting star candle, which now looks weak, and suggesting a possible reversal once again. As outlined in last week's market commentary, the dollar yen is now looking unstable and any trading in the pair should be restricted to intraday trades only, as the competing fortunes of two heavyweight safe haven currencies are now slugging it out once again in the market. Yesterday was of course a national holiday in Japan, so thin trading volumes added to the general nervousness surrounding the pair, and with Bernanke testifying for two days in the US, this could tip the balance in favour of the Japanese yen. Technically the resistance level at the $95 price handle still look strong, and any upwards move would need to have considerable momentum to penetrate this completely, so for today we need to take a wait and see approach for the start of the proceedings in the US.

Published on Tue, Jul 21 2009, 12:35 GMT

USD to CAD Daily Chart

Tue, Jul 21 2009, 12:11 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's down candle on the usd to cad daily chart, reinforced once again the bearish picture for the pair, with bar closing with a narrow body and small lower shadow, suggesting that there may still be some US dollar bulls in the market despite the overall picture. With all three moving averages pointing lower and with the 9 day now crossing the 40 day moving average, these indicators once again confirm the bearish tone. This may well continue as we move into an interesting period for the usd vs cad in the next few hours, firstly with an interest rate decision for the BOC due shortly, and then with two days of testimony in the US by FED chairman Ben Bernanke, so expect some volatility and plenty of trading opportunities both today and tomorrow.

If we take the first of these items of fundamental news, it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low today, based on the strengthening Canadian dollar which could threaten a recovery that has been stronger than policy makers expected. The affect of Bernanke's statements over the next two days are less clear cut, as the markets now wait for his testimony to start. As always it will be wide ranging and cover all the economic and fiscal policies of the FED, and if the statements are viewed as a positive outlook for the broader economy, then this could weaken the US dollar still further, sending the usd vs cad down to retest the 1.08 level once again, with the potential for a much deeper move in the medium term. Whether we reach parity again is debatable, but the next two days will be seminal ones for the usd vs cad in the short to medium term.

Published on Tue, Jul 21 2009, 12:11 GMT

Pound vs Dollar Daily Chart

Tue, Jul 21 2009, 11:23 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's wide spread up candle for the pounds to dollars pair, provided further evidence that the UK pound remains determined to try to breach the 1.66 level, as it creeps ever higher in small steps on the daily chart, and probably confirming that the shooting star candle of three weeks ago can be ignored as a failed signal. With the 9 day moving average breaking free from the recent bunching of the moving averages, we may now see yet another attempt to breach this key level, which has poved to be a difficult obstacle to date, however, the fate of Cable, and of the US dollar will now largely depend on the comments and tone from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke as he gives two days of testimony in Washington, on the US economy and monetary policy moving forward. As we can see from the dollar index chart, the US dollar is heavily bearish, and any positive or upbeat statements from Bernanke could tip it over the edge and into free fall, as investors rediscover their appetite for risk and rush headlong into the equities markets, with a consequent sell off in the US dollar. This remains to be seen as the markets now wait for the New York open and the start of his opening comments and remarks. With the pounds to dollars pair now perched at the 1.66 level, the next two days could prove decisive in dictating the future direction for the dollar vs pound currency pair.

Published on Tue, Jul 21 2009, 11:23 GMT

US Dollar Index − Daily Candle Chart

Tue, Jul 21 2009, 10:57 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Monday's wide spread down candle on the US dollar index, did little to lift the gloomy picture for the US dollar, adding further to the heavily bearish picture of the last few weeks, further emphasized by the gapped down opening of Monday morning which simply reinforces this view. With all three moving averages now beginning to unwind, and the 9 day movong average turning sharply lower, there seems to be only one direction for the US dollar at present, which is now heading South, fast! The depth and speed of the move lower will largely depend on the next two days of testimony by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and should his comments and tone be relatively bullish overall, then this could trigger a further return of risk appetite with a consequent uplift in equities to the detriment of the poor old US dollar. From a technical perspective, if the 78.50 price level is breached, which now seems imminent, then the next barrier level is an intermediate one at 76, and should this fail to provide any support then a much deeper move should be expected back to retest support in the 71 - 72 price region in due course. The fate of the US dollar in the short term now hangs in the balance as Bernanke prepares to speak.

