Last week’s currency trading review
The EUR/USD the main pair in the spotlight and a big mover last week with a break above 1.3000 leading to a quick run up to 1.3140. The September high was just above near 1.3170 and is the natural target for the bulls. On Friday we saw a large pullback however from 1.3100 to 1.3020 and we could be on the way to test support first.
USD/JPY is back above Y79 but as always is not moving quickly and will require fresh news to test key levels such as Y80. A run of better than forecast US data has created the uptrend and the Yen crosses have been eager to take advantage with EUR/JPY gaining from Y100 to Y103.
Currency Movement last week
EUR/USD was up +0.55% closing at 1.3025, after opening the week at 1.2956.
USD/JPY was up +1.11% closing at 79.30, after opening at 78.42.
GBP/USD was down -0.39% closing at 1.6005 after opening at 1.6067.
AUD/USD was +0.98% closing at 1.0332 after opening at 1.0231.
This Week’s Trading Preview
Our preference: Short positions below 1.306 with targets @ 1.299 & 1.2955 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.306 look for further upside with 1.3075 & 1.312 as targets.
Comment: a break below 1.299 would trigger a drop towards 1.2955.
Forex Economic Data Preview
In the States; On Wednesday, New Home Sales forecast at 386k vs. 373k previously. Also Wednesday, FOMC meeting forecast to hold at 0.25% and keep the QE the same. Focus on the Statement to see whether any mention of the improving Jobs data will get a mention. On Thursday, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 366k vs. 388k previously. On Friday, Q3 GDP forecast at 1.8% vs. 1.3% previously Q/Y. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
In the Eurozone; On Wednesday, German Flash Manufacturing PMI forecast at 48.1 vs. 47.4 previously. Flash German Services forecast at 50.1 vs. 49.7 previously. Also ECB President Draghi Speaks. On Friday, Spanish Unemployment Rate forecast at 25.2 vs. 24.6 previously. In the UK; On Wednesday, BOE Governor King Speaks. ON Thursday, Q3 GDP forecast at 0.6% vs. -0.4% q/q. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
In Japan; On Friday, National Core CPI forecast at -0.2% vs. -0.3% previously. In Australia; on Wednesday, Q3 CPI forecast at 0.5% Q/Q.