BIAS: While 1.2405-25 caps we should see extension to 1.2287-11 before a base is seen
MAIN ANALYSIS: The day began slowly and appeared to map out a triangle before breaking lower but then exceeding the 1.2455 target and extending to 1.2364. There was a small - but very, very brief pullback from 1.2421 that I am counting as the expected reaction but will treat this with caution. I feel that the correction from the 1.2364 low may well deepen further over Asian hours and probably a maximum around 1.2425-30 but then head lower to the 1.2287-11 area - and allow for a little lower - perhaps around 1.2260-65. Take care around this lower area - and because of the limited correction from 1.2421 ensure that you see good bullish trade set ups - otherwise we may be in a stronger push lower that should not be fought...
COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only an earlier break above 1.2446 would suggest the final decline has fallen short of expectations and could then continue to see ragged and choppy gains to 1.2473 minimum and potentially as high as 1.2500-28.
For more information regarding the support & resistance and medium term outlook please see the attached PDF file.
HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG