Forecast for 30th January 2013
Gasoil ICE Feb contract
Gasoil had no trouble breaking through our resistance at 977.08/979.19 and has headed all the way towards our upper target of 989.25 so far reaching to 988. There is pretty tough resistance at 989.25 and we are getting very over bought so we need to be cautious here. However we have the momentum to push higher so go with a break looking for 992.25 then 994.25.
Support at 979.19 then 977 looks likely to hold any profit taking today. However below here look for the 9 day moving average and yesterday’s low in the 972.25/971.50 area.
| Long term levels | |
| 979.19 | Daily 61.8% Fibonacci |
| 976.75 | Last Week’s High |
| 963.5 | Daily 50% Fibonacci |
| 959.75 | Dec High |
| 959.25 | Last Week’s Low |
| 956.28 | 100 Day Moving Average |
| 951.98 | 100 Week Moving Average |
| 937.49 | 200 Day Moving Average |
| 917.88 | Weekly 50% Fibonacci |
Natural Gas Feb contract
Nat Gas headed lower as expected to hit our target of 3.209/06 where we predicted a low for the day and in fact the market bottomed at exactly 3.207.
The bounce has already taken us to our first resistance at 3.300/310 which we predicted would be tough to beat and so far we have not made it through here. However a break above 3.325 does look more likely today for further gains to a target of 3.374/386. If we manage a push through this resistance we should close the gap at 3.426.
The downside should be more limited today with a recovery possible in to the end of the week. There is a little support at 3.24 then yesterday’s low at 3.215/207. Below here we hit strong support from the 5 month trend line at 3.175 which should see us bounce but a break could keep the pressure on for 3.122 then 3.087.
| Long term levels | |
| 3.933 | 2012 High |
| 3.804 | 200 Week Moving Average |
| 3.748 | December High |
| 3.645 | Last Week’s High |
| 3.411 | Last Week’s Low |
| 3.348 | 100 Week Moving Average |
| 3.399 | 100 Day Moving Average |
| 3.079 | Weekly 38.2% Fibonacci |
| 3.006 | 200 Day Moving Average |
