BIAS: As long as 83.85 is overcome this can see gains - but not directly
MAIN ANALYSIS: Price rallied to 4 points above the 83.59 projection and was followed by the larger 40 point correction. The bigger question now is whether this recycles back to around 83.24 or sees direct follow-through in what should be the final leg higher in the section of the rally to 84.80. Since we're mid-way in a rally and even the larger target at 84.80 will require a correction on the way I'd rather suggest holding off and looking for the current rally to confirm. Basically this needs first to push above 83.80-83 but stall below 84.17 for a correction lower. If this earlier move is seen followed by a correction to around 83.50-70 we should then see the extension above 84.17 to reach 84.76-80. From there a much deeper correction is expected - as much as 250 points.
COUNTER ANALYSIS: Any earlier failure to break above 83.83 would risk seeing a recycling back to the 83.24 low. I'm not really in favour of this since the projection from there already requires the normal maximum. It can just make it… but only at a stretch. Thus on this scenario be aware of the potential for a shortfall and even a complex running correction that could see lows moving higher.
Only below 83.00-07 will concern and risk deeper losses to 82.75 and 82.20-53.
For more information regarding the support & resistance and medium term analysis please see the attached PDF file.