Gasoil ICE, Natural Gas, XAU Spot Gold, RBOB Gasoline

Forecast for 4th March 2013

Natural Gas April contract

Natural Gas held support at 3.390 but will need to beat 3.460 resistance for another test of 3.52/3.554 highs. It is unlikely we can push through here today as this is 10 month trend line resistance & we are getting quite over bought, but a break would target 3.592/613.

Below 3.453 support we should retest 3.399/386 support. A break lower today would not be a surprise & should target 3.339/315 where we could expect to see a bounce. If however we move below 3.320 we should fill the gap at 3.294/289 & find excellent support here.

Gasoil ICE March contract

Gasoil tested strong support at 920.25/918.75. Here we predicted a low for the week & the exact low was 917.25. Being so over sold a bounce is very likely from this point & above 926 we can target Friday’s high of 930 then Fibonacci resistance at 935.78. Watch for a high here at this stage. However a break higher could find tough resistance at 944.27/947.24.

Support at 918.75/917.25 is expected to hold again today if tested. However if we break lower look for 911.75.

RBOB Gasoline April contract

March RBOB tested the December high at 283.92/83 where we saw a possible bounce from here. We shot higher from 282.70. April needs to hold above 312 now for a test of resistance at 315/316. If we push higher look for 319, possibly 322 for a selling opportunity.

Below 312 risks a retest of 307/306 lows & good support here could hold again today. However a break lower targets 302.88.

XAU Spot Gold

Spot Gold broke 1584 & fell all the way back to 1565. Support today seen at 1569/67 and this could hold any weakness. However a break below 1565 could signal a retest of February lows at 1555.

It does look like we can push back above 1579/80 resistance for 1587/88. This could hold the top of the market today but if we start to push higher look for 1595.