As expected the reserve bank of India cut the cash reserve ratio by 0.25% and left the interest rates unchanged. There was no need to be disappointed as consumer price inflation is still very high. The RBI’s message to the UPA government is clear first deliver and then we will cut interest rates and do you wish. The RBI will not get swayed by the UPA’s government all talk and no implementation. Anyways rupee yesterday weakened after the RBI meeting. The closure of banks in USA due to hurricane “Sandy” had reduced dollar inflows and added to rupee weakness. From today dollar flows will be regular and we should see the rupee gain. Technically rupee is still bearish. The impact of hurricane “sandy” will not be any in India.
Trading strategy For the very large traders and high risk traders
- USD/INR NOVEMBER: sell around 54.70-55.80 stop loss 55.50 target 53.75-53.15 for three weeks time.
- EURO/INR NOVEMBER: Sell euro/inr around 70.75-70.80 stop loss 71.02 target 69.96-69.30 or sell below 69.9025 stop loss 70.1550 target 69.5575-69.2525
- GBP/INR NOVEMBER: Buy only if gbp/inr trades over 87.2700 for 87.5450.
- JPY/INR NOVEMBER: Buy only if yen/inr trades over 68.4500 for 68.7200-68.9600 stop loss 68.2500
US-DOLLAR – INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR) NOVEMBER – (CURRENT PRICE 54.3000)
Bullish over 54.1725 with 54.5575-54.7675-55.2525 as price target
Bearish below 54.0100 with 53.8675 and 53.4275 as price target
Neutral Zone: 54.0100-54.1175
BREAK POINT: - 54.4575
- Usd/inr can rise to 54.7650 and 55.1325 as long as it trades over 54.40
- A daily close over 54.45 on Friday and Monday can result in 56.00 being tested in the short term.
EURO-INDIA RUPEE (EUR/INR) NOVEMBER – (CURRENT PRICE 70.2700)
Bullish over 70.2250 with 70.5500 and 71.1225 as price target
Bearish below 70.0850 with 69.8450-69.3000 as price target
Neutral Zone: 70.0850-70.2250
BREAK POINT: 70.2250
- There is a technical congestion between 70.5500 and 70.6875. Euro/Inr needs to break this zone to target 71.81. As long as euro/inr trades below 70.55-70.6875 zone upside will be limited.
UK POUND -INDIA RUPEE (GBP/INR) NOVEMBER – (CURRENT PRICE 87.1725)
Bullish over 87.2700 with 87.5450 and 88.2450 as price target
Bearish below 87.0200 with 86.8950 and 86.6350 as price target
Neutral Zone: 87.0200-87.2700
BREAK POINT: 87.2700
- Cable needs to trade over 87.2700 to target 87.5400-87.9600. Key support is at 86.8200 and as long as cable trades over 86.8200 downside risk will be limited.
JAPANESE YEN -INDIA RUPEE (JPY/INR) NOVEMBER – (CURRENT PRICE 68.3025)
Bullish over 68.2500 with 68.4850 and 69.7975 as price target
Bearish below 68.0900 with 67.7300 and 67.3300 as price target
Neutral Zone: 68.0900-68.2500
BREAK POINT: - 68.2500
- There is a technical congestion between 68.2500 and 68.4800 and yen needs to break this zone to target 69.1325
Happy profitable trading & Trade without emotions