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Emergence of yen could weaken the greenback

Mon, Jun 30 2008, 10:03 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.


Long signalShort signal
Buy a break of resistance level at 106.45Sell a break of support level at 105.00
USD/JPYBuy a break of resistance level at 107.20Sell a break of support level at 104.45
Buy a bounce at 105.00Sell a failure of breaking the resistance 106.45


Fundamental

The yen rose, paring its biggest quarterly decline against the euro in five years, after Moody's Investors Service raised Japan's local-currency debt rating.
The yen pared a daily decline of as much as 0.3 percent after Moody's said Japanese banks had avoided the worst effects of the credit crisis. Japan had its rating raised one level by Moody's, which said the government will keep trying to restrain spending to reduce debt. The Yen traded at 105.78 against the dollar from 106.13 last week and 99.69 last quarter.


Technical

The U.S. dollar may continue the downtrend against the Japanese Yen; according to technical charts the market is in a bearish direction with confirmation of many indicators like RSI, which is in a downtrend, MACD breaks the signal line, Bollinger gives us a bearish signal by closing the candle below the middle band.

USD/JPY (Daily Chart)

The primary tendency breaks the standard error channel upper line.

Daily Chart

USD/JPY (4 Hour Chart)

The medium term breaks the trend line downwards.

hour chart

USD/JPY (Hourly Chart)

The Minor trend has made more then 61.8% retracement.

hourly chart

Resistance
106.45
107.20

Support
105.00
104.45


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