Commentary

HEADLINE: Global factors to dictate Indian Rupee

September exports numbers and trade numbers yesterday come on the lower side of expectations. This has already been factored in by the currency markets and did not have any effect on the markets. There is expectation that the proposed “General Anti Avoidance Rule” (GAAR) and retrospective tax on foreign corporations will be withdrawn soon. This will result in more gains for the Indian rupee. Global factors will have a greater effect on the rupee than domestic factors. There is speculation that more fiscal measures could be announced as early as next week. This will prevent traders from going long on the weekend.


Trading strategy For the very large traders and high risk traders

USD/INR OCTOBER: Sell on rise with a stop loss of over 53.40
EURO/INR OCTOBER: Buy only if euro trades over 68.40 for 68.65-69.15
GBP/INR OCTOBER: Buy as near to 84.10 stop loss 83.80 for 85.00
JPY/INR OCTOBER: Sell only rise with a stop loss over 68.02 for next week


TECHNICAL VIEW

US-DOLLAR – INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR) OCTOBER – (CURRENT PRICE 52.8300)

Bullish over 53.0250 with 53.2350-53.7600 as price target
Bearish below 52.9650 with 52.6750 and 52.3675 as price target
Neutral Zone: 52.9650-53.1650

BREAK POINT: - 52.9650

  • Rupee can fall to 52.4525- and 51.8875 by next week as long as it trades below 53.7600

  • Investors can sell December futures in small lots at current prices and on every 0.50 paisa rise till 56.50 with a price target of 50.25

EURO-INDIA RUPEE (EUR/INR) OCTOBER – (CURRENT PRICE 68.2750)

Bullish over 68.4450 with 68.7650-69.0250 as price target
Bearish below 68.2250 with 68.0225-67.6050 as price target
Neutral Zone: 68.2250-68.4450

BREAK POINT: 68.2250

  • Euro/Inr needs can fall to 67.60 as long as it trades below 67.90

  • There will be sellers only below 68.2250

UK POUND -INDIA RUPEE (GBP/INR) OCTOBER – (CURRENT PRICE 84.6275)

Bullish over 84.8250 with 85.3600 and 85.7825 as price target
Bearish below 84.4800 with 84.1975-83.8850 as price target
Neutral Zone: 84.4800-84.8250

BREAK POINT: 84.9250

  • Cable can consolidate in 83.90-85.50 wider range in short term. Another wave of selling will be there below 83.90

JAPANESE YEEN -INDIA RUPEE (JPY/INR) OCTOBER – (CURRENT PRICE 67.3700)

Bullish over 67.6750 with 67.9200 and 68.1200 as price target
Bearish below 67.4800 with 67.1225 and 66.9200 as price target
Neutral Zone: 67.4800-67.6750

BREAK POINT: - 67.5200

  • Yen/inr needs to break 67.5300 else it will fall to 67.0200 and 66.7600

  • Key long term support is at 66.9575 and there will be a technical break down only below 66.9575

Happy profitable trading & Trade without emotions