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Key Levels for EUR/USD

Wed, Apr 2 2008, 19:58 GMT
by Andrei Pehar

fxKnight.com


According to insiders, the ECB has supposedly pledged to "protect" the Euro from rising above 1.60 against the US Dollar, though for now it has shown difficulty sustaining levels above 1.59 (perhaps precisely due to this rumor).  Where the EUR/USD heads next depends largely upon what happens at the key levels it currently finds itself sitting upon.

1.5656 represents the intersection of the weekly pivot, as well as both the 50 and 200 moving averages.  We also have the daily central pivot providing support at 1.5609, and the S1 pivot below that at 1.5534  Looking above, we find resistance waiting at 1.5685, 1.5760, and 1.5836  The technicals suggest it is time for a cooling (as evidenced by the double top on the daily chart), meanwhile the fundamentals seem to suggest a resilient European economy (led by Germany) and further troubles ahead for the United States.

Overall, there is a strong range between 1.5757 and 1.5380 which has been in place for 4 weeks now, and all longer-term Fibonacci moves have now reached their logical conclusions.  Recommendation is to continue to trade the range, playing close attention the support and resistance levels inside, until we see a break outside confirmed with a re-test (resistance becomes support, and vice-versa).

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