Published on Tue, Jul 21 2009, 10:57 GMT

Euro vs Dollar Daily Chart

Tue, Jul 21 2009, 10:25 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's up bar on the daily chart for the euro vs dollar, added further weight to the prospect of a breakout above the key 1.43 resistance level, which is now firmly in sight, with the candle having closed the trading session with as a wide up bar and a small upper wick. With the 9 day moving average having crosed above both the 14 day and 40 day averages, this would seem to confirm this analysis, but much will now depend on the fundamental picture which is painted by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke over the next two days, as he gives his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee in DC.

Bernanke's testimony will be on past, current, and future Fed monetary policy (interest rates), the state of the US economy, inflation/deflation, the housing and employment sectors, the deficit, sovereign debt monetization, future stimulus measures and the prospects of a sustainable recovery on Wall St, and as always will be closely watched for any signals and clues. The testimony usually comes in 2 parts as follows : first he reads a prepared statement (a text version is made available on the Fed's website at the start), then the committee will hold a question and answer session. Since the questions are not known beforehand they can create unscripted moments that can often lead to heavy market volatility, and the next two days of testimony could set the tone for the markets for the next few months.With no news in Europe today, this is the main focus for the euro vs dollar today, and the currency pair will no doubt drift until the New York open and the start of the session in Washington.

Published on Tue, Jul 21 2009, 10:25 GMT

Euro To Dollar − Fundamental News

Tue, Jul 21 2009, 06:38 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

With no fundamental news on the economic calendar in Europe today, all eyes will be focused on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke later today as he begins a two day testimony to the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee in DC. Bernanke's testimony will be on past, current, and future Fed monetary policy (interest rates), the state of the US economy, inflation and deflation, the housing and employment sectors, the deficit, sovereign debt monetization, future stimulus measures and the prospects for a sustainable recovery on Wall Street - so not much of interest!!!!

As always all the markets, will be waiting and watching, even more so today with the lack of other significant news, and therefore any reactions to the testimony could be volatile and unpredictable. If you remember it was back in the middle of March that Ben Bernanke's comments, stopped the fall in equities and reversed the fortunes of the US dollar as a result. Whether you believe the green shoots theory, the equity markets have been in euphoric mood ever since, trading largely on sentiment and a good news feel, rather than on any tangible results or key fundamentals, with the FED supporting this 'bubble' with upbeat and positive statements, along with an upwards revision of the growth and inflation expectations. However, not all the members are on board the 'optimism train', with both Ron Paul and Jim Bunning being two dissenting voices. The key thing for today and tomorrow will be whether the overall sentiment of the testimony is more on the positive or negative side in terms of the future outlook for the US economy, with most of the markets taking their cue from his comments.

Published on Tue, Jul 21 2009, 06:38 GMT

Currency Trading Majors Pairs USD/CAD

Mon, Jul 20 2009, 19:03 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Thursday and Friday's candle on the usd to cad daily chart, provided a pause point, as the market took a breather following the steep falls of earlier in the week, with Friday closing as a narrow spread down candle. The bearish picture remains firmly in place for the usd to cad, and with all three moving averages pointing firmly lower, we should see the currency pair continue to fall this week, providing plenty of trading opportunities on the short side. In the short term we should see a re-test of the 1.08 price level, where the move stalled before, and this may well re-occur. Moreover, should this level be breached this time around, then 1.05 becomes the next target which then opens the way to a move back to parity in due course.

For the Canadian dollar today, we have had two items of fundamental news on the economic calendar today, namely the Foreign Securities Purchases, closely followed by Wholesale sales. The first of these is the total value of stocks, bonds and money market assets purchased by foreigners during the month and indicates the level of demand for the currency abroad, which has come in at a staggering 18.89bn versus a target of 7.17bn, representing a huge vote of confidence in Canada and the Canadian Dollar. The second item of fundamental news was the Wholesale Sales numbers which too came in better than expected at -0.3% against a forecast of -2.0%, the decline being the smallest in 8 months of falls. As this is considered a leading indicator the better than expected number as positive for the Canadian Dollar. The only item of fundamental news on the economic calendar for the US was the CB Index which too came in better than expected at 0.7% against a forecast of 0.5% and taken by analysts as an indication that the worst of this slump may be coming to an end. If this view is accepted by the market this would further fuel risk appetite with a consequent move away from the US Dollar.

Published on Mon, Jul 20 2009, 19:03 GMT

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Mon, Jul 20 2009, 18:41 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The yen to dollar pair continued to validate the tweezer bottom outlined in last week's market commentary, pushing higher once again on Friday, and ending the trading session with an up candle which found support from the 9 day moving average, but which failed to penetrate the 14 day average indicating the fragile nature of the daily chart at present. As we approach the strong resistance above, I would advocate extreme caution in trading the dollar yen higher at this stage, as any further move will require a huge effort if any significant progress is to be made, and in my opinion we may well see this move falter in the short term, with a collapse back lower once again. The 40 day moving average may well prove pivotal, and the Japanese markets closed today for a national holiday, I would suggest you step aside from trading the dollar yen, and look elsewhere for other trading opportunities in other currency pairs, which have a lower level of risk and better profit potential. For the US dollar, the fundamental news today is very thin, with only one item on the economic calendar, namely the CB Leading Index, a composite of old data which has little market impact as a result.

Published on Mon, Jul 20 2009, 18:41 GMT

Euro vs Dollar Daily Chart

Mon, Jul 20 2009, 18:27 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Friday's candle on the euro vs dollar daily chart, provided little in the way of anything new for us to consider from a technical point of view, ending the trading session as a small spinning top candle, very simple to that of Thursday, but this time with a red body, rather than blue. Once again prices remained firmly in the 1.38 to 1.43 price channel, and until we see a breach of one of the levels, then the sideways consolidation seems likely to continue further as we move deeper in the summer lull, with thin trading volumes and a general malaise in the markets as we wait for the catalyst to spark them into life. This is unlikely to come today as we only have two items of fundamental news on the economic calendar, both of which are relatively minor, and therefore unlikely to have any great impact on market direction. We seem destined for yet another day of listless price moves in a relatively tight trading range.

Published on Mon, Jul 20 2009, 18:27 GMT

Euro vs Dollar Fundamental News

Mon, Jul 20 2009, 18:18 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

With little in the way of fundamental news on the economic calendar, for either Europe or the US today, trading in the euro to dollar, may well be characterized by yet more sideways movement and random price action based on rumour and speculation. The only news of any substance in Europe this morning is the German PPI index, which measure the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is generally considered to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation or deflation - when manufacturers charge more for goods then higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer, and vica versa in the current deflationary background. The forecast for this morning is for a figure of 0.5% against a previous of 0.0%. The only other item of fundamental news today for the currency pair, comes later in the trading session in the US, with the release of the CB Leading Index. This is a curious piece of news, which has muted impact on the financial markets, as it is a composite of all that has gone before, being composed of 10 other data sets which are then consolidated into this one index - so in essence the news is very old and already in the public domain, so there is little to be gleaned by the markets. All in all a very quiet day on the fundamental news front for the start of the week.

Published on Mon, Jul 20 2009, 18:18 GMT

Pound vs Dollar Daily Chart

Mon, Jul 20 2009, 18:02 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Following Thursday's weak spinning top candle on the pound to dollars daily chart, Friday's down candle came as no great surprise, since the spinning top is often the signal of a price reversal, which is then subsequently confirmed the following day. In this case I was expecting a three candle formation, indicative of an evening star formation, with an up bar, spinning top and subsequent down bar to complete the formation. Whilst this did occur on Friday with a down candle, it was far from convincing, ending the session with a deep lower shadow which found support from the intertwined moving averages below. Whilst it is difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions from these technical indicators, it does suggest that there is a modicum of support at this price level for the pair, and with the deep wick below we may see a rise in the pound dollar price today as a result. Longer term we need to see a break and hold above the 1.66 price point, if we are to achieve any meaningful move higher. A break below the 1.60 price region would suggest that the consolidation has broken down, and that cable is likely to fall as a result.

