Australian Dollar special report
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Managing real business currency exposures
Wed, Oct 29 2008, 08:47 GMT
by Clifford Bennett
FxMax
Real business exposures need to be managed in a very real way in current markets.
Option spreads are wider, and volatility pricing is likely to remain high for some time. This daily report will contain a brief comment on the AUD/USD, but significantly we will carry out an on-going theoretical management of both export and import exposures, as well as capital risk management such as investments overseas, or local investments undertaken by offshore investors.
The starting point is AUD .6225. We will provide buying and selling signals on the basis that a full one year of projected export/import flows are being managed, and in the case of investments, 100% of the value of the investment is being managed.
AUD .6410
A very strong rally, and while encouraging we still have to be a little cautious. Our exporters are hedged 40% at very good levels, but we need importers to take a some advantage of this rally just in case it turns out to be a fading event.
Above .6560 should further confirm the absolute low has been seen. Our view remains a massive US dollar collapse, AUD rally at some point, but we still need to be a little watchful for another last AUD sell off as a prelude to that US dollar implosion.
On the day the rally looks a touch tired in the .6530 .6250 range, .6470 .6330 on the narrow, minor support also at .6360. Under .6360 would suggest further caution that this rally was a momentary spike only.
Published on
Wed, Oct 29 2008, 08:52 GMT
Archive
- Managing real business currency exposures
Published On Wed, Oct 29 2008, 08:47 GMT
- Australian Dollar struggles even with RBA support!
Published On Tue, Oct 28 2008, 05:47 GMT
- Managing real business currency exposures
Published On Mon, Oct 27 2008, 08:53 GMT
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