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Will the Swiss Expand Resent Losses on Carry Trades?

Mon, Jul 28 2008, 10:54 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

Fundamental

The surprising U.S results on Friday triggered a positive reaction on Wall Street building some support for the greenback. On the other hand, in the last few days we are experiencing an increase in the short side interest ahead of the US payroll due on Friday. The vulnerability of the USD is still intact as we continue to experience the burden of the credit crunch and traders are likely to follow closely the data in the week ahead in order to see if Friday’s results were a one-off phenomena. Weak job data might trigger further sells on the pear. Renewed risk appetite might carry this pair further up, nevertheless if the bears come in, we might experience an increased pressure on the selling side.

Technical

The momentum and the RSI are in a major bearish trend but we see some divergence in the minor trend as the momentum broke the zero line and pointing upward. The MACD is after a bullish cross when the fast line is about to break the zero line. A break of the zero line will provide a strong signal for a further upward trend. The prices are trading above the parabolic SAR and broke the 20 and 50 MA lines but the 50 days MA is still pointing down. The Bollinger bands are close indicating a possible expanded move of the prices after drifting a bit sideways in the last few months.

USD/CHF: over-all trend is in a breaish direction

USD/CHF: over the past 4-5 months the pair is in a range

USD/CHF: over the past few days the pair has been in a bullish direction

Published on  Mon, Jul 28 2008, 11:18 GMT