Review: EURUSD continues the upturn
Euro has generally been in demand over the past two days. Particularly speculators have bought extensively. We expect that at a coming breach above 132, we will see additional purchases as also the fairly large hedge funds will begin to buy more euros.
China: PMI service fell surprisingly to 52.1 from 53.5. The service sector is not that important in China, and therefore the announcement did not affect the market.
China’s coming leader stated that China will launch further stimulating measures within the construction and infrastructure sectors. The Asian equity indices increase strongly on this statement and this may have a positive effect on the FX market today.
Merkel stated that it is likely we will see a Greek 'haircut' in the near future.
Obama’s proposed solution to the 'fiscal cliff' problems was immediately rejected by the Republicans. -> The parties still disagree strongly, but we still expect that a solution will be found before the end of December.
Switzerland: There are persistent rumours that we will see a negative interest rate of no less than -1% on bank deposits.
Tom DeMark: Expects that the Chinese domestic equity market (Shanghai Comp) will rise by more than 40% from the current level. This may have a positive spill-over effect.
Market sentiment: The reduction of risks is slowly being mirrored through increases.
Investors are beginning to be optimistic, and this causes risky assets and currencies to skyrocket - like a New Year’s rocket. Let us see whether they can keep up momentum all the way into 2013, which we expect will be the case.
The problems relating to Greece/Spain and Fiscal Cliff – the main risks facing investors in December – must be resolved soon to pave the way for further increases.
We still expect that the problems will be solved and that, going into 2013, the financial market will be characterised by positive undertones.
Today’s most important events:
8:30 Sweden PMI service
10:28 UK PMI service
11:00 EU Retail sales
16:00 ISM service – the most important economic indicator of the day. In the US, the service sector accounts for more than 80% of the economy – therefore this indicator is important. Jyske Bank expects a minor decline. Consensus points to 53.5. If the figure turns out below 52.5, we will see a reaction in the financial market.
EURUSD (NEUTRAL): Tester toppen af intervallet
Forventer at EURUSD bryder over 132 niveauet inden udgangen af 2012:
'Fiscal Cliff': Der kommer en aftale er på plads inden udløb af december.
EURO: Redningspakken til Grækenland bliver endeligt vedtaget inden 13 dec.
Kina: December måneds nøgletal vil fortsætte med at vise positive takter. Spanien har sikret financiering et god stykke ind i 2013 => fokus på spanien bliver gemt væk for en periode.
FED: Vil på decembermødet udvide QE endnu engang og det vil især være de månedlige opkøb der øges.
Teknik: 50 MA er over 200 MA. RSI fortsætter op. MACD peger op. EURUSD er brudt op over den langsigtede trendlinie fra maj måned 2011.
Vi anbefaler, at man benytter tilbagefaldet til at samle EURUSD op. Hvorfor tror vi der kommer et tilbagefald:
EURUSD handler i toppen af 3måneders handelsintervallet.
Der er kraftig modstand i 131,40-131,72, Stochastics(nederst ) viser tegn på, at EURUSD kan få et mindre ' tilbagefald'inden en fortsættelse.
RSI (midten) viser stadig at momentum er op, men begynder at vise svaghed.
'Fiscal cliff', der er fortsat stor divergens imellem demokraterne og republikanerne. De leger 'chicken run'.
Modstand og støtte:
Nedsiden: Brud under 128,80 åbner mod 126,60.
Opsiden: Modstand 131,40-72 og dernæst 135.
EURUSD
EURJPY (NEUTRAL): Vi vurderer, at investorerne har overreageret på oppositionens målsætning om 2-3% inflation og massive stimuli fra centralbanken. Det kommer ikke til at ske. Men det er 50 / 50 om EURJPY fortsætter eller vender rundt her. Derfor står vi på sidelinien. Vi vurderer, at der er maksimal potentiale i EURJPY op til 110 niveauet
EURCHF(NEUTRAL): Schweiz: Der er vedvarende rygter om, at der kommer negative renter på bankindskud på hele -1%.
Ind til videre er der kun én bank der har meldt ud at de vil indføre så kraftig en negativ rente med virke fra januar 2013.
Problemet er, at danner de præcedens for de andre banker, så kan vi få en situation hvor investorerne trækker midlerne ud af bankerne og schweiz, hvilket vil give negativt pres på CHF.
Vi forventer ikke, at det vil være en 'gamechanger' før alle de andre banker følger trop. Derfor forventer vi at EURCHF fortsat vil handle i intervallet 120-124,5.
EURTRY (SALG): Anbefaler SALG af EURTRY. Stop/loss 234,04.
Vi anbefaler at justere stop til entry ved gensyn med 230,50.
Chart: Shanghai Comp.
