September 30, 2009

The Euro is currently trading at 1.4666.The ECB’s lending decline from €442.241 billion to €75.241 billion has given some stimulus to the blueback as it rebounded from the low of 1.4525 low and crossed the resistance of 1.4645 to the high of 1.4675. before traders head off to the bullpen, we suggest taking a look at the major indicators which suggest a bearish run in the offing!

The EMA is showing a weakening bullish trend which may signal a trend reversal not too far away, further supported by a bearish crossover formed by the MACD line, which is cutting the signal line from above. It is likely to see selling pressure in the days to come, with bear domination clearly visible since the 22nd of September, as the pair moved out of the overbought zone entering the normal price zone. Since then, the RSI is continuously declining, currently oscillating in the 56-58 range compared to 74 around the 15th of September. It has already breached the center line of the Bollinger bands on the 4 hour chart several times, with a bearish engulfing pattern. Expect a target of 1.445 if the support level of 1.450 is broken by next week’s end, from where it could take support and give something to bulls to cheer about.

 EURUSD