Last week’s currency trading review
The EUR/USD was very volatile last week falling heavily on Thursday when no specific plan was announced by the ECB at their meeting but then staging a dramatic reversal on Friday to end at new highs. Spanish and Italian bond yields are falling as the market prices in action by the ECB that may include outright buying of the troubled nations bonds. Euro crosses which have all been in strong downtrends are enjoying gains and are beginning to unwind with the EUR/GBP and EUR/AUD in particular big movers.
The USD/JPY rallied on Friday the strong US NonFarm Figures and EUR/JPY short covering both adding to the Yen selling. The BOJ meet this week and will want the gains to continue as the exporter nation’s economy struggles to gain traction. The other Central bank in play this week is the RBA from Australia expected to hold rates at 3.5% and release a neutral statement in a careful watch and wait approach to further monetary policy moves.
Currency Movement last week
EUR/USD was up +0.57% closing at 1.2385, after opening the week at 1.2315.
USD/JPY was down -0.01% closing at 78.45, after opening at 78.46.
GBP/USD was down -0.74% closing at 1.5634 after opening at 1.5750.
AUD/USD was up +0.77% closing at 1.0559 after opening at 1.0478.
This Week’s Trading Preview
EUR/USD intraday: bullish bias above 1.2325.
Pivot: 1.2325
Our preference: Long positions above 1.2325 with targets @ 1.244 & 1.2475 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.2325 look for further downside with 1.229 & 1.222 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
Key levels
1.25
1.2475
1.244
1.23965 last
1.2325
1.229
1.222
Forex Economic Data Preview
In the States; On Monday, FED Chief Bernanke speaks. On Tuesday, Bernanke speaks again. On Wednesday, Q2 Productivity is forecast at 1.5% vs. -.9% previously. On Thursday, June Trade Balance forecast at -47.4bn vs. -48.7bn previously. Also, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 371k vs. 365k previously. . We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
In the Eurozone; On Tuesday, Italian Q@ GDP forecast at -0.7% vs. -0.8% previously. On Wednesday, German June Industrial Production is forecast at -0.7% vs. 1.6% previously m/m. In the UK, June UK Manufacturing Production is forecast at -3.9% vs. 1.2% previously. On Wednesday, BOE Inflation Report. On Thursday, June Trade Balance forecast at -8.5bn vs. -8.4bn previously. On Friday, July PPI is forecast at 1.3% vs. -2.2% previously. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
In Japan; On Thursday, BOJ Rate Announcement forecast to hold at 0.1% vs. 0.1% previously. In Australia; On Tuesday, RBA Rate Announcement forecast to hold at 3.5%. On Thursday, July Employment change forecast at 10.3k vs. -27k previously. Unemployment Rate is forecast at 5.3% vs. 5.2% previously.