There is very little in the way of key fundamental news on the economic calendar today with just two items on a very quiet Monday of trading. The first of these is the Preliminary M4 money supply figures, due out in the UK this morning and expected to show an increase to 0.4% from 0.2% last time. This data measures the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks, and should the figure be better than the expected is generally good news for the home currency, in this case the UK pound. This is the first of two releases of this data with the second following 14 days later - of the two this has more significance in the market. The only other item today of fundamental news is the CB leading index, a composite index of old data, which therefore tends to have little impact on currency markets or the pound dollar pair.

Published on Mon, Jul 20 2009, 18:02 GMT

FXstreet.com

Technical

Currency Trading Majors Pairs

Forex Analysis GBP/USD

Forex Analysis Euro vs Dollar

Fundamental Forex News for Euro to Dollar

USD Index

Yen To Dollar Weekly Chart

Euro Dollar − Fixed Odds Trade

Forex Analysis − USD to CAD

Forex Analysis − Pounds To Dollars

Fundamental Forex Analysis − Euro to Dollar

USD Index

Pound To Dollars Daily Chart

Euro vs Dollar

Forex Analysis USD to CAD

USD Index

Forex Trading Analysis for GBP/USD

Forex Analysis for Euro vs Dollar

Binary Trade with GBP/USD

Forex Trading Analysis for Euro vs Dollar

Forex Analysis for USD/CAD

Forex Trading Analysis Pounds to Dollars

Forex Trading Analysis Euro vs Dollar 1 Sept 2009

Forex Analysis USD/JPY

Forex Trading Analysis for GBP/USD

Forex Analysis USD vs CAD

Forex Analysis Euro vs Dollar

Binary Trade Strategy for USD to CAD

Forex Analysis for USD Index

Forex Trading Analysis for USD/CAD

Forex Analysis for Euro vs Dollar

Forex Analysis for GBP/USD 27 Aug 2009

Forex Trading Analysis for GBP/USD

Forex Trading Analysis for USD/CAD

Forex Trading Analysis for Euro vs Dollar 26 Aug 2009

USD Index

Forex Trading Analysis GBP/USD 25 August 2009

Forex Analysis Usd to Cad 24 August 2009

Forex Trading Analysis Euro vs Dollar 24 August 2009

Fundamental Forex Analysis − EUR/USD

Forex Analysis for GBP/USD 24 Aug 2009

Forex Trading Analysis USD/JPY

Forex Trading Analysis Usd to Cad 24 Aug 2009

Forex Analysis for Euro vs Dollar 24 Aug 2009

Forex Analysis USD Index

Forex Trading Analysis for USD/CAD

Forex Trading Analysis

Forex Trading Analysis for GBP/USD

Charting Analysis − Euro vs Dollar

Forex Chart Analysis USD/CAD

Forex Analysis for USD Index

Forex Trading Analysis for USD/JPY

Forex Trading Analysis for GBP/USD

Forex Analysis Euro vs Dollar

Forex Analysis − USD to CAD

USD Index

USD Index

Forex Chart Analysis − Pound vs Dollar

Forex Analysis − USD to CAD

Forex Analysis for Euro vs Dollar

Fundamental Forex Analysis for Euro to Dollar 17 August 2009

Binary Betting Trading Aussie Dollar

Forex Trading Analysis − Pounds To Dollars

Forex Analysis − Euro vs Dollar

Fundamental Forex Analysis − EURUSD

USD index

Pound vs Dollar − Daily Candle Chart

Euro vs Dollar − Daily Chart

Euro to Dollar − Fundamental News

Euro vs Dollar − Daily Candle Chart

US Dollar Index − Daily Chart

Euro Dollar Fundamental News

USD to CAD − Daily Chart

US Dollar Index − Daily Chart

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Pounds To Dollars − GBP/USD

Currency Trading Majors Pairs − Euro vs Dollar

Currency Trading Euro To Dollar

GBP/USD − Daily Chart