WTI Light Crude, Brent Crude, Gasoil ICE, Natural Gas

Forecast for 23rd January 2013

WTI Light Crude Feb contract

WTI Crude Oil tested 95.12/94.95 which acted as good support once again and marked the low of the day. After struggling at 96.04/17 we broke higher and this acted as support before we hit our next target 96.92 (well almost, the high was 96.90). Here we exited all longs and tried shorts with a stop above 97.30. This is significant resistance in an over bought market so there is a risk of a sell off in to the end of the week now.

We have a gap to close at 96.40 and if we continue lower look for good support at 95.63/54 where we may see a quick bounce. Stop and reverse out of any longs, back in to shorts below 95.25 for a move to excellent intra day support at 94.95/85 where we can exit shorts and try longs with a stop below 94.45. Next downside target is then 93.87/73 which should mark the low for a correction.

A break above 97.30 however keeps the 6 month bull running towards 97.75/95 then 98.58. Above here 99.52 looks achievable.

Brent Crude March contract

March Brent Crude has made it to the next target of 112.47 but failed half way to 112.90. The last 3 weeks have been held by 112.90/113.29 on the top side, down to 109.60/38 and we may now be headed back towards the lower end of this range.

First target is 111.89/73 and below here look for 111.43/35, which is this week’s low. A break could then take us to 110.67/58. A push through 113.30 targets 113.58/63 then 114.31/50.

Gasoil ICE Feb contract

Gasoil has headed higher as expected hitting our next target of 972.25/972.75 but then halted half way to 974.00.

We are testing support at 698.71 but below here we expected to see 965.90. Failure here offers a buying opportunity at 964.58/963.70 with stops needed below 961.30.

The one month bull market shows no sign of a top just yet so a push through 974.00 is possible later in the week to keep the momentum going for a test of tough resistance at 977.08/979.19 which should trigger profit taking.

Natural Gas Feb contract

Nat Gas could not reach next target of 3.684 and failed to break Monday’s high at 3.645.

If we can hold above 3.579 we could retest 3.645 with a break higher allowing a move to the 3.684 target to take profit on some longs, but there is scope for a move as high as 3.744 this week. We exit all remaining longs here and sell in to shorts with a stop above 3.770.

Below 3.570 could trigger selling pressure down to 3.538 then a test of yesterday’s low at 3.513/3.504. This is short term 23.6% Fibonacci and 55 day moving average support and could therefore hold the low again today but longs need a stop below 3.471 for a test of excellent support at 3.432/3.424 and the chance of a low for the week if tested.