Last week’s currency trading review

The EUR/USD is dominating the currency market and the headlines lately with political deadlock in Greece and a new push from the left to spend more money and focus on Growth rather than debt. The Greece political talks post elections are still continuing and as of writing no breakthrough seems likely. If Greece is set to leave the Eurozone than the potential contagion risk will pressure the EUR/USD and global stocks until a clear result is seen.

EUR/USD was down -1.26% currently at 1.2918, after opening the week at 1.3081.

USD/JPY was up flat currently at 79.92, after opening at 79.86.

GBP/USD is down -0.55% currently at 1.6066 after opening at 1.6154

AUD/USD is down -1.57% currently at 1.0018 after opening at 1.0175.

This Week’s Trading Preview

Trend of the Week:-

EUR/USD 14/05/2012 01:09

1 week Trend: (=) 1 month Trend: (=)

EUR/USD intraday: capped by a negative trend line.

Pivot: 1.2925

Our preference: Short positions below 1.2925 with targets @ 1.2875 & 1.286 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.2925 look for further upside with 1.2955 & 1.298 as targets.

Comment: the pair remains capped by a declining trend line and should face a weakness.

Key levels

1.298

1.2955

1.2925

1.2894 last

1.2875

1.286

1.2825


Forex Economic Data Preview

In the States; On Tuesday, April CPI forecast at 2.4% vs. 2.7% previously y/y. Also April Retail Sales forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.8% previously. On Wednesday, April Industrial Production forecast at 0.5% vs. 0.0% previously. Also late on Wednesday we have FOMC Meeting Minutes with potentially major market moving comments on QE3 prospects. On Thursday, Weekly Jobless Claims previously at 367k. On Friday, Canadian CPI forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.4% previously. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

In the Eurozone; On Monday, March Industrial Production forecast at 0.7% vs. 0.8% previously. On Tuesday, German GDP Q1 forecast at 0.1% vs. -0.2% q/q. Also released, May German ZEW forecast at 40 vs. 40.7 previously. April CPI forecast at 2.6% vs. 2.7% previously. In the UK, On Wednesday, Jobless Claims Change forecast at 5k April. March Unemployment is forecast at 8.4% vs. 8.3% previously. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

In Japan; On Thursday, Q4 GDP forecast at 0.9% vs. -0.2% Q/Q previously. Also released, March Industrial Production previously at 13.9% y/y. In Australia; On Tuesday, RBA minutes released. On Wednesday, Q1 PPI inputs forecast at 0.0% vs 0.5% previously Q/Q. Q1 PPI Outputs forecast at 0.0% vs. 0.1% previously Q/Q.